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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
9 minutes ago, fromey said:

I don’t know what to think or what say,discuss!

DAB5609A-33A7-442E-B239-B5CA68832B2F.jpeg

I read Cohen's blog every week and it's a mix of his theories which may or may not have merit (jury still out on those?) and quite a lot of conclusions drawn from GFS or GEFS charts out at FI, that part not dissimilar to this place, maybe?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

57DC12E0-07E2-46A9-85C3-D85973A8A478.thumb.gif.c4f5e846b89247b96ad6822ba0e500d6.gif

JMA not letting us down

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Extended EPS (the mean) not quite as good as this morning's set.  Scandi heights still shown but less of a retrograde signal.  Clusters will reveal all shortly...

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Just now, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Wow what a cold chart that looks across C&S Europe! Although I feel sorry for the ROI being left out with average temperatures and even slightly above in the far SW 

I am not too worried about the lack extent of this cold spell for the perspective of UK or IE, I am in the believers camp that the longer this scandi high meanders around the better, there is a good correlation between -NAO,-AO in November with the same in December, I do not claim to be teleconnective expert, but some background noise from experienced GSDM gurus links scandi presence to more -NAO further down the line

 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Sinker? 

it doesn't sink, but the strongest signal from around 252hr then wanes a little, the good think is that there persists signal for lower heights around Greece and southern Italy which probably prevents the high from sinking too far south main core of heights are around central NOR and SWE at 360hr, this is EPS ens mean

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That Scandi block is gaining traction now on the latest 8-14 day 500mb anomoly charts from the cpc

and a couple that stood out was Jethro's bling snow plough and GP's jacknife lorry,is that another name for torpedo GP?

We're on the verge of cold...

Don't mention the torpedo! ☠️

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

We're on the verge of cold...

Don't mention the torpedo☠️

LOL!

Maybe we don't need it!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Any news on the ec46? 

Week 2 has the high centred central southern Norway, week 3 has mid Atlantic high. Would like to see a little more of an undercut on on the week 2 but we can’t grumble for the time of year! 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The trends today suggest a robust scandi block. However, there seems to be little appetite for this block to retrogress in the extended. If this trend remains then the only way forward is for the high to eventually sink. I think this is where today's met office extended forecast is coming from. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Any news on the ec46? 

Scandi high week 2 showing signs of retrogression week 3, more into an Atlantic ridge rather than an out and out Greeny block, loses the signal week 4 and reverts to zonal week 5.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Early days on the pub run, here at T156:

image.thumb.jpg.f335ad4f088f0c1306e51fbf3649c6db.jpg

compared to 12z at same time

image.thumb.jpg.86abad29bd35a29f1060159e4fc1c662.jpg

trough into the Atlantic is more pronounced, I think this may prove to be a good run.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Thanks to all for the Ec46 updates. This obviously ties in with the meto extended forecast of today. Let's hope we see more of a trend to retrogress that scandi high up towards our north west as opposed to central Atlantic. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

So in a nutshell,retrogression from Scandi to Atlantic ridge from week two to week three,could be a northerly from there on with poss NE'ly

just to ask,have you's got the link to the ec 46?

TIA

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

So in a nutshell,retrogression from Scandi to Atlantic ridge from week two to week three,could be a northerly from there on with poss NE'ly

just to ask,have you's got the link to the ec 46?

TIA

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/11/08/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom.html

 

But its best to give you this link - else by monday it will be out of date - you have to navigate to it frim here though - select November, select date, select 0z, scroll down and the first selection that has a 2204 or around that time modification is the one you select.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2018/

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks Feb. I know I shouldn't go too far out but I really do like the look of heights rebuilding to our north east again by week 6 - scandi high incoming. I say this because I have noticed since a very young age how weather patterns can often repeat themselves exactly a month later - certainly in winter. What a run up to Christmas that would be

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