Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, big improvement on the GEFS today, late in FI yes, but a good number either show Northern blocking or something which would lead to Northern blocking.

And judging by this, an increasing number of eps do so as well.

Some cold members starting to crop up there!!

[northwestsnow]

A cooling/drying trend now becoming visible on GEFS 18Z..

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some cold members starting to crop up there!!

ANd on here as well, nothing to write home about yet but to me there will be a Northerly lat Nov / early Dec.

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Huh.. the models are showing the block being stronger than originally suggested.. huh, the models are back to showing a route to potential cold for the end of the month!

A rocky few days with some zonal patterns but good signs from the models today, lets hope it’s picked up the signal for heights to our North last 3rd of the month. 

Re: Strat jet strenghtening, yeah usually that’d be a worry but with the disconnect still going strong it shouldn’t matter too much, I suspect the blocks shown on the models should they develop, will serve to weaken the Strat vortex anyway. 

I must be looking at different charts then because all the models showing the current block to our East will eventually head further Eastwards into Russia and flattening in the process, its the slight Amplification in the Atlantic that is predicted that could lead a route that could bring cold weather eventually although the GFS and ECM are actually forecasting very mild southerlies instead so all is not cut and dry that is for sure. 

In general a mild outlook but not one without interest on a weather POV with the deep low for Friday still there and the weekend bringing potentially some convective showers for some but it should be alot sunnier also than it is at the moment. 

GFS is still showing the PV strengthning over the poles whereas the ECM shows similar but with hints it could be disrupted by WAA on the Pacific side of the Arctic.I still don't think strengtning of the PV is a bad thing because if Meteology allows it, then if it does get disrupted on the Atlantic side of the Arctic then any bottled cold could be more potant. 

Anyways in simple terms, no signs of any cold weather just yet but temperatures should drop off slightly over the weekend and it should be sunnier also at times.

[Ali1977]

Yes it’s FI but it’s been a while since the Op showed some nice Greeny blocking. More importantly FI now is into late Nov where we have a far better chance of some decent cold. Let’s see if we get a continued better set of ENS, with some following suite. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

This is more like it and ties in with a few sources predictions for end of November

[booferking]

Could this be the start of something special like another 2010 once gfs received the signal it never dropped it big swing started last night.

Edited November 7, 2018 by booferking

[I remember Atlantic 252]

384 bugger! snow possible too on 23rd, hope good charts don't stay post 300

[daz_4]

Definitely better set of ensembles for Central Europe this morning.

Yesterday 6z

Now 

Hopefully we will get something at least seasonal next week.

[carinthian]

22 hours ago, carinthian said:

The North Atlantic jet shown from (gfs) below continues to buckle against the strong European Block.  The latest ECM models shows a strengthening of the ridge by Mid Month. So robust it is , that the buckle in the jet sends it into almost towards Sub Tropic jet location. Its not really unusual to see this block at this time of year, however, the failure of the Polar Jet to push into Europe in its normal path is a notable feature , it should normally be powerful enough as we enter the seasonal change in increasingly upper air temp differentials to make an impact into the large block. (whether the weakening of the jet is due to GW is another subject ) but is being touted by some experts as a cause.  Anyway, back to our longer range thoughts, still basically the same and a front loaded winter not being dismissed, even with this very warm Autumnal spell lasting till mid -month. Ridging of high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles still being featured with colder weather for the last 10 days of the month.

Morning all, these two mid month charts from ECM interests me most in the hunt for cold. Note the cold pool over the Balkans, should this pan out, will be a bit of shock to our neighbours to the Southeast. The month started with a 32c temp recorded in this region and projected temp by 17th of 0c in some parts. That's some change ! However, the second chart shows an monster Euro/ Asian block, almost from Biscay to the Pacific.  So based on these charts a fall in temps seem likely as we enter the last 3rd of the month after such a warm spell for many in Euroland. Should get an update from our forecast providers later this morning for our resort planning and hopefully a wider view ( UK).

C

[Coopsy]

If any mods are reading this - the link at the top of the page doesn't work....

'If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Message added by Paul'

[tight isobar]

Gets the feeling of an impressive run coming up here 6z gfs...

And more importantly..'perhaps' the begining-of the start.....to unraveling block formats/vortex disrupt on a notable scale!!..

Its been begging....so to be expected.

 

The euro/iberian high is aligning more and more favourably...as we gain!

