Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Chesil View]

51 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

See my post above, i suspect the MO are seeing the same thing that I am, expect blocking to begin showing in the models in the next few days with any milder, Atlantic driven weather being pushed back and back

Indeed so Daniel. That is how the meto extended up date started to hint at the Nov Dec2010 spell. First it's possible below average temps and precipitation turning wintry.. ...... Then a few days later it's winds becoming northeast with showers turning Increasingly to snow and the before you know it it's temps well below average and snow becoming widespread. Well that's what we hope anyway. 

[BruenSryan]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

That's not a shabby anomaly for December

I suspect the UK and Ireland (moreso Ireland than the UK) would be very unlucky at times with such a 500mb height anomaly if it were to verify. Why do I say this? The trough is just a bit too far west to really lock into severe and prolonged cold easterly flows. Most of us would be in a no man's land scenario with mild air battling against an easterly flow trying to occur. Think Scotland would get away well though. If the trough were centred or extended further eastwards into Europe, hell yeah, locked into the freezer!

Anyway, not worth delving into further than that as it's only one single CFS run which changes every few hours and every day so reliability is out the window.

Edited November 3, 2018 by BruenSryan

[Mike Poole]

Some ridge on the UKMO at T144:

You'd think that would disturb the vortex a bit, a tad less defined on GFS though:

My intuition is that model output beyond this timeframe may be unreliable in the current scenario.  

Edited November 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Actually some resorts are having an early start to the season

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/winter-s-coming---_season-starts-for-some-ski-areas/44518888

Try reading what I wrote then guess what..

Some of the 'higher' resorts. 

Once the southerly wind blows across most of Europe - so the fohn effect will melt any early snow apart from all but the highest resorts.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Paul

[BlueHedgehog074]

Regarding @BruenSryan‘s post, this would be the sort of 500mb anomaly you would need to see for some proper cold and wintry conditions for the UK! 

‘Tis important to see a trough of Low Pressure pushing well East into Mainland Europe to our South to help squeeze some polar bear-like weather Westwards towards the U.K.

Edit: And let’s keep this place friendly please. Thanks!

Edited November 3, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[ICE COLD]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Try reading what I wrote then guess what..

Some of the 'higher' resorts. 

Once the southerly wind blows across most of Europe - so the fohn effect will melt any early snow apart from all but the highest resorts.

Any updates on your thoughts steve , regarding cold weather ??  Or is it off the table for at least a couple of weeks . 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Nick L

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Regarding @BruenSryan‘s post, this would be the sort of 500mb anomaly you would need to see for some proper cold and wintry conditions for the UK! 

‘Tis important to see a trough of Low Pressure pushing well East into Mainland Europe to our South to help squeeze some polar bear-like weather Westwards towards the U.K.

Only problem with that is the UK seems to have been airbrushed out of existence!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Only problem with that is the UK seems to have been airbrushed out of existence!

Yeah true! Must be all that freezing weather.

Had to include a little U.K mark on top of the illustration over our part of the world, but even that text is quite hard to see, lol.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Really?

How on earth are they seeing anything remotely wintry ?

Unless iv'e missed something, the 00z runs out as far as the eye can see look, well,a bit uneventful to say the least!!

NWS....individual runs are pointless in FI.....you know that!?

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

44 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

NWS....individual runs are pointless in FI.....you know that!?

BFTP

Too right Fred. That's why I've perfected the 'No Runs Method'. It's easier on the old ticker than repeatedly watching Day 10's blizzards disappear before they get to Day 5!

[Mike Poole]

Well this evenings ECM and FV3 diverge spectacularly at T240, here ECM first:

FV3 then builds the heights right in towards the pole by T336:

Just illustrating possibilities at this stage, and reinforcing the unreliability of the models after day 7 or so. Interesting to see where November goes.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well this evenings ECM and FV3 diverge spectacularly at T240, here ECM first:.

The FV3 is by a country mile the pick of the op runs tonight.

[Froze were the Days]

Woeful op runs from the ecm and GFS and have continued to be so for the last few days...best the country can muster in the next week/10 days is the odd day of returning Pm from the west or south west - says it all!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All !.Short term into next week one notable thing for next week is the wind chill coming from a Southerly direction very unusual for this time of year by mid week ...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All !.Short term into next week one notable thing for next week is the wind chill coming from a Southerly direction very unusual for this time of year by mid week ...

Wrong thread? this is for cold surely for other model thread

[Mike Poole]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Too right Fred. That's why I've perfected the 'No Runs Method'. It's easier on the old ticker than repeatedly watching Day 10's blizzards disappear before they get to Day 5!

Is commenting on the rest of us commenting on the models at Day 10 really less stressful than commenting on them directly?

meanwhile, 18z dribbling out, here at T102, big polar ridge from Scandi 

Edited November 3, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

I mean, please, we're into rocking horse territory with the GFS 18z at T228:

Well a horses head is what it looks like to me anyway!  

Big ridge to our east though , maybe see where this leads.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I mean, please, we're into rocking horse territory with the GFS 18z at T228:

Well a horses head is what it looks like to me anyway!  

Big ridge to our east though , maybe see where this leads.

Looks like a donkey to me.

[WalsallWeather123]

Half an attempt of a scandi high on the GFS 18z

 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T276:

Shades of the FV3 12z run I would suggest.  Good signs at the end of the day.  I'm sure there's something in my theory of 0z runs being rubbish and afternoon/evening runs being great!   Viva la pub run!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T276:

Shades of the FV3 12z run I would suggest.  Good signs at the end of the day.  I'm sure there's something in my theory of 0z runs being rubbish and afternoon/evening runs being great!   Viva la pub run!

I tell you what i have noticed when we are in the middle of a will it wont it cold snap, there seems to be a flip on the 0z runs saturday and the 0z runs monday whatever goes on to happen. I would say generally to worse charts but not exclusively but certainly seems to show at least a variation on a pattern if not a different pattern.

[JBMWeatherForever]

Looks like an increasing possibility of an easterly from or soon after mid month ! 

 

[ICE COLD]

That's what we wanna be seeing low pressure driving SE into Europe. 

Dosent do anythink of note on this run but that's what we want more off . 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

That's what we wanna be seeing low pressure driving SE into Europe. 

Dosent do anythink of note on this run but that's what we want more off . 

Yes preferably with the whole pattern further West though, which given its the GFS, its quite possible we will do when it comes into the reliable.

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That's what we wanna be seeing low pressure driving SE into Europe. 

Dosent do anythink of note on this run but that's what we want more off . 

Firstly that's a super crab with claws out pic!  Yes, we definitely want low heights into Southern Europe in the start to winter.  This is much more important for putting the chess pieces in place than cold in the UK now.

GFS 18z at T240:

I think this massive block to our NE may have to be taken seriously.