Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Met4Cast]

What an upgrade from the 12z EC clusters.

[damianslaw]

Just a few words to remember-

It's only fair for people to back up there thoughts and expectations of eventual evolutions with charts even if they are well beyond the reliable if they feel they support them.

It's also only fair for people to comment for or against such thoughts and expectations preferably with justified reasons.

However, I'm not going to name names, but I've been on the forum quite a long time now, and I do tire of certain posters generally negative tone and inability to come up with reasoned balanced justifications. I know the culprits..

 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

What an upgrade from the 12z EC clusters.

Yes, whilst the orientation of the block at this time of year would probably preclude anything severely wintry, you could easily get surface temps near freezing in the day, if 60 odd percent isnt evidence of some sort of cold developing then i dont know what is.

[markw2680]

16 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Would never wind people up Mark, just saying the reality that the outlook is mild and trending towards very mild again perhaps into next week, the models has been very consistent in this in all fairness so only saying what they are showing. 

Of course we can have a month of 2 halves so a colder 2nd half of the month can't be ruled out but certainly no significant signs of that yet. Would not rule out surface cold appearing in the outlook similar to the GFS18Z run if the Euro block alligns itself which brings more of a continental feed in. 

Fair enough it wasn’t aimed specifically at you though. 

Anyway id say maybe not right now or within the next 2 weeks or so but something is definitely brewing towards the end of the month imo but I’m no expert.

on that note I’ll hand this back over to the experts 

Edited November 7, 2018 by markw2680
Mistake

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS already an improvement at 168 - havent looked at individuals but mean has a better dig of atlantic trough, better alignment and WAA into the pole, feel a good suite with some stonkers coming on.

[feb1991blizzard]

Here is more evidence - end of the runs are getting colder and colder with each run.

 

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS already an improvement at 168 - havent looked at individuals but mean has a better dig of atlantic trough, better alignment and WAA into the pole, feel a good suite with some stonkers coming on.

It will be interesting if we do get some WAA towards the pole if the PV does form quite strongly like its forecast too because we could see some quite potant cold heading towards the mid-latitudes. According to climate reanalyzer than the pole itself is forecast to be slightly below average which believe it or not is a very rare event these days. My only worry would be as the GFS 18Z sort of hints, if that solid PV head towards Canada/Greenland instead of Siberia. 

Anyways I'll leave it there and let the models do the talking in the coming days and see if there is any signs appearing of the outlook might be turning colder. The outlook can easily change from a mild one to a cold one quite quickly, it has happened before.  

[ICE COLD]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS already an improvement at 168 - havent looked at individuals but mean has a better dig of atlantic trough, better alignment and WAA into the pole, feel a good suite with some stonkers coming on.

Yep it's gaining as @tight isobar would say . Where is @Steve Murrand @Frosty. ?? Oh and as you've said @nick sussex . Be good to have there thoughts . 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep it's gaining as @tight isobar would say . Where is @Steve Murrand @Frosty. ?? Oh and as you've said @nick sussex . Be good to have there thoughts . 

Members 4,5 and 6 all build the -8c on the continent and give us an Easterly and threaten us with it.

Edited November 7, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS best suite so far, over 50% Easterlies, some with cold uppers approaching, a few powerhouse Northerlies.

[SMU]

Its pretty much as expected & highlighted in the NH thread -

AER updated flux charts ahows the next attack in the vortex ~ 17th Nov onwards- peaking around 22nd-

This is as a result of another scandi Block which could well be more productive this time.

In terms of the stratosphere days 20-40 may well be the tone setter for the winter with the all the references to a SSW alligning in the round to ~ mid December...

If were lucky the fact that most of the wave activity has been Scandi Based then the lead blocking pattern may also eminate there as well meaning that whilst the zonal wind is set to drop through early December, the prelude to that may already be working in our favour.....

PTB 2 please

Edited November 8, 2018 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

384 GEFS mean.

[ITSY]

Trends trends trends. Details irrelevant at this range. Important thing is to keep this Blocking theme in place for a few days, even at end of low res, before firming up placement in days and weeks to come...patience. 

[ITSY]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

384 GEFS mean.

Quite remarkable for cold prospects, that. An empty N Atlantic. Heights in Iceland and Greenland. Rare to see such a prognosis as a mean so far into low res. Certainly suggests something is brewing. We’ve been here before though so let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Still, the signs are very positive tonight 

edit: see mean for NE England. Spiral. 

