Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes a lot better feb . Let's hope they become even better . 

Yes, the only problem i can see at the moment is that the eps and GEFS do show signs of going flatter right at the end, which would tie in with the Met and BBC forecasts, the Met are a lot better with their 30 dayer these days, and not sure the scandi ridge is sharp enough this time and doesnt ridge into the pole as much as to do damage to the strat in order to buy us more time, BUT - overall im pretty happy though, at least there is interest, which has not always been the case for large parts of the last 4 or 5 winters.

[booferking]

Some good ones in the 06 suit would bite my hand off to be in this position come end of Nov

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the only problem i can see at the moment is that the eps and GEFS do show signs of going flatter right at the end, which would tie in with the Met and BBC forecasts, the Met are a lot better with their 30 dayer these days, and not sure the scandi ridge is sharp enough this time and doesnt ridge into the pole as much as to do damage to the strat in order to buy us more time, BUT - overall im pretty happy though, at least there is interest, which has not always been the case for large parts of the last 4 or 5 winters.

Well the Met haven't been over the last month...check what they were saying a fortnight ago for the upcoming period, temps largely normal to colder than average and short lived milder interludes (or words to that effect).

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes a lot better feb . Let's hope they become even better . 

Yeah quite a few Scandi highs in there, nothing spectacular but many of these runs see attempts at retrogression to Greenland in far FI.

Nothing to catch my interest until it appears in mid range but there are a few interesting options even at T240. The parallel is better then the OP at T240 also (left).
 

Some of the more interesting runs at mid range (T240)

   

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the only problem i can see at the moment is that the eps and GEFS do show signs of going flatter right at the end, which would tie in with the Met and BBC forecasts, the Met are a lot better with their 30 dayer these days, and not sure the scandi ridge is sharp enough this time and doesnt ridge into the pole as much as to do damage to the strat in order to buy us more time, BUT - overall im pretty happy though, at least there is interest, which has not always been the case for large parts of the last 4 or 5 winters.

Yer it may not happen at the first bite of the cherry , but if we can get to that position of strong heights to the north and east , then we may get a second/third bite of the cherry . And that's what we want . It usually happens that way . 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, the only problem i can see at the moment is that the eps and GEFS do show signs of going flatter right at the end, which would tie in with the Met and BBC forecasts, the Met are a lot better with their 30 dayer these days, and not sure the scandi ridge is sharp enough this time and doesnt ridge into the pole as much as to do damage to the strat in order to buy us more time, BUT - overall im pretty happy though, at least there is interest, which has not always been the case for large parts of the last 4 or 5 winters.

Part of the problem with scandy highs is if they don't sustain or manage to retrogress then that opens the door for a protracted spell of Atlantic weather for the UK.

Clearly Exeter and the BBC monthly authors do not believe this scandysceuro high is going to pull far enough west to deflect the jetstream south- i'm still on the fence longer term but if we do indeed see the anticyclone slip away the natural progression IMHO is for the northern arm to fire up and well, a stormy +NAO setting up for later in the month.

 

[Summer Sun]

27 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

6z was one of the milder ones within the ensembles

Unsurprisingly, really.

Edit: These are yesterdays ENS.

This is today's not sure why that's stuck on yesterday 

[Methuselah]

I don't think the question is when or if, but where from, it's: which direction will the initial attack of cold come? I know we all tend to concentrate on Scandi (as HP in that region tends to be long-lived) but really, in all honesty, I thinks it's more probable that an initial surge will come from the north or northwest...

Of course a Beast From The East is our ultimate goal, but, IMO, a broad north to northwesterly flow with ridging in the Atlantic can be a good way of getting deep cold into Europe and Scandinavia, thus setting things up for further down the line...?

I don't pretend to know where the cold will come or when it'll come, but (for some reason) I am more confident than usual that it will come. IMO, the operative word this year is PATIENCE!

[northwestsnow]

Looks like Exeter have made a backtrack towards a colder outlook today, how strange, there appears to be no consistency whatsoever at the moment.

