Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

If only we could advance a few frames further!

gfs-1-384.png?12

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Just a word of caution though - thats a huge PV formed, it only  needs that to move to Greenland (which happens all the time in winters) and we would be staring down the barrel of weeks of zonality.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look whats lurking on the continent - hello -12c isotherm.

gfsnh-1-348_yhs8.png

aye and this beaut on the GEM (very similar to last night's JMA): 

gemnh-12-240.png?12

Agree though re risks, as ever things need to fall more or less exactly in the right place or it will go south. That said, both GFS and GEM offer indications that retrogression is, from the points outlined above, as likely as a "breakdown". All conjecture though, the signs remain. 

Edited by ITSY
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of caution though - thats a huge PV formed, it only  needs that to move to Greenland (which happens all the time in winters) and we would be staring down the barrel of weeks of zonality.

huh????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

huh????

What i mean is with that much forcing to the North, the cold could go into Central or even southern Europe and we could either be anticyclonic or even worse zonal.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just a word of caution though - thats a huge PV formed, it only  needs that to move to Greenland (which happens all the time in winters) and we would be staring down the barrel of weeks of zonality.

The thing is, we’ve seen how things can develop and occur very quickly! The cold back in February was very sudden and as I’ve said before, it was weirdly still and quite warm a couple of days before the easterly onslaught. 

It’ll probably look different come next run, but that high on the last few frames looked to be a retrogresser, often the case when you get an inverted setup with cold cutting under westwards beneath the high. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My geography might be pants but the PV is over Greenland in FI ?

Not quite - there is a lobe just to the North of Greenland but the largest sector is stretching from the pole to siberia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not quite - there is a lobe just to the North of Greenland but the largest sector is stretching from the pole to siberia.

Im not going to concern myself with the PV when we are looking at a strong anticyclone buliding to our NE ..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
32 minutes ago, ITSY said:

aye and this beaut on the GEM (very similar to last night's JMA

gemnh-12-240.png?12

Agree though re risks, as ever things need to fall more or less exactly in the right place or it will go south. That said, both GFS and GEM offer indications that retrogression is, from the points outlined above, as likely as a "breakdown". All conjecture though, the signs remain. 

Which leads us towards the $64,000 question: will tonight's JMA be anything like last night's JMA?:crazy:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
16 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere. 

Think lorries about to jacknife.

Im sure @bluearmy mentioned similar a few weeks back , big structure build on dodgey foundation 

good to see you back @Glacier Point parallel with the National Hunt season starting  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im not going to concern myself with the PV when we are looking at a strong anticyclone buliding to our NE ..

deepest FI anyway, but wouldn't it lead to a sinker

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
38 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Trust me, that's not a tropospheric vortex that's about to set up shop for the duration. More the exact opposite, particularly when you look at what's going on in the stratosphere. 

Think lorries about to jacknife.

Thanks Stewart, must admit Febs post had me totally confused..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...