Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models this morning show the hunt for cold is going to be a difficult one

 

BFTP

[northwestsnow]

GEFS 00z look pretty wet it has to be said, a lot of rainfall spikes even for London.

Personally while im always looking for cold i'm not too bothered if we get an extended period of Atlantic dross, rather now than Dec /Jan,Still hoping Exeter keep the faith of a HP dominated 2nd half of November as i do enjoy dry cold weather in November.

[carinthian]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The models this morning show the hunt for cold is going to be a difficult one

 

BFTP

You can say that again Fred. Woke up this morning and nearly chocked on my Alpin ! . That chart for the end of next week is just the worst set up for Euro high right over us. 16c forecast for the end of next week in Salzburg and here in the mountains 13 C  at 850mb pressure level ( 5,000ft asl)) That's crazy warmth. Rinse and Spin for the UK. Just ghastly.

C

[MR EXTREMES]

25 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The models this morning show the hunt for cold is going to be a difficult one

 

BFTP

Indeed heights are lowering to our north after few runs showing a Greenland heights this has now been downgraded alot.

Also Azores heights and euro heights are more a hindrance than help.

With pressure higher through the Mediterranean.

Zonal seems to theme for awhile,

but then winter 2009/10 didn't get going until the end of November.

My fear would be that polar vortex is starting to ramp up.

We need a reversal or split with more of a Scandinavian dominant vortex rather than a Canadian or Greenland vortex.

Anyway the ECM has a habit of going for Greenland heights to then just dropping the idea and leaving the idea until the end of the run.

But maybe let's get the zonal out the way and perhaps another bite of the cherry will pop out of nowhere.

 

Edited November 1, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[SLEETY]

37 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The models this morning show the hunt for cold is going to be a difficult one

 

BFTP

Since when do we get notable cold weather at this time of year anyway,looking at past weather events, it’s rare to get cold long lasting spells before the new year either,and it’s only the 1st of November,talk about overreaction 

Many cold spells develop quite quickly even if it looked completely hopeless for cold weather,once again looking back at the archives.

 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Getting zonal out of the way doesn’t work imo.  We don’t want to get into that rut

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Since when do we get notable cold weather at this time of year anyway,looking at past weather events, it’s rare to get cold long lasting spells before the new year either,and it’s only the 1st of November,talk about overreaction 

Many cold spells develop quite quickly even if it looked completely hopeless for cold weather,once again looking back at the archives.

 

 

 

It’s a comment Sleety and on the GFS and ECM this morning an accurate one, what you saying one can’t comment now?  No one is saying they have nailed the outlook

 

BFTP

Edited November 1, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Getting zonal out of the way doesn’t work imo.  We don’t want to get into that rut

 

BFTP

Yes i get your point Fred, i do agree with you to a certain extent.But looking at the data to hand i would suggest a period of Atlantic weather now looks unavoidable- hopefully if we can get the jet to angle into Europe we can do away with the extensive Euro blocking, i don't mind if there is a Euro high with the prospect of the high moving north but again, looking at the 00z runs that now looks unlikely.

As i said, i'm not looking for snowy cold on the 1s of November, i would be happy to see a cold high as that would bring some lovely walking weather,and some frosty nights as we have seen recently, that beats wind and rain hands down in my world.

My dislike of wind and rain applies in Jan right through to Dec

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It’s a comment Sleety and on the GFS and ECM this morning an accurate one, what you saying one can’t comment now?  No one is saying they have nailed the outlook

 

BFTP

I take it you've still got faith that things will improve in a months time, with your main period of interest occurring late December still?

[johnholmes]

I have no idea what will happen much beyond mid November but unless the main anomaly upper air charts have got it very wrong then the next 6-14 days show no sign of any cold spells.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited November 1, 2018 by johnholmes
spelling

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I have no idea what will happen much beyond mid November but unless the main animaly upper air charts have got it very wrong then the next 6-14 days show no sign of any cold spells.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Switch to dry and cold around or just after mid November?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I have no idea what will happen much beyond mid November but unless the main anomaly upper air charts have got it very wrong then the next 6-14 days show no sign of any cold spells.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Agreed John, classic westerly pattern setting up..

[MP-R]

Certainly looking Atlantic driven in the foreseeable but I can’t remember the last time we had an Atlantic spell that lasted more than a fortnight.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Switch to dry and cold around or just after mid November?

I was thinking Exeter expected the Euro high to ridge into Scandy longer term, it might still happen but the models seem to have moved away from that scenario over the last 48 hours..

[Chesil View]

Even 2010 didn't get cold until 20th of November and prior to that it was cyclonic southwesterly winds. The charts runs on November 1st give no indication at all as to how winter overall  will turn Out.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was thinking Exeter expected the Euro high to ridge into Scandy longer term, it might still happen but the models seem to have moved away from that scenario over the last 48 hours..

If you look at the GEFS there are signs of a pressure build, yes  its a southerly wind but that is a mean chart, it looks like it might get far enough North, theres even a stonking greenland high on one member.

[WalsallWeather123]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was thinking Exeter expected the Euro high to ridge into Scandy longer term, it might still happen but the models seem to have moved away from that scenario over the last 48 hours..

Sorry OT, but what/who is Exeter?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Sorry OT, but what/who is Exeter?

Met Office

[weirpig]

Edit my previous comment.   Thats of cause if kasparov was playing and not Mr bean.    Anyway very early in the season.  

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Getting zonal out of the way doesn’t work imo.  We don’t want to get into that rut

 

BFTP

Agree with your first part but you don't apply that logic with the second part.

Getting zonal out of the way doesn't work because the weather does not have a balance then says "right you have had 4 weeks of zonal weather, now some blocking" 

Also zonality doesn't get into a rut, it will last as long as the circumstances of the time allow it. We had dire zonality predictions the previous winter to last and it lasted less than a week! 

To know the length of any spell of weather is like knowing how long is a piece of string.

[MR EXTREMES]

although jma may hold a possibility at the 192hrs string of lower heights plunging down into europe.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Certainly looking Atlantic driven in the foreseeable but I can’t remember the last time we had an Atlantic spell that lasted more than a fortnight.

id say 2014 was a unsettled winter mostly westerly and northwesterly but the northwest and northern parts did have some wintry weather.

[Leo97t]

Not perfect but 6z is much better. That trough is still being ultra slow moving though.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Not perfect but 6z is much better. That trough is still being ultra slow moving though.

Thats the problem when you get a big block poorly orientated - it can lead to very wet weather for the UK as the fronts grind to a halt against the blocking.

But i agree 6Z  looks a bit better..

[coldwinter]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats the problem when you get a big block poorly orientated - it can lead to very wet weather for the UK as the fronts grind to a halt against the blocking.

But i agree 6Z  looks a bit better..

That was what happened in 2009. Noone is looking for a beasterly set up this early no? We want to see blocking to our north east to drive wave activity and then potentially it is there to back west later in the month. New JMA weekles support heights to the NE like the 6z. Plenty of model volatility should be expected with any building if heights over Scandinavia