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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, however it is a step back from last months forecast, which had colder than average as more likely..

September's update was for a milder than average October to December period, not colder.  If anything, this month's update has moved towards a greater chance of colder than average, stating milder conditions are 'slightly' more probable than colder for November to January, instead of milder conditions are more probable as per last month's update.

Edited by Don
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, Don said:

September's update was for a milder than average October to December period, not colder.  If anything, this month's update has moved towards a greater chance of colder than average, stating milder conditions are 'slightly' more probable than colder for November to January, instead of milder conditions are more probable as per last month's update.

Im sure i read Gavins last update by meto contingency planners favoured below average temps to jan?

Apologies if ive got it wrong.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Don said:

September's update was for a milder than average October to December period, not colder.  If anything, this month's update has moved towards a greater chance of colder than average, stating milder conditions are 'slightly' more probable than colder for November to January, instead of milder conditions are more probable as per last month's update.

Thats what i thought TBH, i think the Met Office should actually just bring back the 3 month outlook to avoid confusion and have it under their 30 day outlook, as opposed to having it as a contingency planners outlook, i think they do this because they are afraid of the media picking up on it, but its better to either have it communicated properly and updated, as this avoids the scenario where the contingency planners outlook clashes with their 30 dayer which seems to happen at times.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

I know its the GFS and we all know its biases but its getting very zonal looking in FI over the last 2 runs.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im sure i read Gavins last update by meto contingency planners favoured below average temps to jan?

Apologies if ive got it wrong.

It was definitely going for milder than average temperatures to December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ond-v2.pdf

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big swing towards blocking on the GEFS.

yes I have been closely monitoring over the past few days and I am keeping my eye on the growing scandi high possibly retrogressing towards Greenland leading us into an easterly (trend seems to be for 2nd week of November) P12 on the 18z is about as close as the GEFS members have got so far. 

tempresult_zlr1.gif tempresult_anb6.gif

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
37 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big swing towards blocking on the GEFS.

Thats positive news Feb-i would happily take a block that allows for continental imported conditions- for starters it will be mainly dry.

Will be interesting to see if this anticyclone can push back the Atlantic -

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Other than the shape of that low west of Ireland, both GFS & ECM very similar now

GFS 

gfsnh-0-192.png?6

ECM 

ECH1-192.GIF?30-12

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Not a bad day 10 ECM cluster, 100% agreement:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018103000_240.

A day later we have 3 options as the models struggle to establish trough vs block scenario:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018103000_264.

This continues right out to 360 hours...looks like day 10 is the crunch point.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
20 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Other than the shape of that low west of Ireland, both GFS & ECM very similar now

GFS 

gfsnh-0-192.png?6

ECM 

ECH1-192.GIF?30-12

They look very different to me..Gfs flatter and less digging south of the jet..

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

They look very different to me..Gfs flatter and less digging south of the jet..

Well they aren't going to be identical at 8 days - historically you'd struggle to find two models that are that far out. Whether correct on the day or not, they have a very similar general pattern.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

I know it's at the very end of the GFS 6z run , but is that the start of a SSW ??? 

IMG_2718.PNG

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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted
8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it's at the very end of the GFS 6z run , but is that the start of a SSW ??? 

IMG_2718.PNG

Didn’t the GFS spot the last one at 300+ hrs ? 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it's at the very end of the GFS 6z run , but is that the start of a SSW ??? 

IMG_2718.PNG

Yep! Quite a strong Strat down warming at the end of the GFS 06z, following on from the previoius two runs but the strongest sign so far, combined with the continued hints from the CFS it’s certainly a good thing to see.

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

GFS ensembles whilst someway East are really coming on board now 192-240..

This appears to be a similar evolution ( again further East ) to March 7th 2013 however the blocking goes more vertical this time

Another few runs & we should start seeing some decent outputs from GFS..

 

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted (edited)
On ‎26‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 10:37, carinthian said:

Bit of a update this morning. The stalled Baroclinic/Fontal zone across Central Europe really causing some concerns over here. A combination of convective and orographic rainfall from deep layered clouds is expected to be huge, especially in the Southern Alps. Some models showing plus 500ml totals by Tuesday morning. Our snowfall model now churning out some results. On the wider pictures 100cm of fresh snowfall showing in the higher parts of the Swiss Valais Region, however the mix of some very warm air advection making the predictions less reliable further east. Presently in resort no snow is forecast but at 2000m  rain to snow % increases . All a bit of a mess really. The crux is how far the Arctic Front/ Airmass from the NW progresses into the Alps before Re -curving. The short time fine mesh model for snow predictions will almost be loaded with hourly information to get the results we need to know in resort. Longer term view from our experts , still show a robust Siberian block holding and possible strengthening with a stalling jet in the location of Western Europe. Charts from ECM ( below) and GFS sort of show that with the European trough meandering in the vicinity of the British Isles. Long way off though. The main concern from over here is the amount of rainfall , flooding expect in the shorter term. Will keep you updated.

accprecip_096-8.jpg-nggid045989-ngg0dyn-1000x600x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.jpg

ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

A bit of an update regarding the above post. Currently stormbound in the mountains with lots of heavy wet snowfall. The tail end of the weekends carnage low moving away slowly. Longer term, our experts model still going for a extension of the Block westwards again in the next 10 days. Sort of backed up by the latest Ensemble 500 mb mean chart shown below from EU. Will be interesting if GFS starts showing this trend in the next few runs Think UKMO longer term charts  past 144t may be showing this for which we are not privy to.

C

gh500_240.jpg

Edited by carinthian
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Not a bad day 10 ECM cluster, 100% agreement:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018103000_240.

A day later we have 3 options as the models struggle to establish trough vs block scenario:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018103000_264.

This continues right out to 360 hours...looks like day 10 is the crunch point.

This is a painstaking scenario, and seems to have cropped up a lot in recent Novembers. The prospect of a Scandi block - and maybe even an omega block - but just not quite aligned enough to bring in the cold. If the main trough stays our to the SW and does not get into Europe, then the gap between very mild southerlies and very cold easterlies will be wafer thin (that's after the mild mush gets mixed out sometime after D10). Trough into Europe, though, and it's get the sledge out time. A very hard month to call!!

Edited by Man With Beard
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It's the 30th of October.

late start to the ski season...

once you get past 15 Nov & theres no snow some of the high / glacier resorts would be saying its a late start-

Edited by Steve Murr
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Not sure where you are referring to a 'late start' for the ski season Steve.

Those resorts with glacier skiing have no problems, most others do not open until end November or early December?

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not sure where you are referring to a 'late start' for the ski season Steve.

Those resorts with glacier skiing have no problems, most others do not open until end November or early December?

I had a glance earlier about 6-8 open midmonth...

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