Edited November 7, 2018 by tight isobar

[Eskimo]

Surely that area of low pressure in the Atlantic is only going one way...underneath?

[Methuselah]

34 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Surely that area of low pressure in the Atlantic is only going one way...underneath?

And here, for comparison, is the chart for November 7 1978, when I doubt many folks knew what was coming?

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, these two mid month charts from ECM interests me most in the hunt for cold. Note the cold pool over the Balkans, should this pan out, will be a bit of shock to our neighbours to the Southeast. The month started with a 32c temp recorded in this region and projected temp by 17th of 0c in some parts. That's some change ! However, the second chart shows an monster Euro/ Asian block, almost from Biscay to the Pacific.  So based on these charts a fall in temps seem likely as we enter the last 3rd of the month after such a warm spell for many in Euroland. Should get an update from our forecast providers later this morning for our resort planning and hopefully a wider view ( UK).

C

Ok, the view from over here regarding the hunt for cold in the UK suggests a peak in the mild temps around bout 17th. This sort of indicated by London 850mb temp Ensembles ( below ) and then a colder spell to follow for the last 3rd of the month.  Its not unusual to see a cold spell follow quite dramatically after a peak in upper temps. Their own model charts still show a build of pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles with lowering of temps from 20th November with its % prediction showing a rise past 30% ( which I am told shows an increase in predictive confidence ) Later charts post (23rd ) also still show some kind of retrogressive of the block with first hint of some snow spikes for the UK.

 C

[Met4Cast]

Not such a good run for UK pleasing synoptics but look at that monster Russian high!

This is NOT a normal pressure pattern for this time of year.

[weirpig]

Ensembles for Middle England.  Most are under High pressure influence under one guise or another.  depending on the orientation of the high will obviously dictate the surface temperatures.   Most go for Europe (eastern/central) cooling rapidly down  and some place the high in such a way as low uppers migrate over the Uk.  all in all better than has been showing for the past few days.  some are even close to the magical -10.  winter maybe on its way

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ensembles for Middle England.  Most are under High pressure influence under one guise or another.  depending on the orientation of the high will obviously dictate the surface temperatures.   Most go for Europe (eastern/central) cooling rapidly down  and some place the high in such a way as low uppers migrate over the Uk.  all in all better than has been showing for the past few days.  some are even close to the magical -10.  winter maybe on its way

The mean alone telling a story!!..

Seem to be at the point bases-where some of us assumed going deeper into november.....big stepping stone forwards today.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The mean alone telling a story!!..

Seem to be at the point bases-where some of us assumed going deeper into november.....big stepping stone forwards today.

Yes here comes the clifffalloffer (ECMWF version) to supplement it.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And here, for comparison, is the chart for November 7 1978, when I doubt many folks knew what was coming?

And here, so as to better relate with PerfectStorm's post, is the actual chart for November 15 1978: quite an evolution?

 

[northwestsnow]

Late to post this morning but i'm liking the look of those EC ensembles , signal seems to be euro high drifting north into southern scandy to promote a continental feed..

Obviously still too far off to have much confidence but steady as she goes..

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

And here, for comparison, is the chart for November 7 1978, when I doubt many folks knew what was coming?

In 1978 the furthest we could forecast was 3 days ahead. The T+96 surface prog along with some thickness lines was being trialled but I think it was about 1980 when that became an operational tool and the T+120 soon after.

This is IF my memory serves me correctly-a big ask these days!

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

In 1978 the furthest we could forecast was 3 days ahead. The T+96 surface prog along with some thickness lines was being trialled but I think it was about 1980 when that became an operational tool and the T+120 soon after.

This is IF my memory serves me correctly-a big ask these days!

Your right enough, John, we sometimes (given our easy access to modern-day modelling) forget how frustrating it was, back then...

I can still remember coming out in goose-pimples as the legendary Jack Scott gave a monthly forecast of 'very cold weather with showers or longer periods of snow' only for mild SW winds to take over, a mere three days later. I was gutted!

[BlueHedgehog074]

4 hours ago, c00ps said:

If any mods are reading this - the link at the top of the page doesn't work....

'If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

Message added by Paul'

We have come to the rescue and fixed the link! 

[bluearmy]

6 hours ago, booferking said:

Could this be the start of something special like another 2010 once gfs received the signal it never dropped it big swing started last night.

 

seemingly not ……..