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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

yes Mate no good especially for low resorts...

Anyway the PM runs are mixed in this high entropy phase -

GEM getting a wedge of undercutting ( including the ICON ) - UKMO not so keen-

FWIW the GFS have edges towards the undercut at 132 V 138 although its still 50/50

12z V 06z further SE with the low

5EF2C533-635A-46C8-B68F-77FEF1DC0388.thumb.png.8d9a95ad05e387d78cad6116a295b6dc.png56C5A6DB-4EFD-4D59-9D7E-9FF91A458120.thumb.png.57aa2ca9376ae6ed320a134aed60e12a.png

Theres also better heights to the north on the 12z ^^

S

Ay @Steve Murr, both GEM and GFS have the polar front well into Euroland by day 10. Lets see if ECM shows the same and hopefully some height rises to the north of the British Isles showing at the end of the run. Maybe we are now starting to see the first phases in the models of the well documented colder period to develop during the second half of the month.

C

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

won't get it from that member, a few likes I see, if I had posted mild with no evidence/charts, would be no 'likes' and a slagging off

I recalled Blast made a similar prediction around this time last year also and it turned out to be quite spectaculy incorrect so I always would urge any caution of predictions without too much foundation. I for one have no idea what the weather will be like at the end of the month as there is not one indication either way and the weather can flip quickly hence we hear on here that the first part of the month started warm, the 2nd half much colder and vice versa. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
20 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The point is that it's long range. It may or may not happen. I'm not saying it won't, I'm just suggesting the models don't show any signs of that at the moment. Therefore, it is very hard to predict. When people post a chart of one the GEFS members which show an easterly, they go into snow Armageddon mode. I'm just saying expectations need to be kept in check. This is a hunt for cold thread, not plucking cold out of thin air thread. Anyway end of topic.

That's why I posted a chart from November 4 1978, that looked a lot like some of today's: the fact that two charts (from different years) happen to appear very similar, doesn't in any way indicate a similar evolution..?

I guess it's a kind of entropy: for each evolution we'd like to see happen, there is an infinite number of wronguns...if you wait for the wind to blow you up a quick sandcastle, you'll be in for a very long wait indeed!

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Posted
  • Location: Central Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Polar lows are the dream
  • Location: Central Scotland

How unusual is it to see the polar vortex this disrupted / amassing over the Russian Arctic at this time of year?

Normally its setting up somewhere near Greenland and Baffin Island...

Does this link to @Steve Murr's insights about the increasing lack of ice in the Barents/Kara seas?? 

Be interesting to see if it has any ramifications for the U.K. in terms of northern blocking etc. as we head into winter.

998940873_PolarVortex.thumb.png.0ef59fefac7d8861a973aae343ba9b63.png

Edited by North of North Yorkshire
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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

For me The idea of the cold pattern trying to take hold as per the model variation is good....it won’t imo be as quick as GEM unless that passes through as an attempt....but its looking good.  Late Nov real cold digging in (E/NE feed) and snow for low level south Uk by months’ end....the switch will be pretty quick when it steps in.

 

BFTP

Lowland south, including London? Interesting. I personally don’t see it being substantial especially when you take into account residual warmth. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Possible height rises towards Greenland on the ecm  but quite frankly everything on the table at this point with no clear signal  across the pond How ever  winter taking hold in large parts of Canada and the USA 

ECH1-216.gif

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Do you have any charts to back this up? Or, is it just saying things people want to hear? It's familiar story at the moment, so a few charts and some explanations would be helpful to the majority of viewers on here.

No charts, I anticipate they’ll show it.  I don’t rely on models longer term. Also I said current charts shown hint at the idea ad I can’t post them.  My lrf is out there...look at current charts posted or look at by some or look at curent runs they refer to what I’m explaining.

BFTP

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Ay @Steve Murr, both GEM and GFS have the polar front well into Euroland by day 10. Lets see if ECM shows the same and hopefully some height rises to the north of the British Isles showing at the end of the run. Maybe we are now starting to see the first phases in the models of the well documented colder period to develop during the second half of the month.

C

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Not the chart for a colder outlook from ECM. Still has the status quo with trough anchored out to the west of the British Isles and any frontal activity stalling against the block with much of Europe in the mild flow. Difference emerging on latest runs , with GFS/GEM showing a more progressive change than ECM by 240t.

