Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

06z GEFS are not too bad with a few trying to get some kind of easterly with the lows diving south and still showing blocking to our north

      

GEM 0z with the same kind of idea 

 

[BruenSryan]

40 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Based on experience, and the charts you peeps have kindly posted, I think November 2 is way to early for getting despondent...I'll be interested in seeing how Europe's snowcover stands, one month from now.

Far too early is an understatement. Only need history to prove it.

4 November 1946..... the warmest November day on record before 2015 in the UK and Ireland. Prestatyn recorded a max. of 21.7c. Even Edinburgh got up to 20.6c on the same day. Not much sign of Winter?

Yeah. Now look at exactly 3 months later..... 4 February 1947. Sometimes you can see teasers for the Winter in November but it can change dramatically. November has no effect on how the Winter will pan out.

For instance, the year that broke the 1946 November record high; 2015. This was followed by a totally different Winter to 1946-47. 1946-47 was one of the coldest (and snowiest) on record of all-time whilst 2015-16 was the second warmest on record back to 1659 behind 1868-69.

Or late 2010

First 4 days of November 2010:

Final week of November 2010:

Don't cast a clout 'til May is out.

[tight isobar]

31 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Far too early is an understatement. Only need history to prove it.

4 November 1946..... the warmest November day on record before 2015 in the UK and Ireland. Prestatyn recorded a max. of 21.7c. Even Edinburgh got up to 20.6c on the same day. Not much sign of Winter?

Yeah. Now look at exactly 3 months later..... 4 February 1947. Sometimes you can see teasers for the Winter in November but it can change dramatically. November has no effect on how the Winter will pan out.

For instance, the year that broke the 1946 November record high; 2015. This was followed by a totally different Winter to 1946-47. 1946-47 was one of the coldest (and snowiest) on record of all-time whilst 2015-16 was the second warmest on record back to 1659 behind 1868-69.

Or late 2010

First 4 days of November 2010:

Final week of November 2010:

Don't cast a clout 'til May is out.

A nice evaluation there...

And yes fully expected..run2run-suite2suite divergence expected as the models play with the HUGE- blocking potentials.

Some dramatic-latter frame swings over the nxt 7 days...as the above evo's toy.

Anyway-again a very good 'overall' theme continues to be played out.

 

[stodge]

Afternoon all

I'm not wholly convinced at this time. I'm still seeing a lot of FI output dragging us back into a more zonal picture with HP sinking SE into Europe as the jet fires up.

To be fair, the 06Z Parallel is a very different animal:

Obviously a ridiculously long way away but in tune with some of the LRF signals.

It should also be stressed none of this means three months of storm force easterlies and -20 850s for the UK (I'm fairly confident about that).

[summer blizzard]

As exciting as this is even if going with the Met Office, it ia highly unlikely they expect the same high to persist for two weeks and then produce the cool weather.

Folks should enjoy the fact that we are as yet not looking at zonality for another ten days.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

06z GEFS are not too bad with a few trying to get some kind of easterly with the lows diving south and still showing blocking to our north

      

GEM 0z with the same kind of idea 

 

So 3 perterbations show this out of how many please?

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

So 3 perterbations show this out of how many please?

To be fair Kirkcaldy Weather did say a 'few', not most. Also, 20...so 15% show something with an easterly component, but you knew that already. 

[coldie]

5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

So 3 perterbations show this out of how many please?

It doesn't matter how many are showing though does it, after all this is the hunt for cold thread 

[johnholmes]

To answer the two comments above.

No I did not know how many which is why I asked, thank you for giving me that information.

Yes it is the search for cold and yes the post did say a few. All I am doing, if I am allowed is to give another viewpoint.

My comment is largely based on the 500 mb anomaly charts going out, (with NOAA) to day 14. This is as far as I normally give comment. Currently they are not giving the indication, 2 out of the 3, that is that the perterbations shown suggest.

[Mike Poole]

Main models at T144, UKMO, GEM, GFS:

There will doubtless be conversations about the later stages of these runs and others, but if this sort of thing verifies in just 6 days time,  then the model output at that time for the rest of November might look quite peachy! 

 

Edited November 2, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

So 3 perterbations show this out of how many please?

control 

P1 

P2 

P6

P7  

P8  

P9 

P10 

P11 

P12 

P13 

P14 

P15  

P16 

P17 

P18 

So that is the control run and 15 members out of the 20 showing either a weak easterly or some form of blocking either to our east / north east or north / north west at some point in the run

[bluearmy]

31 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

To answer the two comments above.

No I did not know how many which is why I asked, thank you for giving me that information.

Yes it is the search for cold and yes the post did say a few. All I am doing, if I am allowed is to give another viewpoint.