Edited November 7, 2018 by ITSY

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Quite remarkable for cold prospects, that. An empty N Atlantic. Heights in Iceland and Greenland. Rare to see such a prognosis as a mean so far into low res. Certainly suggests something is brewing. We’ve been here before though so let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Still, the signs are very positive tonight 

Yes, and certainly at this time of year.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 05/11/2018 at 14:18, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

I think the ups and downs will continue in the models this week with some runs going more unsettled and some keeping the high to the east stronger with more of a blocked pattern.

 

as I said on Monday the potential for more blocked patterns to be shown within the models this week.

GEFS

control run  

P2  

P4  

P5  

P6 

P8 

P9 

P13  

P15 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at how things stand today...seatbelts on and prepare for a bumpy ride!

Early season cold potential is the best IMO

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looking at how things stand today...seatbelts on and prepare for a bumpy ride!

Early season cold potential is the best IMO

BTW when i was looking at the WQBO phase not being favourable for SSW's during solar min, i didnt take into account changeover phases being favourable, i thought that would be too  early for an SSW anyway but the post by sebastian (i think) in the strat thread means we do have a window of opportunity for an SSW and if we can get one, it might put the vortex out of action for the whole winter as by the time the upper strat vortex re-forms, it is susceptible to further attacks, so looking pretty good (for now) IMO.

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW when i was looking at the WQBO phase not being favourable for SSW's during solar min, i didnt take into account changeover phases being favourable, i thought that would be too  early for an SSW anyway but the post by sebastian (i think) in the strat thread means we do have a window of opportunity for an SSW and if we can get one, it might put the vortex out of action for the whole winter as by the time the upper strat vortex re-forms, it is susceptible to further attacks, so looking pretty good (for now) IMO.

Yeah

I've been saying an early season SSW would be the grail for us this year- still the case as far as I'm concerned.

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looking at how things stand today...seatbelts on and prepare for a bumpy ride!

Early season cold potential is the best IMO

I love cold weather when the days are shorter myself- between late Nov and late Jan is my optimum timeframe cold and snow wise- in another 3 weeks it will be going dark at around 4.15pm, if we do get under a cold airmass the nights are very long for frost to set in, in the run up to christmas thats perfect , in my world..

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BTW when i was looking at the WQBO phase not being favourable for SSW's during solar min, i didnt take into account changeover phases being favourable, i thought that would be too  early for an SSW anyway but the post by sebastian (i think) in the strat thread means we do have a window of opportunity for an SSW and if we can get one, it might put the vortex out of action for the whole winter as by the time the upper strat vortex re-forms, it is susceptible to further attacks, so looking pretty good (for now) IMO.

I'm actually quite excited about the prospect of a cold last third of November , short days, festive season incoming and a foggy/cold continental flow off the a cooling Europe would be amazing. 

All the christmas decorations going up , maybe its just me but its takes away some of the feelgood feeling when its wind and rain as we approach December, fingers crossed this year will be different..

GFS certainly being consistent now, temps plots show temps dropping away nicely later in the month as the flow comes from the mainland.

[bluearmy]

Bearing in mind we are looking at output for middle part November, very interesting from a coldie perspective where we seem to be headed ....... however, we have been here before so a little bit of handbrake application now and again might help for when the sypntotic swingometer heads in the wrong direction,!!

Edited November 8, 2018 by bluearmy

[Les Penniston]

19 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And here, so as to better relate with PerfectStorm's post, is the actual chart for November 15 1978: quite an evolution?

 

If i remember correctly the end of November we had a northerly and snow on the ground for a few days which was early for us.

[northwestsnow]

EC looks a bit tasty this morning!! High drifting north/north east ,energy going south in the Atlantic, cold/foggy/frosty weather incoming for mainland Europe and the UK...

GFS is a bit meh though as the high never really gets far enough north ..

 

[shaky]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks a bit tasty this morning!! High drifting north/north east ,energy going south in the Atlantic, cold/foggy/frosty weather incoming for mainland Europe and the UK...

GFS is a bit meh though as the high never really gets far enough north ..

 

Trust the gfs to do that as soon as the ecm finally comes up with some tasty charts after days of showing rubbish lol!!