Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Mr Brown]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So we now watch, sit and wait. I posted many times and days ago that last 3rd and late month will see a cold pattern take hold and to look fo E/NE feed. I was pulled up for not producing charts to support, well they weren’t reaching that far and of course I don’t use them to forecast.  But maybe when I can I’ll post some.  But I remain in same call. The switch likely to be swift, ushering in an early cold start to winter during December.  Deep FI on GFS on more than one run now sniffing at this....so we watch sit and wait.  Let the ‘real’ Hunt commence!

 

BFTP

Is the cold going to be anything that is noteworthy?

[Methuselah]

I guess we all have our own reasons for spending umpteen years indulging in a ritual hunt for snow...Well, my own was caused by waking-up on this particular morning:

Edited November 7, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Mike Poole]

36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i believe it was recently verifying top for T192. anecdotally, it seems to be doing better than the gfs op and it didn't go for the mid November undercut like other models did recently 

Yes, FV3 was top at T192, for the NH - it still is currently at T240:

Perhaps the more interesting fact for our purposes on this thread given how far we look ahead sometimes, is that unlike the current GFS, the resolution doesn't drop after day 10, it remains high resolution (~13km) right out to day 16.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

Interesting the GFS and ECM day 10 charts are very similar . 

Cant get much closer than that at day 10 . 

Edited November 7, 2018 by ICE COLD

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Interesting the GFS and ECM day 10 charts are very similar . 

Yes, its no good people saying 'ECM does not show cold' because it does not go far enough, not thinking of anyone in particular of course!

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Interesting the GFS and ECM day 10 charts are very similar . 

Cant get much closer than that at day 10 . 

Which demonstrates the trend that after a weekend where it should be fresher(although still average to slightly above), next week could be back to where we are now with very mild Southerlies via the Euro high. 

One difference there is between the 2 runs is the Alaskan ridge where the ECM is more pronounced whereas the GFS is less pronounced which means the PV over the North Pole is not sitting as comfortably as a result so the ECM is slightly more encouraging for cold lovers despite it being a dreadful run on the face of it to be quite frank. 

All that said, despite the charts being similar, the details will change between now and then.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Which demonstrates the trend that after a weekend where it should be fresher(although still average to slightly above), next week could be back to where we are now with very mild Southerlies via the Euro high. 

One difference there is between the 2 runs is the Alaskan ridge where the ECM is more pronounced whereas the GFS is less pronounced which means the PV over the North Pole is not sitting as comfortably as a result so the ECM is slightly more encouraging for cold lovers despite it being a dreadful run on the face of it to be quite frank. 

All that said, despite the charts being similar, the details will change between now and then.

And details will likely MASSIVELY change too....

That given any1's particular-model decipher/perveivement.

And taking computer generated analysis...at present...as a whole!

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, tight isobar said:

And details will likely MASSIVELY change too....

That given any1's particular-model decipher/perveivement.

And taking computer generated analysis...at present...as a whole!

Exactly, I always emphasize whatever set up we see details will change, as Nick Sussex says, if a model is incorrect in the first part of the run then the rest of the run is incorrect and that applies to any set up. 

[matty40s]

46 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

Is the cold going to be anything that is noteworthy?

Look back to what happened from Nov 26th 2010......

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, its no good people saying 'ECM does not show cold' because it does not go far enough, not thinking of anyone in particular of course!

Fair point, feb...But, were the ECM to go out too far, it'd be in direct competition with the always-correct CFS. So, I guess it'd always show cold?

[northwestsnow]

So EC/GFS now pretty much on the same page by day 10-

Atlantic to run out of steam 2nd half of November?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Fair point, feb...But, were the ECM to go out too far, it'd be in direct competition with the always-correct CFS. So, I guess it'd always show cold?

Not sure what the CFS has to do with it, the comparison would be with the GFS, you cant say what the accuracy with the ECM would be like because you dont know what spec 240-384 would run at, the point im making is the fact that with long fetch WAA going into the pole, how on earth can you say that there is not ANY SIGN of cold at all.

[Rayth]

15 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Look back to what happened from Nov 26th 2010......

Is there an archived thread with the lead up to December 2010? , would be good for an educational purpose and to pretend I was here at the time  

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Raythan said:

Is there an archived thread with the lead up to December 2010? , would be good for an educational purpose and to pretend I was here at the time  

There will be somewhere but it is so hard to navigate, i have links to threads as far back as feb 2009 but they were regional discussions - cant seem to even find those for the late 2010 cold spell

.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure what the CFS has to do with it, the comparison would be with the GFS, you cant say what the accuracy with the ECM would be like because you dont know what spec 240-384 would run at, the point im making is the fact that with long fetch WAA going into the pole, how on earth can you say that there is not ANY SIGN of cold at all.