C

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Sure ECM T240 is a bit depressing,but 

a) it won't happen, and 

b) it is still showing a very amplified NH pattern,  only take a few tweaks and there is our start of decent winter charts. Here's the chart

image.thumb.jpg.cdde797e54c5bdfec5aba4b4e78cd74f.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Catacol said:

 

And December? The biggest player for me longer term will be the stratospheric vortex and its ability, or not, to descend and tie the troposphere to it. GFS forecasts for substantial invigoration towards month's end are in place - but frankly the sudden transformation of stratospheric forecasts last winter leaves me very suspicious of any attempt to predict vortex impact at a month's range. Personally the longer the Euro high that many on here are irritated at hangs around the better for me, because it increases the chances of distressing the vortex in the longer term via warm air advection into the pole and vertically into the stratosphere. By the start of December we are sure to be seeing the impact of the next drop in GLAAM tendency (back to the pacific cycle again....) but in a Nino year if the vortex remains decoupled and we don't get another Oscar thrown into the mix then there is every chance of the block holding on. Can it remain high enough in latitude to bring sufficient cold for lowland snow? My gut feeling is that we will need to see one more rinse and repeat pacific cycle before this happens....so I'd guess at a return of some atlantic influence into the start of December but in a context that is still rather blocked. So temperatures moderating but not raging zonality. Having said that, atlantic energy in December with blocking around can lead to stalling systems.....and rainfall totals in this scenario can be high as we have seen already this autumn in mid/south Wales.

Lots of interest in snow cover, QBO influence, ENSO profile, upper/lower vortex development, MJO strength and phase still to come as we approach winter proper. For sure, however, there is enough potential in the background signals at the moment for all hunting for cold to be optimistic. Great to be entering 3-4 months of core winter wonderland hunting once again.

100% agree with this, its far better to at least maintain a buckled Jet and a higher number wave pattern as possible, to the average bloke in the street it makes no difference as the weather can be exactly the same and perhaps even wetter than with rampant zonailty but further down the line the differences can be stark.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
57 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

100% agree with this, its far better to at least maintain a buckled Jet and a higher number wave pattern as possible, to the average bloke in the street it makes no difference as the weather can be exactly the same and perhaps even wetter than with rampant zonailty but further down the line the differences can be stark.

Yes, the jet imo will show quite extreme meandering this winter.  However, sometimes that can lead to deep LP/displaced vortex over UK and the south misses the real snow party....but a meridional jet opens up many possibilities 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS to roll in a few minutes, but looking first at the ICON the most noticeable feature in the NH is the Scandi block, even at T120 I really don't see the inroads by the Atlantic on the UK weather, brick wall!

image.thumb.jpg.8d19072e1c4b6c2241126b9c84734f47.jpg

I think this high pressure feature might develop a bit in future runs! 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS to roll in a few minutes, but looking first at the ICON the most noticeable feature in the NH is the Scandi block, even at T120 I really don't see the inroads by the Atlantic on the UK weather, brick wall!

image.thumb.jpg.8d19072e1c4b6c2241126b9c84734f47.jpg

I think this high pressure feature might develop a bit in future runs! 

Even on the arpege its quiet a robust high at 114 hours!!could it be possible that we could see a rapid change to colder weather in the models!!its happened before!!

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

It needs to become a cut off high for that to happen, and that doesn't look likely from there. As much as I want it to. The jet is not very robust. However, a few tweaks, and Robert is your father's brother!

Edited by Rocheydub
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS has us under a rain storm at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.697ca1b41db348a518fc2a15997b41e8.jpg

I'm not convinced though.  Too much uncertainty earlier on for me. I don't think the block will be pushed aside that easily. But the 4 wave pattern still predicted by the models, we enter interesting territory...

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Another day another horrid GFS 00z ...

I'll give Gfs one thing and that is its consistently zonal.( flow off the Atlantic) pretty much as far as the eye can see..

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Another day another horrid GFS 00z ...

I'll give Gfs one thing and that is its consistently zonal.( flow off the Atlantic) pretty much as far as the eye can see..

And while some bemoan 'another horrid GFS 0z.' The meto quietly insert the the word snow into the extended (15-30 day) outlook.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And while se bemoan 'another dire GFS 0z.' The meto quietly insert the the word snow into the extended (15-30 day) outlook.

Yes im a bit confused by it if im honest...

They are talking late November though so the usual caveats apply.

Ad a fan of cold foggy frosty weather in November some of the outputs are horrid...15/16 degrees this week is just awful for November.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im sure he will lose sleep over your comments.

Whats your thoughts Feb? Outputs seem to have gone very zonal pretty much since Exeter plumped for a cold 2nd half of November..

Ok its only the 5th but looking at GFS again this morning i cant see much hope of a cold high by mid Nov.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Have just read the meto update and it sounds like high pressure in the vicinity bringing colder nights / days. Pretty normal for winter I would say.

The hear and now paints a picture of fat euro high, trough out west and us in no man's land - how many times have we been here before. In terms of members painting a future picture of Narnia without any charts - all part of the norm round these parts of the forum in November.

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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