My comment is largely based on the 500 mb anomaly charts going out, (with NOAA) to day 14. This is as far as I normally give comment. Currently they are not giving the indication, 2 out of the 3, that is that the perterbations shown suggest.

I think this thread is a pretty dangerous place for a real forecaster to find themselves John !

Often it’s cherry picking at its finest but then it isn’t pretending to be anything else !

[Methuselah]

34 minutes ago, coldie said:

It doesn't matter how many are showing though does it, after all this is the hunt for cold thread 

Which means that anything bearing even the slightest hint of meteorological realism goes straight out the window? No wonder the tabloid press is always picking-up on silly predictions of imminent Snowmageddon...

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think this thread is a pretty dangerous place for a real forecaster to find themselves John !

Often it’s cherry picking at its finest but then it isn’t pretending to be anything else !

I actually like the idea of this thread, in my mind it should not mean that you have to 'make up' cold, its really IMO to stop people posting 1 ens member at 384 showing an armageddon type scenario in the regular model output discussion thread when there is other things to talk about for fans of different weather types, in other words this is the thread for cold fans but it doesnt mean that you cant say it will be mild, you can be gutted it will be mild but still say so, also it doesnt mean you cant talk about cold in the other thread if its a likely scenario, what the split up of threads is for IMO is to stop mild fans gloating when cold doesn't happen and also to stop cold fans gloating while other people are sitting there without heating and with flooded houses due to burst pipes having to read it.

[Leo97t]

GFS 12z is okay is the reliable but let's not talk about how it ends 

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

GFS 12z is okay is the reliable but let's not talk about how it ends 

the gfs is crud when it come to high pressure over Europe,scandinavia etc,always it want to push the atlantic  through no matter what ,feb 1947 would never have happened if the gfs had been around then

[Mike Poole]

Still some good blocks on the GEFS, P12 looks a good'un at T216:

The real thing T276:

Edited November 2, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Always a red]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually like the idea of this thread, in my mind it should not mean that you have to 'make up' cold, its really IMO to stop people posting 1 ens member at 384 showing an armageddon type scenario in the regular model output discussion thread when there is other things to talk about for fans of different weather types, in other words this is the thread for cold fans but it doesnt mean that you cant say it will be mild, you can be gutted it will be mild but still say so, also it doesnt mean you cant talk about cold in the other thread if its a likely scenario, what the split up of threads is for IMO is to stop mild fans gloating when cold doesn't happen and also to stop cold fans gloating while other people are sitting there without heating and with flooded houses due to burst pipes having to read it.

Exactly right! I think the new threads are mostly working, so far anyway, giving posters with all preferences a little more guidance thus avoiding a few more fallouts along the way this winter

Now if only we could do something with the `like`(troll) button...…………

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Always a red said:

Exactly right! I think the new threads are mostly working, so far anyway, giving posters with all preferences a little more guidance thus avoiding a few more fallouts along the way this winter

Now if only we could do something with the `like`(troll) button...…………

The true test will be when we lose model consensus on an Easterly and a few of us jump ship and get called trolls.

Not sure why people have so much beef with the like system, its never bothered me or angered me to be honest, you do hear some 'i dont want like's' which is usually a thinly veiled 'please give me some because i feel left out'

[Snipper]

I ponder whether what happened back in 1946 is entirely relevant to some posts. Aren’t we in a different global situation? Yes look back but the situation now is entirely different. I seem to recall that this time last year some had already written off the winter. For some of us it was cold and extended. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16 minutes ago, Always a red said:

Exactly right! I think the new threads are mostly working, so far anyway, giving posters with all preferences a little more guidance thus avoiding a few more fallouts along the way this winter

Now if only we could do something with the `like`(troll) button...…………

rep system should be scrapped, will mean less hopecast, 'fish 4 likes' posts

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I ponder whether what happened back in 1946 is entirely relevant to some posts. Aren’t we in a different global situation? Yes look back but the situation now is entirely different. I seem to recall that this time last year some had already written off the winter. For some of us it was cold and extended. 

But this the thread for cold-hunting, Snipper...What does it matter if peeps need go back 72-years to find any!

[Mapantz]

Could we please get back to the topic at hand?! It's not the place to discuss the reputation system or about falling's out- they're are caused by going off-topic themselves.

[Always a red]

Anyway back on topic, many apologies for waffling mods 

Edited November 2, 2018 by Mapantz
Moving the conversation along

[Mike Poole]

Oh dear!

(ECM T240) But don't worry, the probability of ending up here is minuscule given the other model output I would suggest.  Let's get to the middle of next week with the push of heights north and maybe towards Greenland and see what the models say then...I of course will refrain from model watching until that point - not...

Edited November 2, 2018 by Mike Poole