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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

6z is absolutely fine IMO, if that quasi-permanent Scandi high stays in the same position for 2 weeks attacking the PV then trust me, we will nail a stonking blocking pattern before this years out.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Agree with your first part but you don't apply that logic with the second part.

Getting zonal out of the way doesn't work because the weather does not have a balance then says "right you have had 4 weeks of zonal weather, now some blocking" 

Also zonality doesn't get into a rut, it will last as long as the circumstances of the time allow it. We had dire zonality predictions the previous winter to last and it lasted less than a week! 

To know the length of any spell of weather is like knowing how long is a piece of string.

Not entirely true.  More and more we are seeing a certain pattern remain for lengthy periods of time.  But let’s not get mixed up here that I believe we have weeks and weeks of zoneality ahead....it was purely a comment on the 0z run

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

6z is absolutely fine IMO, if that quasi-permanent Scandi high stays in the same position for 2 weeks attacking the PV then trust me, we will nail a stonking blocking pattern before this years out.

Agree Feb, the 06z is a much more interesting run when looking for a cold pattern to emerge.  The angle of attack of LPs, the southerly track of them....and block disrupting them 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
48 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Agree Feb, the 06z is a much more interesting run when looking for a cold pattern to emerge.  The angle of attack of LPs, the southerly track of them....and block disrupting them 

 

BFTP

Also, GEFS 6z are very good, a few Easterlies in there although without cold uppers but more than half, perhaps significantly more either show blocking, potential blocking in the right place.

Here's  the pick - huge frigid pool to the east, ready to cross a warm North sea.

gensnh-16-1-384_xjc5.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Also, GEFS 6z are very good, a few Easterlies in there although without cold uppers but more than half, perhaps significantly more either show blocking, potential blocking in the right place.

Here's  the pick - huge frigid pool to the east, ready to cross a warm North sea.

gensnh-16-1-384_xjc5.png

Wow what a stunning run p16 is. Probably would have sub zero maxima widely down the line. - 10 isotherm just off the east coast

GFSP16EU06_384_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Wow what a stunning run p16 is. Probably would have sub zero maxima widely down the line. - 10 isotherm just off the east coast

GFSP16EU06_384_2.png

Theres quite a few that bring a continental flow but not with that upper cold extremety

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Yes the 06z GFS has a lot more potential then the 00z ECM.

It looks as though the weather will be stuck in a rut next week. The jet is weak but low pressure is stuck over the North Atlantic. Certainly not zonal but a very mild pattern still.

ECMOPNH00_120_1.png

 

Then on the ECM we get some cold pooling over Canada which looks like as though it will pour into the North Atlantic:

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

I can see a zonal pattern setting up from that. The GFS 06z goes down a bit of a different route though..., it becomes cyclonic but energy goes south but the cold doesn't get close to us unfortunately. The GFS parallel is also rather similar:

GFSOPNH06_300_1.png GFSPARANH06_300_1.png

P16 really is impressive... we can dream lol. Think there would be some pretty hefty snow showers for eastern areas if it came off!

Shame its T384...

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Well, well, well 

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

Image result for well well well

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 12z..'very close' to a perfect format...

And highlights both-non needed knee jerk reactions...and the borderline we are sitting on.

Classic model divergence-in an evolving fall off the wall scenario.

Peak blocking formats solid !...

And resolve..and momentum also good.

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As ever in this scenario stick with the UKMO > ECM / ICON > Finally GEM & GFS

The UKMO already progging a significantly stronger high pressure than GFS- Expect the usual westward corrections - watch the cold wave coming SE through Scandi...

Shades of March 13

Edited by Steve Murr
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12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As ever in this scenario stick with the UKMO > ECM / ICON > Finally GEM & GFS

The UKMO already progging a significantly stronger high pressure than GFS- Expect the usual westward corrections - watch the cold wave coming SE through Scandi...

