Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

seemingly not ……..

Why you say that Blue?

[weirpig]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Why you say that Blue?

I would have thought because that run had a big Greeny high with winds from a Northerly quarter  now its more high pressure dominated.  ie  already  lost the signal 

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

I would have thought because that run had a big Greeny high with winds from a Northerly quarter  now its more high pressure dominated.  ie  already  lost the signal 

This signal/signals ARE FIRMLY THERE!..

And it will be worth noting/viewing even the 10hpa strat- raw data in the nxt 48 hrs...

Mjo-phasing and displacement, options..leave the door firmly open...for uk/nw-euro cold....going forwards...late nov/-early dec....

Watch evolvement!

Edited November 7, 2018 by tight isobar

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

This signal/signals ARE FIRMLY THERE!..

And it will be worth noting/viewing even the 10hpa strat- raw data in the nxt 48 hrs...

Mjo-phasing and displacement, options..leave the door firmly open...for uk/nw-euro cold....going forwards...late nov/-early dec....

Watch evolvement!

Lets see on the 12zs then mate!!!hopefully we can get even colder output this evening!!

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly no cold in the outputs at the moment and that is a fact really, does look like the hints of the weather turning significantly milder again into next week is gaining some strength via a Euro high and a low pressure system to the West but far too early to put any detail on it as of yet. 

At least the weather is still looking mostly sunny and for some western parts, perhaps convective for some parts so quite pleasent Autumn weather. Only uncertainty is the waving weather front and how quickly that clears on Sunday so whilst the main trend does seem to be a reasonable weekend, Sunday could prove to be cloudier and wetter so one to watch. 

On a northern hemisphere point of view, the forecasts of the PV gaining strength over the poles is still there but perhaps not as strong as the GFS indicates. 

[booferking]

Yep signal still there as was with 06z doesn't have to narnia every run but as long as signal is there.

Edited November 7, 2018 by booferking

[Mucka]

The last frame of GFS 12z has a stonking cold pattern setting up with regression written all over it.

I'm afraid as always it is a game of patience but we should be encouraged at deep FI throwing up such possibilites as we already know any cold potential won't be realised until end of November, early December if all goes well.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Mucka

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh yes sir! - as good a positioned and strength 2 wave attack on the vortex as you can get, and the icing on the case is a surface cold E'ly to enjoy while you then wait for that aforementioned pattern to really reap the rewards in a few weeks time.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep signal still there as was with 06z doesn't have to narnia every run but as long as signal is there.

If only that wasn’t in FI, great chart with potentially some significant early “big freeze” . Alaskan WAA heading our way too.

[tight isobar]

The 'boat floting' continues... and as longer range signals....raw data getting the hint...remember...late nov-early dec..are paramount flagging for a drop into winter territory...so if these outs dont wet your whistle...all given...

Then not much will...

Imo we-are in a superior exactions....

Cross scale !!!

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If only that wasn’t in FI, great chart with potentially some significant early “big freeze” . Alaskan WAA heading our way too.

Grand solar minimum charts like these are very plausible this year but time will tell.

 

Spotless days current stretch 20 days

Year to date spotless days 186 days

[carinthian]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Ok, the view from over here regarding the hunt for cold in the UK suggests a peak in the mild temps around bout 17th. This sort of indicated by London 850mb temp Ensembles ( below ) and then a colder spell to follow for the last 3rd of the month.  Its not unusual to see a cold spell follow quite dramatically after a peak in upper temps. Their own model charts still show a build of pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles with lowering of temps from 20th November with its % prediction showing a rise past 30% ( which I am told shows an increase in predictive confidence ) Later charts post (23rd ) also still show some kind of retrogressive of the block with first hint of some snow spikes for the UK.

 C

This is a chart we need to allude to in the hunt for a prolonged colder spell to set in . All a bit of a slow burner regarding the synoptic developments, but in many ways this is usually the best route. Split jet with warm advection towards Greenland which will also aid increasingly cold advection down the Eastern side of the Block. The cut off low in the Atlantic to under cut ever more slowly as this should help to hold the Atlantic Ridge longer . Looks promising to me. All far out in predictive terms but the building blocks are starting to show in the last few runs.

C

Edited November 7, 2018 by carinthian

[Geordiesnow]

Four different posts from 4 different members posting a 384 hour low resolution GFS chart to illustrate about this so called cold potential, I think that is straw clutching in the extreme. I don't know if its still the case now as it used to be but the GFS goes into a lower resolution(so prone to be less accurate) after 240 hours so for any new members out there, those charts you just seen posted are completely irrelevant and meaningless.