Times like these i do love a steve murr/tamara/gp type post because it looks like even the pros are unsure..

[feb1991blizzard]

41 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well the Met haven't been over the last month...check what they were saying a fortnight ago for the upcoming period, temps largely normal to colder than average and short lived milder interludes (or words to that effect).

Yes, looks like i set myself up for whats just happened - see 16-30 Met thread.

[bluearmy]

Of course the gfsp is the best verfiryjng fi operational product at the moment ....

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Of course the gfsp is the best verfiryjng fi operational product at the moment ....

Well Exeter appear to be flip-flopping at the moment Blue, the longer term prognosis screams they really don't know?

Unsettled periods later in the month with snow on northern hills doesn't sound like the jet roaring away to the north and a euro high to me?

It is suggestive of a PM flow/north-westerly..

[coldwinter]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Of course the gfsp is the best verfiryjng fi operational product at the moment ....

A very blocked 6z from the p, wouldnt surprise me if the 12z normal GFS goes backed to a more blocked regime, the overreaction on single OP runs is laughable on here, you'd think we were staring down the barrel of rampant zonality! Nobody is claiming a big freeze just yet, how can people be disappointed at heights trying to build to our NE repeatedly and further attacks on the PV is baffling to me! 

[northwestsnow]

6Z parallel is showing a bit more warming in the strat at 10Hpa.

[coldie]

6 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

A very blocked 6z from the p, wouldnt surprise me if the 12z normal GFS goes backed to a more blocked regime, the overreaction on single OP runs is laughable on here, you'd think we were staring down the barrel of rampant zonality! Nobody is claiming a big freeze just yet, how can people be disappointed at heights trying to build to our NE repeatedly and further attacks on the PV is baffling to me! 

What's even more laughable is certain people on here taking every single meto update as gospel, of course the updates are going to change from time to time but come on it could be a lot worse!

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not sure I’m seeing that. 

The ECM clusters are pretty solid on the Scandi High scenario and the 00z run from the GFS showed something similar, it’s not unsuaul to see the GFS throw in a zonal pattern now and again in the extended.

“Deep cold” isn’t on the cards at the moment, but certainly surface cold is with things likely turning much colder should the high retrogress towards greenland, not a very strong signal for that at the moment but it’s likely outside of the models reach.

That's quite significant. 85‰ of the ensembles have the Atlantic way way back. A big number. Odds starting to favour something cooler for the last third of the month, whether that's UK High or Scandi High. Just the chance of the block slipping slightly east to allow a more southerly input but unlikely. 

[Methuselah]

It's almost here - the run to end all runs!

Anything like this will do nicely: 

And what's more - a thread dedicated entirely to THFC!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P4 from the GEFS legacy 00z run

 

25th November 2010  not saying it would get as cold as it did in 2010 but nice to see some of these charts in the ensembles rather than a raging Atlantic.

06z GEFS 

P5  

P7  

some deep cold to the east on P13 

P19 

looks like possibly a dip in pressure after mid month in Greenland then a rise again

Reykjavik pressure chart starting to look interesting with a possible rise in pressure after mid month with a couple taking it above 1045 hpa 

scandi high (Oslo) looking to gain strength with some also getting towards 1045 hpa

  

[feb1991blizzard]

A few frames later that p4 would certainly leave a legacy in uk winter historical setups

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And what's more - a thread dedicated entirely to THFC!

Oh no ..... just noticed ..... looks like this winter will promise much and deliver nowt then ........

[booferking]

Great start to the 12z suit Icon.

 

Would love to see the UKMO go out further looking better than Icon 144hr and the Icon a belter at 180hr.

Edited November 9, 2018 by booferking

[SMU]

Good start to the 12z

icon @180

[northwestsnow]

GFS/UKMO quite different at 144 this evening.

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS/UKMO quite different at 144 this evening.

Good way bad way

[Rayth]

We find ourself in the middle of a Mexican stand off ! Let’s see what the block is made of ...