Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[weathergeek]

59 minutes ago, DanBaynes said:

I've been reading along for the last month or so, I can't really add much to the technical discussion. 

However, I've been reading every winter since about 2010. In winter's past when reading along we have always needed everything to fall perfectly into place to get the sort of charts that are being shown atm in Fi, if it didn't fall perfectly into place we normally miss out all together with the gfs normally reverting to zonal mush. 

Seems at the moment though even if things don't look prefect eariler on we are still seeing the cold charts in fi. Which can only be a good thing. 

I maybe talking total rubbish, just my own opinion, don't really post much in here.

I'm like you too, been reading since 2011, learnt a lot but never enough to post much but I've picked up on what people have said we need and what we don't want to see and like you, this is all sounding much better than we've seen in recent years!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z mean could not be more strongly indicative of a Scandi high at T240:

More good news, the FIM9 is on board (surprised to see this is still available after it lost to the FV3 in the race to succeed the GFS) anyway here it is at T240:

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM 12z mean could not be more strongly indicative of a Scandi high at T240:

More good news, the FIM9 is on board (surprised to see this is still available after it lost to the FV3 in the race to succeed the GFS) anyway here it is at T240:

Some nice posts from you tonight mike . That ECM mean is looking tasty . Just got that feeling something really peachy is round the corner . 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

That is the worse possible chart to post lol

Not least because snow in the continent can travel over 500 miles across countries, yet in the UK it can’t survive beyond 50 miles inland from the east coast lol, and the 10 nearest the coast would probably be rain anyway. Never understood the difficulty in getting snow across the country from that direction. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not bad set of 12z ensembles from GFS with some members bringing in the cold as early as the 20th Nov

 

Edited November 10, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Mike Poole]

Just to keep everyone abreast off ALL possibilities, here's the CMA at T240, enjoy! Not sure what the eyes are looking at mind!

Edited November 10, 2018 by Mike Poole

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

I said I wasn’t going to look at the charts until 1st December. Chasing a Scandi Block on the 10th Nov , it’s going to be a long one. 

Just to add, the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the CPC/NOAA continuing with its very positive height signal over Scandinavia, supporting the idea of blocking to the East/North-East of the U.K. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

While the chart does have negative anomalies in the mid and Western Atlantic with a slack South to South-West upper flow over the UK, it’s possible the Atlantic trough may stay far enough away to cause much trouble. Compared to recent days, probably enough encouragement to suggest the weather becoming more calm and generally more settled for the UK.

Edited November 10, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[SMU]

A good cluster of T2Ms for debilt

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A good cluster of T2Ms for debilt

Yes, looks a good bet the easterly flow will reach the Netherlands,we should enjoy a cool continental flow with the nights getting progressively colder as the mainland cools down..Central Europe initially but then the colder air spreading west to inc Germany by day 10..

I'm wondering if things may start happening in the strat courtesy of this block ...there is some very high 850s into the Arctic on EC this evening..although i'm not entirely sure of the mechanisms, would this block aid wave development high up?

 

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

 

The irony of this evolution is that the warm air advection brings +12C uppers in!  For now!

Checked the raw ECM data, yes up to 17C on Thursday (not sure if such mild temperatures will make it through the swear filter on this thread? ), but an inversion starts to take place after that, and even with uppers of 12C, some central areas are expected to reach 8C maximum by Saturday/Sunday. 

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I want to take a step back from the individual runs, and kind of consider my overall impression of model runs of all sorts over the last month or so, but first let's go back a bit.

In April, May I was observing model runs in Spring that, on average, I hadn't seen before, and on that basis and a few other indicators, I felt that there was a much higher likelihood of a hot summer for the UK, which duly happened (posted my prediction here 5 May).

I feel in a similar situation now.

I've not previously watched Autumn model runs prior to a front loaded cold winter, bear in mind I started watching the models in 2011, after the cold Decembers of 2009, 2010.  The models (on average) are different this late Autumn compared to those I've viewed before at this time of year.  The propensity for blocking will have escaped no one, but more important in my view is the complete, almost total lack of charts even in FI showing a zonal barrage.  Yes there has been wind and rain but it's hardly been swept through on a rampant jet.

My current view after all that, for what it's worth, is that there will be a sharp turn to cold prior to the turn of the month, then a mild blip, and then further deeper cold spell later in December after some stratospheric disturbance.  

Look forward to that verifying...

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Checked the raw ECM data, yes up to 17C on Thursday (not sure if such mild temperatures will make it through the swear filter on this thread? ), but an inversion starts to take place after that, and even with uppers of 12C, some central areas are expected to reach 8C maximum by Saturday/Sunday. 

Classic inversion !!Lovely, thats exactly the kind of weather i like in Autumn .. likely misty/foggy and cold enough were you can see your breath, quite rare in Novembers nowadays so will be quite notable imho.

[BlazeStorm]

56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just to keep everyone abreast off ALL possibilities, here's the CMA at T240, enjoy! Not sure what the eyes are looking at mind!

If that high shunted a little further SW there would problems for Europe

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, BlazeStorm said:

If that high shunted a little further SW there would problems for Europe

It’s the CMA ...

 my cat would draw a chart with a better chance of verification that that ........ (not true  btw)

[BlazeStorm]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It’s the CMA ...

 my cat would draw a chart with a better chance of verification that that ........ (not true  btw)

Quoting on the chart, whether it verifies or not is another matter. It's refreshing to see ridiculous possibilities so early on!

[Met4Cast]

I love how "nice" this thread is, I think splitting them and making a separate model thread for cold lovers was one of the best ideas!

The 18z is rolling out now but the 12z had more ensemble support for cold weather in the extended, as long as we see that trend continuing then it's easier to see through the chaos of the op runs.

Anomaly charts and ensembles are our friend at that range

[Spah1]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I love how "nice" this thread is, I think splitting them and making a separate model thread for cold lovers was one of the best ideas!

The 18z is rolling out now but the 12z had more ensemble support for cold weather in the extended, as long as we see that trend continuing then it's easier to see through the chaos of the op runs.

Anomaly charts and ensembles are our friend at that range

Couldn’t agree more. This one isn’t as formal as the usual mod thread but more serious than the banter and moan thread. 

Well done Mods

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Couldn’t agree more. This one isn’t as formal as the usual mod thread but more serious than the banter and moan thread. 

Well done Mods

Agreed. I think a bit of banters OK as long as it doesn't derail the thread. It seems to have worked well so far, hopefully it'll continue that way when it gets busier.

Edited November 10, 2018 by matt111

[Mike Poole]

Hey that's some block on the GFS 18z run at  as early as T168!

Edited November 10, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Met4Cast]

GFS more amplified than the 12z at 168hrs, could be a whopper this one

[feb1991blizzard]

6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

First out the blocks is the icon & a good start!

GFS 18z similar to that Icon 12z.

[Mike Poole]

Blocks-R-Us

Edited November 10, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Blocks-R-Us

This is going to be a stonker!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is going to be a stonker!

Don't curse it! 

[Derecho]

Retrogression to Greenland imminent? Much better from the 18z