Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[jules216]

who fancies some spaghetti for dinner? with a touch of AO sauce

trending downwards lately, must be all that Alaskan blocking and eastern CONUS through. actually NOPE this time its our turn

[shaky]

24 minutes ago, jules216 said:

who fancies some spaghetti for dinner? with a touch of AO sauce

trending downwards lately, must be all that Alaskan blocking and eastern CONUS through. actually NOPE this time its our turn

Any news on ecm!!better or worse!!!

[ICE COLD]

Just now, shaky said:

Any news on ecm!!better or worse!!!

Up to T144 so far and looking ok . 

[feb1991blizzard]

144 very good, a little surprised at the 120-144 evolution but all the same, looking like a good run will ensue now with all that WAA into the pole.

[booferking]

ECM GEM almost a match side by side 144hr.

Edited November 10, 2018 by booferking

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

I'm liking this run, some block developing here.  

And the next frame:

Unstoppable!

The irony of this evolution is that the warm air advection brings +12C uppers in!  For now!

Edited November 10, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Met4Cast]

Lovely. 

Undercutting, heights building North and cold pooling into Eastern Europe with the UK as it's destination 

[ICE COLD]

Oh yes sir @feb1991blizzard . ECM T192 - 

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh yes sir @feb1991blizzard . ECM T192 - 

Not too impressed with the 240 though - flat.

[WalsallWeather123]

We have half a chance of an easterly looking at the models. The problem is there's no real cold pool to tap into. OK it'll be chilly but not cold enough for snow IMO and it will be very dry. Frosty nights- yes, snow- probably not. 

[Leo97t]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

We have half a chance of an easterly looking at the models. The problem is there's no real cold pool to tap into. OK it'll be chilly but not cold enough for snow IMO and it will be very dry. Frosty nights- yes, snow- probably not. 

Yes I would love to see the easterly be delayed until we had some decent cold pooling of at least - 10 uppers

[DanBaynes]

I've been reading along for the last month or so, I can't really add much to the technical discussion. 

However, I've been reading every winter since about 2010. In winter's past when reading along we have always needed everything to fall perfectly into place to get the sort of charts that are being shown atm in Fi, if it didn't fall perfectly into place we normally miss out all together with the gfs normally reverting to zonal mush. 

Seems at the moment though even if things don't look prefect eariler on we are still seeing the cold charts in fi. Which can only be a good thing. 

I maybe talking total rubbish, just my own opinion, don't really post much in here.

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not too impressed with the 240 though - flat.

Yer went a bit peak tong days 9 and 10 . Only one run tho . Could go the way of the GFS if it went further on . All the signs have been very good today . 

[WalsallWeather123]

JMA not great compared to yesterday

[Met4Cast]

The soon to be new GFS model is hardly an inspiration either

[WalsallWeather123]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The soon to be new GFS model is hardly an inspiration either

Winter over lol. Genuinely can see this being a 2016. Full of hopes but nothing comes to fruition

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

JMA not great compared to yesterday

A case of boom, boom, bin it, innit?

[tinybill]

going  the right  way!!!

[WalsallWeather123]

3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

going  the right  way!!!

That is the worse possible chart to post lol

[SMU]

ECM is within touching distance at day 10..

Remember mid November is about as least a probability you can get to get an Easterly !

So this is good news below !

[Derecho]

Yup the ECM is a bit.... boring.

Whilst we get the attempted ridging over Scandi and some more settled weather the polar vortex consolidates over the arctic and Greenland right where we don't want it. Still some interesting ens members but the GFS parallel looks pretty benign. Still its not even winter yet

 

[Spah1]

I said I wasn’t going to look at the charts until 1st December. Chasing a Scandi Block on the 10th Nov , it’s going to be a long one. 

Edited November 10, 2018 by Spah1

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As far as I’m concerned all seems on track....so on we hunt

 

BFTP

[matt111]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I said I wasn’t going to look at the charts until 1st December. Chasing a Scandi Block on the 10th Nov , it’s going by to a long one. 

Don’t feel too bad about that, it’s all part of the fun. 

[Mike Poole]

I want to take a step back from the individual runs, and kind of consider my overall impression of model runs of all sorts over the last month or so, but first let's go back a bit.

In April, May I was observing model runs in Spring that, on average, I hadn't seen before, and on that basis and a few other indicators, I felt that there was a much higher likelihood of a hot summer for the UK, which duly happened (posted my prediction here 5 May).

I feel in a similar situation now.

I've not previously watched Autumn model runs prior to a front loaded cold winter, bear in mind I started watching the models in 2011, after the cold Decembers of 2009, 2010.  The models (on average) are different this late Autumn compared to those I've viewed before at this time of year.  The propensity for blocking will have escaped no one, but more important in my view is the complete, almost total lack of charts even in FI showing a zonal barrage.  Yes there has been wind and rain but it's hardly been swept through on a rampant jet.

My current view after all that, for what it's worth, is that there will be a sharp turn to cold prior to the turn of the month, then a mild blip, and then further deeper cold spell later in December after some stratospheric disturbance.  

Edited November 10, 2018 by Mike Poole