Instead of cold, we could be looking at November 2018 potentially being one of the warmest on record giving the current outputs and the potential for a very warm(for the time of year) southerly which the models are keep on hinting at in the medium term. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes sir! - as good a positioned and strength 2 wave attack on the vortex as you can get, and the icing on the case is a surface cold E'ly to enjoy while you then wait for that aforementioned pattern to really reap the rewards in a few weeks time.

Pretty sure Dec 1962 started off with a cold surface easterly before retrogression to the main event! 

Promising signs. 

Edited November 7, 2018 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Methuselah]

Could have been the cause of the dense freezing fog I think I can remember?

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Four different posts from 4 different members posting a 384 hour low resolution GFS chart to illustrate about this so called cold potential, I think that is straw clutching in the extreme. I don't know if its still the case now as it used to be but the GFS goes into a lower resolution(so prone to be less accurate) after 240 hours so for any new members out there, those charts you just seen posted are completely irrelevant and meaningless.

Instead of cold, we could be looking at November 2018 potentially being one of the warmest on record giving the current outputs and the potential for a very warm(for the time of year) southerly which the models are keep on hinting at in the medium term. 

If you 'cared' to view...or look @ other formats posted...ie mjo phasing strat develops...

Then quoting latter frames of a raw..operational carry weight...and balance.

Its not a 1 hit wonder of a possible/probabile evolution.

It mass trending....even expectation of eventual exactions!

Edit:..

And this is indeed the hunt 4 cold thread.

So id like your exactions for balance of late nov/dec likelyhood...as what been elaborated is far from meteorlogical fiction!???...

Edited November 7, 2018 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Could have been the cause of the dense freezing fog I think I can remember?

[Eskimo]

9 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Four different posts from 4 different members posting a 384 hour low resolution GFS chart to illustrate about this so called cold potential, I think that is straw clutching in the extreme. I don't know if its still the case now as it used to be but the GFS goes into a lower resolution(so prone to be less accurate) after 240 hours so for any new members out there, those charts you just seen posted are completely irrelevant and meaningless.

Instead of cold, we could be looking at November 2018 potentially being one of the warmest on record giving the current outputs and the potential for a very warm(for the time of year) southerly which the models are keep on hinting at in the medium term. 

That's completely untrue. Of course the majority of the time anything modelled beyond 10 days is unlikely to happen statistically, however I have seen on numerous occasions evolutions at t+384h pan out. 

[northwestsnow]

I ithink the trend is the key here, the evolution was picked up by EC yesterday for the block to have more influence and the GFS and its ens have now picked up the baton.

Of course we are talking 7 days away for the Atlantic to become blocked off so it could yet change , but foe now the trend is for the block to have more say.

[Ali1977]

TheENS even by day 10 look very interesting - I imagine a better set coming than earlier. Chilly and dry by mid month looks a good shout, then we need the high pressure to play ball and retrogression to happen 

[Dancerwithwings]

Best 384h anomalie chart I’ve seen so far this season.

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Four different posts from 4 different members posting a 384 hour low resolution GFS chart to illustrate about this so called cold potential, I think that is straw clutching in the extreme. I don't know if its still the case now as it used to be but the GFS goes into a lower resolution(so prone to be less accurate) after 240 hours so for any new members out there, those charts you just seen posted are completely irrelevant and meaningless.

Instead of cold, we could be looking at November 2018 potentially being one of the warmest on record giving the current outputs and the potential for a very warm(for the time of year) southerly which the models are keep on hinting at in the medium term. 

Just for the record, im not expecting November to come out as anything other than mild (ignore my CET forecast for the purposes of this discussion - ,my view has changed since then), however there are many GEFS ensembles showing exceptional WAA through the pole and i would guess the eps are trending that way given the cooling on the ECM graph, also the met office even predicting colder and drier end Nov into December so we are talking about at the very least a month to a month and a half before any severe cold possible but if some of the advertised NH patterns materialise, i will give a cast iron guarantee that at some point during the first half of winter, the UK will be looking at a cold spell.

[Frosty_wsm]

12 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Four different posts from 4 different members posting a 384 hour low resolution GFS chart to illustrate about this so called cold potential, I think that is straw clutching in the extreme.

Well this is the hunt for cold model  thread isn't it so I don't see any problem with that in the slightest & I have no idea why you you feel the need to moan about posters who are using this thread correctly!?? 

Seriously, did you confuse this model thread with the main one or what? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

36 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes sir! - as good a positioned and strength 2 wave attack on the vortex as you can get, and the icing on the case is a surface cold E'ly to enjoy while you then wait for that aforementioned pattern to really reap the rewards in a few weeks time.

384 hours out or not, what a stonker of a chart hemispherically.

[Tim Bland]

I will also give a guarantee that there will be a cold spell this winter ...might only be a toppler ...but there will definitely be a ‘cold’ spell