Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

Going here, https://www.nassfeld.at/en/aktiv/skifahren-oesterreich/skigebiet-nassfeld

The resort is at approx. 1560m asl, would presume there will be enough snow by then to enjoy. It's though fascinating how stubborn this euro high has been since May. It will be some timing to get rid of it just in time for December, wouldn't it?

A lot of people are looking at what is going to happen to the north of us, re Scandi high or Greenland high, but do not focus on the key area between Black sea and Baltics, it is there where we got the most stubborn high omnipresent. If you don't get rid of this anomaly you can forget about longevity of any cold spells, I also understand that there is no time for any conclusions and patterns can switch even though they were present for like 6 months now.

I know a lot of people who are starting to wonder when  will this endless summer in central Europe(26 degrees measured in Hungary other day) going to end. Period between May until to date  has been the warmest on record, only not for cold Feb/March this year would have been also the warmest on record in Central Europe by a fair margin.

 

 

Yes, interesting choice of resort. Not many know of it but is the biggest in the state of Carinthia. Also the sunniest spot in Austria. I have been to Nassfeld- Hermajor a few times as its not that far from here. The long Carnia Run is a real pleasure to ski . I remember, think it was 2014/15 winter when most of Europe was having a wet and stormy mild winter, Nassfeld Resort had 300cm of snowfall making it one of the best in the whole of Europe that particular winter with semi-  permanent low circulation over the Venetian Alps that held off the onslaught from the Atlantic into this region. Just happens that the snow line is increasing year after year , so think your relatively high resort should be ok. All part of lady luck for what weather you get, hopefully full snow cover before your arrival and then sunny day !

C

[summer blizzard]

I can't copy from my phone but look to the tropics for current modelling as it explains much. A wave moving east in the Pacific during late October promoted high pressure to our north and east, a trade burst in the central pacific is being followed by a westerly outlook. There are signs of westerly wind bursts in the central and eastern Pacific upcoming so look to the last third.

The Euro was interesting at day 10. A long fetch WNW (cool, wet, windy) likely followed by a northerly down the line. There are routes to cold still even if not 05/10.

[Mike Poole]

Just to sum up the uncertainty at the moment, here's the last 4 CFS runs for December, 

Which can be summed up as a dog's breakfast or a pig's breakfast, any road some kind of breakfast, but given the charts are averages over a month, what I take from this is all possibilities are in play going into winter.  Rather have this than the guaranteed zonal onslaught, and noting recent previous CFS runs  have gone for a -AO.

Edited November 4, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Bogman]

It being the 4th November, I'd take seasonal for the next month or so, any day of the week.

 

[jules216]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Yes, interesting choice of resort. Not many know of it but is the biggest in the state of Carinthia. Also the sunniest spot in Austria. I have been to Nassfeld- Hermajor a few times as its not that far from here. The long Carnia Run is a real pleasure to ski . I remember, think it was 2014/15 winter when most of Europe was having a wet and stormy mild winter, Nassfeld Resort had 300cm of snowfall making it one of the best in the whole of Europe that particular winter with semi-  permanent low circulation over the Venetian Alps that held off the onslaught from the Atlantic into this region. Just happens that the snow line is increasing year after year , so think your relatively high resort should be ok. All part of lady luck for what weather you get, hopefully full snow cover before your arrival and then sunny day !

C

I will be learning the basics of downhill skiing only, as I only focused on cross country before. So hope to find a long blue run, or a donkey meadow for my use

We got that as a Christmas gift from family and I will be celebrating returning home to Slovakia for good after living in Ireland for over 15 years!

From what you mentioned I thing we will be okay with snow and scenery will be stunning, unless we get some crazy foehn effect under long fetch southerlies

 

 

[Mike Poole]

Re this block, seen here on ICON 12z at T168:

And again T180:

I just don't think this block is going to move like some of the earlier model runs might suggest, I think the smart money is in continued blocking, probably nothing cold for the UK in the short term, but later... 

GFS 12z trickling out...watch the block...

Edited November 4, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Polar Maritime]

A few post have had to go, Please only discuss Model Outputs in here and leave the METO extended forecasts thread for the correct thread.

Thanks please continue.

[Geordiesnow]

30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Re this block, seen here on ICON 12z at T168:

And again T180:

I just don't think this block is going to move like some of the earlier model runs might suggest, I think the smart money is in continued blocking, probably nothing cold for the UK in the short term, but later... 

GFS 12z trickling out...watch the block...

Yep and the ongoing trend of the Atlantic being more of a player in the UK weather rather than anything to do with the warm block. With the trigger low/shortwave pushing further eastwards, it allows the main low in the Atlantic to edge eastwards and instead of southerly to SSE'ly winds for most of the week, the winds are going be more of a SW'ly from mid-week albeit via a cooler origin so whilst still staying mild, the 2nd part of next week should be marginally cooler than the first half where temperatures in the East could potentially reach the high teens by Tuesday. 

All standard Autumn weather mind so whilst no cold is on the horizon it certainly an seasonal outlook with windy weather at times with a small potential for severe gales to occur although as ever, the GFS is probably over deepening any Atlantic lows. 

[Mike Poole]

Charts of the main models at T144:

I'm with the GEM at the moment. Think the Scandi block will prove to resist what the Atlantic has to throw at it.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hi, which resort are you going to for Christmas ? Yes, this time last year we already had some snow on the piste and preparation was well on time for the seasonal start. So far, this Autumn heading for one of the warmest ever in parts of Central and Eastern Europe. The longer term charts I have been told over here do indicate a strong Polar front to move through much of Europe towards the last 10 days of this month with the establishment of a more northerly block. Should get an update tomorrow morning when I will push for a bit more information from our resort portal forecast team. Fingers cross !

