Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Summer Sun]

8 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Looks great at T+384!

Short term rain, long term gain....hopefully!

Still a lot of mild air flowing through Europe

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Eastern Block still holding firm  with depressions in the Atlantic being driven North.  Then later in the run  High still present  with Atlantic lows diving on a more southerly route.  Still nothing of note  for cold lovers.  Of course still very early.  

There’s definitely something of note for cold lovers considering that block is forcing the jet south, nice building blocks but no cold imminent which is okay! I’d rather have a few weeks transition if it means a long lasting, severe cold spell 

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

There’s definitely something of note for cold lovers considering that block is forcing the jet south, nice building blocks but no cold imminent which is okay! I’d rather have a few weeks transition if it means a long lasting, severe cold spell 

My point was  nothing of note cold wise showing at the moment.  Badly worded sorry.    However as you rightly said  jet does pull south which allows the lows to undercut the British isles.   

[Eskimo]

Couple of colder options from the ensembles. However, most go for high pressure to build near or over the UK leaving us on the much drier, colder, crisp side. 

[northwestsnow]

Well i must confess i was a bit underwhelmed wirh EC 00 det,but Exeter putting a bit more stock in the colder drier high pressure scenario for mid November onwards so thats good news, if you like these conditions of course.

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters this morning are a monumental headache between D10-D15.

    

Clusters 1 and 6 on the cusp of something very cold.

And ... looking through the individual ensembles on weather.us, there are already a few ensemble members with cold pools developing to the east - one member even with uppers below minus 22C into Eastern Europe by 15th November, with the cold on a trajectory towards the UK - a bona fide "Beast From The East" before winter has even begun!!

However, clusters 2 and 4 possibly very mild, though cluster 4 with potential to develop into a cool continental

There's blocking going north somewhere, but where? Is that low really going to hold out to the west (surely not for too long)?

I'd be very suspicious of ensemble means right now. They are masking extreme scenarios!!

[tight isobar]

20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters this morning are a monumental headache between D10-D15.

    

Clusters 1 and 6 on the cusp of something very cold.

And ... looking through the individual ensembles on weather.us, there are already a few ensemble members with cold pools developing to the east - one member even with uppers below minus 22C into Eastern Europe by 15th November, with the cold on a trajectory towards the UK - a bona fide "Beast From The East" before winter has even begun!!

However, clusters 2 and 4 possibly very mild, though cluster 4 with potential to develop into a cool continental

There's blocking going north somewhere, but where? Is that low really going to hold out to the west (surely not for too long)?

I'd be very suspicious of ensemble means right now. They are masking extreme scenarios!!

I agree with your 'extreme' flag ups..

However as you know MWB- The ens will be the overall decipher in mixing out options...

And given the current stats-situs...somethings about to fall off the cliff....

And the nxt 7 days will note 1 extreme or other.

I think my bets are placed well

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P9  

P7 

P11 

P12  

P13  

P15   

 

[Derecho]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Still a lot of mild air flowing through Europe

Bear in mind at this time of the year uppers may not represent surface temperatures so well due to the potential for temperature inversions.

Cut off the humid Atlantic flow, temperatures could struggle. Warm uppers mean may not mean that much if the continent is cooling and temperatures are allowed to drop at night. Though in this run some genuinely warm air does come along for mid November.

Plenty of cold pooling to our east on the OP but you just have to go east of Europe to find it......

Edited October 31, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[northwestsnow]

Just looked at gfs 12z, can see why theres no comments on that!

 

[SLEETY]

Hopefully  ECM shows something more exciting,with sign of colder weather returning again  in line with MET OFFICE update today

GFS  is ZZZZZZZzzzz

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P1  brings back memories of 2010    

P3  

P4 

P7   

P9 

P16  

[tight isobar]

Loving this ecm 12z run...

For highlight of both divergence...and miss -interp.

The momentum- and forcing is a classic...

I'll ellaborate @runs end....

Edited October 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[mb018538]

Gfs 12z is utterly garbage. Let’s hope for better on the ecm!

[Mike Poole]

Liking ECM so far T144:

GFS and FV3 (both same starting conditions) poor tonight.

[ICE COLD]

Even better at T168 @Mike Poole

[weirpig]

What's the ecm up to here  much better run at 168h 

Edited October 31, 2018 by weirpig

[weirpig]

And 192hrs 

Edited October 31, 2018 by weirpig

[Eskimo]

We are stuck in a mild south-westerly flow but it's a step in the right direction. 

Edited October 31, 2018 by PerfectStorm

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216:

The important thing at this stage is the degree of northern blocking, conditions for the UK are not really relevant, we are looking at building conditions for winter weather down the line, not now, it's still October, well for a few hours! And ECM T240 is well blocked:

Edited October 31, 2018 by Mike Poole

[weirpig]

Ecm  is a little like strategically placing you'e  chess pieces before the final attack   blocking prevalent   and at 240h   heights edging towards the pole   like chess patience is key  

[Chesil View]

46 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

We are stuck in a mild south-westerly flow but it's a step in the right direction. 

Indeed we are just as we were a few days before the winter of 1962/63.

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensembles at T240, mean first then spread:

From the 'brain scan' plot of the uncertainty, it seems that there is some consensus on the band north of the UK, the block shown on the op run, and more uncertainty into the polar region, and in our region.

So I infer some support for the op run in this ensemble suite. Be nice to see some support from the GFS and ensembles tomorrow. 

Edited October 31, 2018 by Mike Poole

[inghams85]

2 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Loving this ecm 12z run...

For highlight of both divergence...and miss -interp.

The momentum- and forcing is a classic...

I'll ellaborate @runs end....

The runs come to an end. Care to elaborate?

[damianslaw]

Not saying it will happen, but the ECM evolution today has shades of mid Nov 2010, when we saw the trough anchor on a negative tilt, becoming a cut off low feature, with heights quickly wrapping in behind over the atlantic, and with heights strong to the NE both quickly joined forces, combined with heights building out of russia, and we know what happened next.

Whilst the models are showing the atlantic ruling the roost in the days ahead, it isn't in normal fashion - far from the zonal onslaught at a time when it should be nearing its peak.