Shades of March 13

Steve do you mind showing the March 2013 charts because I don't see where you're coming from with that comparison 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As ever in this scenario stick with the UKMO > ECM / ICON > Finally GEM & GFS

The UKMO already progging a significantly stronger high pressure than GFS- Expect the usual westward corrections - watch the cold wave coming SE through Scandi...

Shades of March 13

TBF Steve 12z UKMO looks quite different to the 00z run, i suspect the models generally are struggling with energy distribution in the Atlantic.

Of course i for one will be delighted if the anticyclone can divert energy in the Atlantic towards Iberia/Southern Europe..

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
47 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

12 GFS making some of this mornings comments look very silly indeed. Look at the angle the Atlantic is attacking at!

 

angle.png

Not if any comment referred to a particular run, some have taken a comment out of context, and tbf though sometimes a horror show does get latched onto and becomes a trend.  Anyway 06z and 12z are very good, attempts at setting a cold pattern but failing.......initially imo as we head deeper into Nov.  Quicksilver makes an interesting point re serious cold potentially spilling out of Canada.....especially if the block holds and shifts north forcing jet more south.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBF Steve 12z UKMO looks quite different to the 00z run, i suspect the models generally are struggling with energy distribution in the Atlantic.

Of course i for one will be delighted if the anticyclone can divert energy in the Atlantic towards Iberia/Southern Europe..

The blocking 'sync'...with tilt advect-..looks prime for energy squeezing south...

Again with a fancy of a push into the pole.. and the trop being split.

Its a cracking scenario at this time...

Ecm 12z.. may punch this situ clearer.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As ever in this scenario stick with the UKMO > ECM / ICON > Finally GEM & GFS

The UKMO already progging a significantly stronger high pressure than GFS- Expect the usual westward corrections - watch the cold wave coming SE through Scandi...

Shades of March 13

Going into a cold season and not coming out......could get very interesting as we get end of month into EARLY DECEMBER

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I take it you've still got faith that things will improve in a months time, with your main period of interest occurring late December still?

Yes of course, early Dec to be of interest too....late December into Jan is a main referral to ‘winter of discontent’.  That’s how I’m seeing it

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As ever in this scenario stick with the UKMO > ECM / ICON > Finally GEM & GFS

The UKMO already progging a significantly stronger high pressure than GFS- Expect the usual westward corrections - watch the cold wave coming SE through Scandi...

Shades of March 13

I can see what you mean by March 2013, the key point for cold isn't too far away. IMO its T144... here is what we want to happen for a future cold spell
image.thumb.png.1b5162094fbf9d08c2cd3d5939c1f70c.png
 

But at T168 we don't get things right....

image.thumb.png.2101d9c0972f65c41de16bc0be34344e.png

Cold isn't allowed to build over Scandi as more mild air wraps around the low to the west. For reference here is an example where it does come together and as you say it was March 2013:

CFSR_1_2013030918_1.png

But we have seen quite a switch since last nights 18z at the same time (T162) which didn't look exciting at all:

GFSOPEU18_162_1.png

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Only P2 manages to start filtering the cold into Scandi but look what happens thereafter:

GFSP02EU12_204_1.png GFSP02EU12_228_1.png GFSP02EU12_252_1.png GFSP02EU12_276_1.png

 

Then blizzards threatening later for the East :D

GFSP02EU12_348_1.png GFSP02EU12_348_2.png

 

We live in hope...

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

P2 with pretty much the perfect setup and reminiscent of 2010 tempresult_rkh5.gif tempresult_fdi3.gif tempresult_hvc4.gif 

P7 not far off getting the cold air in gensnh-7-1-336.png gensnh-7-0-348.png

P9 gensnh-9-5-324.png

P17 gensnh-17-1-360.png gensnh-17-5-384.png gensnh-17-0-384.png

P18 gensnh-18-1-336.png gensnh-18-5-336.png gensnh-18-0-348.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

And just for the benefit who dont know, P2 goes on to build a long lasting, big stonking Greenland block and an almighty blizzard crippling Eastern Britain.

gensnh-2-1-348_pnx0.png

EDIT : already beaten to it by QS.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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