C

That sits very well with me C.  

I am liking what the models are beginning to show towards midmonth .  The development onto a colder theme taking hold increases in plausibility.  Very early days but I have a feels no that at some stage not too far ahead we will see some steady consistency. 

Cannot upload images but the idea posted above 

BFTP

 

[Mike Poole]

I'm definitely with the GEM now 

 

[Met4Cast]

Not to cherry pick but the GEM is along the lines of where I expect the models to begin trending in the coming days. The UKMO at 144 is not too diss-similar, less blocking to the North but I suspect if the chart went out further we would see heights developing over Greenland as is already slightly the case

The GEM has stronger heights at the same time frame

The GFS isn't miles away from this either although it has the low pressure being a little deeper and further North, weaker heights means the low isn't being forced Southwards as per GEM. 

Small baby steps, but steps forward nonetheless today. Still bookmarking the last week or possibly 2 of November for colder weather, though not necessarily exceptionally cold.

[Leo97t]

GFS looks particularly 2009 esque in the latest run with a huge trough holding over the Uk and heights slowly creeping up over greenland.

[WalsallWeather123]

I honestly don't see where this cold spell, which is supposedly coming at the end of the month, is coming from. I think our weather will be Atlantic driven until December. No model is showing a sustained period of blocking which can keep the Atlantic at bay

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I honestly don't see where this cold spell, which is supposedly coming at the end of the month, is coming from. I think our weather will be Atlantic driven until December. No model is showing a sustained period of blocking which can keep the Atlantic at bay

 

I'm struggling myself but a month is a long time in the weather- hopefully we will see some more positive outputs over the next few days

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I honestly don't see where this cold spell, which is supposedly coming at the end of the month, is coming from. I think our weather will be Atlantic driven until December. No model is showing a sustained period of blocking which can keep the Atlantic at bay

 

What cold spell?

 

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I'm struggling myself but a month is a long time in the weather- hopefully we will see some more positive outputs over the next few days

Indeed it is and weather changes all the time but I think instead of chasing for the cold, its always the case a trend need to established in the medium term to have any real confidence in it. Theres been high confidence for a while that the start of November will be a mild one and at times quite exceptionally mild but hints are things will be more Atlantic driven with marginally cooler air although temperatures remaining average.

I always say, in terms of looking for cold shots, I rather have Northerlies in the first part of winter rather than easterlies. 

[Rayth]

5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I honestly don't see where this cold spell, which is supposedly coming at the end of the month, is coming from. I think our weather will be Atlantic driven until December. No model is showing a sustained period of blocking which can keep the Atlantic at bay

 

No model is showing a sustained level of consistency past 6/7 days either 

[SMU]

7 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Almost tropical like in the mountains this morning. Warmer with height. currently +10C at 2200m asl. Latest fax chart for most of the week indicating much of the same regarding the very mild conditions to persist . The UK  not looking good stuck under rinse and spin against the block. By day 7 ,we expect some lower thickness values to seep in from the west, so a slow change to cooler temps in our part of the world. Longer term charts I have been told are similar offerings to UK Met Office forecast for a gradual change to much colder conditions in the last 3rd of the month. However, not privy to view these. So from ski resort preparation point of view its a matter of sit back and wait and see. Certainly not good at the moment in the short to medium term in the hunt for cold and snow.

C

yes Mate no good especially for low resorts...

Anyway the PM runs are mixed in this high entropy phase -

GEM getting a wedge of undercutting ( including the ICON ) - UKMO not so keen-

FWIW the GFS have edges towards the undercut at 132 V 138 although its still 50/50

12z V 06z further SE with the low

Theres also better heights to the north on the 12z ^^

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me The idea of the cold pattern trying to take hold as per the model variation is good....it won’t imo be as quick as GEM unless that passes through as an attempt....but its looking good.  Late Nov real cold digging in (E/NE feed) and snow for low level south Uk by months’ end....the switch will be pretty quick when it steps in.

 

BFTP

[WalsallWeather123]

IMO, people have taken the MO long forecast as gospel for a cold spell in early December. Of course a month is a long time but posting individual member charts as to try and convince a cold spell is coming isn't too clever. 

[WalsallWeather123]

32 minutes ago, Johnp said:

What cold spell?

 

The one that everyone claims is coming at the end of the month

 

[Mapantz]

14 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

  Late Nov real cold digging in (E/NE feed) and snow for low level south Uk by months’ end....the switch will be pretty quick when it steps in.

Do you have any charts to back this up? Or, is it just saying things people want to hear? It's familiar story at the moment, so a few charts and some explanations would be helpful to the majority of viewers on here.

[Always a red]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The one that everyone claims is coming at the end of the month

 

Its the one the MO are more than hinting at but of course you know that anyway

[WalsallWeather123]

4 minutes ago, Always a red said:

Its the one the MO are more than hinting at but of course you know that anyway

The point is that it's long range. It may or may not happen. I'm not saying it won't, I'm just suggesting the models don't show any signs of that at the moment. Therefore, it is very hard to predict. When people post a chart of one the GEFS members which show an easterly, they go into snow Armageddon mode. I'm just saying expectations need to be kept in check. This is a hunt for cold thread, not plucking cold out of thin air thread. Anyway end of topic.

Edited November 4, 2018 by WalsallWeather123