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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

EC mean suggestive of a cooler/foggy/frosty set up post mid month.

I'd suggest the above looks a good bet but anything thereafter is well and truly up in the air.

Its only my two cents but i have a feeling any fledgling scndy high is going to need some help from the azores to assist it not sinking away longer term..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

In the near term it looks like the UKMO is the most aggressive with increased heights..

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

Any cold however is still 10-15 days away albeit the GFS does get there in the end (minimal snow but it would be mighty chilly at the surface)..

GFSOPEU00_384_7.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

While we wait for 6z it might be worth mentioning the updated BBC monthly is not pretty reading, talks of above average temps and high rainfall totals in the NW, so they clearly expect the high to our E/NE to get blown away - 

Obv not what most on here inc me would want to see.

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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While we wait for 6z it might be worth mentioning the updated BBC monthly is not pretty reading, talks of above average temps and high rainfall totals in the NW, so they clearly expect the high to our E/NE to get blown away - 

Obv not what most on here inc me would want to see.

Just to add further to that they last updated that forecast at 10:00 on Wednesday 7 November so 2 days ago.

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

A lot of talking today about energy undercut from Atlantic this morning,but what would really help would be a creation of a shortwave/cyclonic area in eastern Med.maybe even around Black sea would do. Like with -NAO you often get a gulf of Genoa low, for longevity of Scandi high the creation of eastern Europe low or eastern Med. Low would do no harm at all, we shall see

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
23 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi Dan, I am not privy to these charts but have access to speaking to the forecast team under our portal service arrangements. They still expect the peak of the UK mild spell around the 17th of this month. So winds likely to be southerly. Then a build of the European ridge over the British Isles should start to see a veer in the wind flow pattern. However, a split in the jet will remain crucial to the positioning of the high centre in the longer term period .Energy undercutting and a weaker zonal Polar flow should help retrogression . This is still being shown in their own model towards the last 3 rd of the month, so possible winds could veer north of east and then we can tap into some real cold. We will see.

C

Morning all, picture below taken on our local mountain a few years ago. Certainly, no scenes like that presently, just barren snowless tops during this remarkable warm Autumn in most of Europe. Some resorts are due to open in 3 weeks time, think its going to be a struggle as there is very little snow to work with. Regarding the hunt for cold, remember I told you recently a slow burner development of a Scandinavian Block , sometimes produces the best results and that's what our experts think this morning. Their model still shows the mildness to peak in the British Isles towards next weekend around 17th . Strengthening high pressure over Scandinavia around 23rd. Towards the end of the month , ratings increase for retrogressive  developments with a split in the polar jet to favour this process. They also indicate of some divergence aloft over Western/ Central Europe with surface pressure fall  and upper level trough and a backing of the wind flow , but one they say to watch. Early days and as I say a slow burner in process but looking good for a cold end to the month .

C

800_P2131034.jpg

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
27 minutes ago, booferking said:

Just to add further to that they last updated that forecast at 10:00 on Wednesday 7 November so 2 days ago.

And to add to that it’s the BBC

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
8 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS 06hr would be while sore on the eye

gfs-5-360.png

gfs-0-360.png

Yes my eyes are burning after looking at that. There’s definitely been a movement towards this type of pattern over the last 24 hours. What a shame 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
10 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS 06hr would be while sore on the eye

gfs-5-360.png

gfs-0-360.png

No worries, it’s just left it’s halloween costume on. 

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Yes my eyes are burning after looking at that. There’s definitely been a movement towards this type of pattern over the last 24 hours. What a shame 

It will feel like a kick down below, if after the painful warmth of next week, we ended up with this chart for late November. 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Yes my eyes are burning after looking at that. There’s definitely been a movement towards this type of pattern over the last 24 hours. What a shame 

Not sure I’m seeing that. 

The ECM clusters are pretty solid on the Scandi High scenario and the 00z run from the GFS showed something similar, it’s not unsuaul to see the GFS throw in a zonal pattern now and again in the extended.

256FEADB-D08A-4B12-B6E8-71197BB56C87.thumb.png.747a06fcc19d3fe9d2f43adaac4b43c3.png

“Deep cold” isn’t on the cards at the moment, but certainly surface cold is with things likely turning much colder should the high retrogress towards greenland, not a very strong signal for that at the moment but it’s likely outside of the models reach.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not sure I’m seeing that. 

The ECM clusters are pretty solid on the Scandi High scenario and the 00z run from the GFS showed something similar, it’s not unsuaul to see the GFS throw in a zonal pattern now and again in the extended.

256FEADB-D08A-4B12-B6E8-71197BB56C87.thumb.png.747a06fcc19d3fe9d2f43adaac4b43c3.png

“Deep cold” isn’t on the cards at the moment, but certainly surface cold is with things likely turning much colder should the high retrogress towards greenland, not a very strong signal for that at the moment but it’s likely outside of the models reach.

Yes, i guessed the ECM clusters would look very good.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
7 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Wow, 6z is one ugly run. Will be interesting to see ensembles.

Appalling, I feel it could be a mild outlier.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)

6z was one of the milder ones within the ensembles

44924A68-4910-4039-8F8A-711F5F21069E.thumb.png.0235ac21521cc5bf175f5f6abed5a8b1.png

Unsurprisingly, really.

Edit: These are yesterdays ENS.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

All change. Again! As hope from the east appears to fade, that from the north-west seems to increase...? The third alternative might be best left unvisited.

Netweather GFS Image

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

6z was one of the milder ones within the ensembles

44924A68-4910-4039-8F8A-711F5F21069E.thumb.png.0235ac21521cc5bf175f5f6abed5a8b1.png

Unsurprisingly, really.

The 6z suite is a lot better than the 0z definitely.

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted (edited)

GFS 6z very progressive - compare the operational with the parallel (FV3) at day 9!

GFSOPEU06_216_1.png

GFSPARAEU06_216_1.png

 

Edited by mulzy
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

6z was one of the milder ones within the ensembles

44924A68-4910-4039-8F8A-711F5F21069E.thumb.png.0235ac21521cc5bf175f5f6abed5a8b1.png

Unsurprisingly, really.

That's yesterday's Dan . 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That's yesterday's Dan . 

Yes - just noticed that, but the 6z today are a lot better anyway.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That's yesterday's Dan . 

I absolutely cannot stand the Wetterzentrale re-design!!!!!!!

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - just noticed that, but the 6z today are a lot better anyway.

Yes a lot better feb . Let's hope they become even better . 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

I absolutely cannot stand the Wetterzentrale re-design!!!!!!!

Yer Dan . No of the sites are that easy to navigate round . Drives you mad . 

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Froze were the Days Accomplished

Froze were the Days

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
Posted (edited)

I've given up following the 6z and 18z GFS it's just too draining and not surprising 6z op run throws a spanner in the works (looking at posts) during the latter part of the run...doesn't the 0z and 12z have better verification rates?

Saying that though the way the weather has been since May it wouldn't at all be surprising to see the 1st half of this month blighted with mild sse/se winds only to move to zonal conditions as we head towards winter proper

Edited by Froze were the Days
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