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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

Okay Steve, have to admit my knowledge is the Jungfrau region

For anyone wondering when 'their' ski resort is planning to open this ski season this link should help?

I'll pop it in the ski area as well

https://www.ski-lifts.com/blog/european-ski-season-dates-2017-18/

Edited by johnholmes
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

UK on the boundary between the milder air to our west and the colder air heading into mainland Europe right at the end of GFS 12z

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.d57e75afdbb8b470bd22bb3997e69cc7.pnggfsnh-1-384.thumb.png.0c6c659f31f21b7f437de61345ca8f88.png

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted

Due to follow this track for Sat afternoon - evening Ireland W Scotland.

at T102

 

h500slp.png

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
5 hours ago, carinthian said:

A bit of an update regarding the above post. Currently stormbound in the mountains with lots of heavy wet snowfall. The tail end of the weekends carnage low moving away slowly. Longer term, our experts model still going for a extension of the Block westwards again in the next 10 days. Sort of backed up by the latest Ensemble 500 mb mean chart shown below from EU. Will be interesting if GFS starts showing this trend in the next few runs Think UKMO longer term charts  past 144t may be showing this for which we are not privy to.

C

gh500_240.jpg

GFS now showing one huge European block by day 10.

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

How many cut off Azores/Iberian low pressure have we seen this year? It’s uncanny.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

GFS Parallel a decent run with some (albeit messy) trough disruption in the Atlantic and a lovely tilted Scandi high ripping into the pole affecting the strat.

gfsnh-0-300_ivv2.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like the block is pushing the Atlantic back and forcing disruption at 168..

Yes, looks like a solid run backing up its 0z.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Ecm..lining up split/tri vortex into latter frames.....

Pv clearly under immense strain....

 

ECH1-168.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Has to be said, some incredibly warm 850s being pumped up through Germany Poland and Belarus and Ukraine at 168, even stretching into Scandy!!

Wonder if that will change quite abruptly soon after..

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

ECM T240 is beautiful too . 

IMG_2720.PNG

Pretty much a mirror run from the 00z all the way to day 10 . 

Edited by ICE COLD
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Atlantic looks defeated at day 10- i can see a scandy high soonafter with a quick cool down across Europe, not bad at all and could be quite chilly down the line.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Atlantic looks defeated at day 10- i can see a scandy high soonafter with a quick cool down across Europe, not bad at all and could be quite chilly down the line.

Quick cool down across Europe... I really hope so :)

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

P5 gensnh-5-1-384.png gensnh-5-5-384.png

P8 tempresult_lys1.gif

P11 gensnh-11-1-384.png gensnh-11-5-384.png

P20 gensnh-20-5-384.png

ECM tempresult_soq0.gif

GEM gemnh-12-240.png?12

I am liking the direction the models seem to be heading with this scandi high...

 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

It's just seems amazing over the last 7 or 8 months how the models have forecast a breakdown to a long spell off zonal weather and then back tracked to more high pressure domination . Don't get me wrong it's gonna get unsettled this week but it doesn't look like lasting long . And with charts like this appearing on the ECM -IMG_2720.thumb.PNG.921efdaaf1eaa62249703a2f855fd750.PNG

i don't think it will be long until this forum is proper buzzing . Hoping we see a beast like this . IMG_1802.thumb.PNG.e198ae929abc91877ab76bfa25c6a54a.PNGIMG_1803.thumb.PNG.26661fe37819b428eeb938971bdea707.PNG

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted

i  know its  f1 wont happen   but  it looks  nice!!!

gensnh-15-1-384.png

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
23 minutes ago, tinybill said:

i  know its  f1 wont happen   but  it looks  nice!!!

gensnh-15-1-384.png

nice for higher northern members, from experience that chart will not give snow to low levels south, especially 15th Nov

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