You're right, cold at some point (perhaps past the end of model-reliability IMO) is always going to be somewhere or other - it's winter. Nearly!

My allusion to the CFS was not intended to highlight any one model in particular, but to how accurate models (any models) might be, should they go out to much farther than about one month ahead. Given that the CFS is the only really long-range model I can view (and is, IMO, about as much use as a chocolate fireguard) I used it as a reference point.

[Allseasons-Si]

I thought this was the moans thread for a minute,oh wait a minute, there is one

i cannot see what the problem is with posting charts that the models are showing whether it be 0-384 hrs or even 1074 what the cfs churts out,it's all fun in trying to decipher what will happen down to 0hrs,yes it looks to become milder but we are trying to find out what will happen afterwoods,and looking at the ens graph below shows just this

looking at the gefs ens panel below(384 hrs) you can see there are plenty of blocking scenario's close to or over the uk and that signal is getting stronger

the gefs ens mean animated chart below shows a retrogression of the block migrating from Europe towards the Atlantic

and the latest jma shows more of an amplified pattern at 192 compared to yesterday evenings 204

right,i am logging off for now to watch man utd v juventus,be back later guys and keep it friendly

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You're right, cold at some point (perhaps past the end of model-reliability IMO) is always going to be somewhere or other - it's winter. Nearly!

My allusion to the CFS was not intended to highlight any one model in particular, but to how accurate models (any models) might be, should they go out to much farther than about one month ahead. Given that the CFS is the only really long-range model I can view (and is, IMO, about as much use as a chocolate fireguard) I used it as a reference point.

Not always, if you look at some of the charts of yesteryear in Mid Jan with a coupled vortex thats huge and stretches from the pole to 60N all the way around the globe and has huge areas of sub 500 heights, and there have been no recent significant bouts of WAA / polar ridges then you can write off more than a month, this isnt one of those occasions.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Mr Brown said:

Is the cold going to be anything that is noteworthy?

I certainly am not seeing a 2010 scenario end of Nov into Dec ( not that extreme) ,  but certainly noteworthy enough that temps for periods will be decently below average enough for snow to low levels even down south if the precip set up is there at the time

BFTP 

Edited November 7, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not always, if you look at some of the charts of yesteryear in Mid Jan with a coupled vortex thats huge and stretches from the pole to 60N all the way around the globe and has huge areas of sub 500 heights, and there have been no recent significant bouts of WAA / polar ridges then you can write off more than a month, this isnt one of those occasions.

No. It's not.

[Spah1]

44 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Is there an archived thread with the lead up to December 2010? , would be good for an educational purpose and to pretend I was here at the time  

I’ve asked before and would like to read it but can’t find it. 

[Dancerwithwings]

47 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Is there an archived thread with the lead up to December 2010? , would be good for an educational purpose and to pretend I was here at the time  

Go to top right  ‘search box’ type in (2010) then click contents titles only.

you'll find loads of pages/content relating to 2010....some great pics

[feb1991blizzard]

27 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Go to top right  ‘search box’ type in (2010) then click contents titles only.

you'll find loads of pages/content relating to 2010....some great pics

Thats the problem though - everythings all over the place - you cant find the model threads.

[damianslaw]

Significant warm air advection is showing up for later next week on both GFS and ECM, and this does indeed bode well for height rises to set up shop over the pole and to our NE.. it will inflate the ridge and combined with a sluggish jet, an undercut could be the end result.. always a believer significant mild can often be quickly followed by notable cold and vice versa.. usually happens more so in Spring with the classic northerly switch to southerly and back.. but its very notable at a time when the atlantic should be going into turbo charge it appears to want to run out of steam having never really switched into mid gear it seems..

[Ice Day]

Running the risk of being termed a 'straw clutcher', the late stages of the GFS really do show some mouth-watering synoptics.  Of course the outcome won't be an exact match but there's a consistency with its FI output that gives some cause for optimism.  Allied to that, the similarities between the ECM and GFS 240 charts are notable, we could just be heading for a cracking start to winter 2018/19.

It's been posted several times already, but it's worth showing again.  Superb chart!

Could it be possible that the massive strat warming last Feb is still having some ramifications?

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

25 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Running the risk of being termed a 'straw clutcher', the late stages of the GFS really do show some mouth-watering synoptics.  Of course the outcome won't be an exact match but there's a consistency with its FI output that gives some cause for optimism.  Allied to that, the similarities between the ECM and GFS 240 charts are notable, we could just be heading for a cracking start to winter 2018/19.

It's been posted several times already, but it's worth showing again.  Superb chart!

Could it be possible that the massive strat warming last Feb is still having some ramifications?

Given how crazy 2018 has been since the SSW, it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s still having some sort of effect but not a direct one of course. 

Good signs in FL, as long as the models hold onto the blocking signal nearer the time then there’s lots to be positive about.