Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[BlazeStorm]

The amount of precipitation across the country on the GFS this evening is a little apocalyptic. Beginning this Saturday all the way through to the end of the run.

Here comes autumn! Not so sure what the last 2 months were...

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello Jan 1987 a few days later - YES IN EARLY NOVEMBER!!

[SMU]

Yes I posted in the wrong thread-

Awsome split vortex on ECM ! However lets not get carried away...

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes unfortunately the GFS is really zonal, so probably the worst run and best run of the season within a couple of hours.

[mb018538]

GFS 12z is probably the worst run since the spring. Incessant wind and rain. ECM on the other hand is on to a potential winner.....though you’d expect it’s probably an outlier.

[BlazeStorm]

Yes, might well be worth investing in a couple of Kayaks. Noah's arc scenes!

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 12z is probably the worst run since the spring. Incessant wind and rain. ECM on the other hand is on to a potential winner.....though you’d expect it’s probably an outlier.

Not necessarily as @Man With Beard posted earlier, signal for a reawakening of Scandi heights and potentially +ve heights to our north towards mid month, evolution would surely be fitting? Would have been a v busy thread in Dec with that ECM. 

 

[Decemberof2010]

And to add to tat a few GFS ensembles are having an attempt

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

And to add to tat a few GFS ensembles are having an attempt

Diluted version of it evident in the ECM ensemble mean, T240:

Also, the FV3 has a decent effort at it at T240, not quite to the extent of ECM:

Interesting.

Edited October 29, 2018 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Interesting E C, not sure the mean agrees but at that range for sure it would be diluted.

On a more negative note the met office seem to be leaning towards a milder than average Nov- Jan period,Last month they were predicting below average temperature anomaly -

It doesn't sound like Glosea is seeing any SSW, a key ingredient for UK cold..

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Interesting E C, not sure the mean agrees but at that range for sure it would be diluted.

On a more negative note the met office seem to be leaning towards a milder than average Nov- Jan period,Last month they were predicting below average temperature anomaly -

It doesn't sound like Glosea is seeing any SSW, a key ingredient for UK cold..

I think you have that the wrong way round?

link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I think you have that the wrong way round?

link

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

I think he means the Contingency planners forecast 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?page=8&tab=comments#comment-3915895

 

[feb1991blizzard]

That contingency planners forecast isnt tragic actually, its near enough 50/50 on milder or colder, milder just slight odds on, thats usually a tell tale sign of mixed weather, that could easily mask one or two stonking spells, i have never been all that sold on this being a brutal winter overall but i do think there will be some fireworks at times.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That contingency planners forecast isnt tragic actually, its near enough 50/50 on milder or colder, milder just slight odds on, thats usually a tell tale sign of mixed weather, that could easily mask one or two stonking spells, i have never been all that sold on this being a brutal winter overall but i do think there will be some fireworks at times.

Agreed, however it is a step back from last months forecast, which had colder than average as more likely..

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, however it is a step back from last months forecast, which had colder than average as more likely..

I never saw that, 

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed, however it is a step back from last months forecast, which had colder than average as more likely..

Not sure about that, last months covered the period Oct to Dec, it's only 3 months unlike the raw model data.  I recall that it was plumping for a cold October, which incidentally hasn't happened of course, but would skew the average.

I read the latest update as hedging bets as the long range forecast models from the major players differ, but we know this already.  In fact I don't think the contingency planners forecast this month actually tells us anything we didn't know, next months may be more informative.  

Key questions related to the models being, will ECM seasonal stand firm for cold, will Glosea5 come off the fence, and will CFS reflect the supposed strat warming signals reported in some places...?

Edited October 29, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Interesting E C, not sure the mean agrees but at that range for sure it would be diluted.

On a more negative note the met office seem to be leaning towards a milder than average Nov- Jan period,Last month they were predicting below average temperature anomaly -

It doesn't sound like Glosea is seeing any SSW, a key ingredient for UK cold..

Has Glosea ever signalled an SSW in all time we,ve had Access.

[feb1991blizzard]

Signal for blocking returns on EC32.

[WalsallWeather123]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That contingency planners forecast isnt tragic actually, its near enough 50/50 on milder or colder, milder just slight odds on, thats usually a tell tale sign of mixed weather, that could easily mask one or two stonking spells, i have never been all that sold on this being a brutal winter overall but i do think there will be some fireworks at times.

100% agree. November for sure will be wet and windy driven by the atlantic. After that its anyones guess. The problem is people overreacting to one model. Particulalry certian weather twitter accounts who 'dream' about snow. Causes false expectations. The hunt for cold is well into December which is impossible to predict

[Mike Poole]

Vortex looking distinctly swivel-eyed on the GFS at T174 as it nervously awaits whether it is to be dismembered as per the ECM 12z:

T222: It may have a hat on but it sure isn't happy...

Edited October 29, 2018 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

100% agree. November for sure will be wet and windy driven by the atlantic. After that its anyones guess. The problem is people overreacting to one model. Particulalry certian weather twitter accounts who 'dream' about snow. Causes false expectations. The hunt for cold is well into December which is impossible to predict

Mind you having said that, im lead to belive that the met office are saying no severe cold spells likely until February.

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Has Glosea ever signalled an SSW in all time we,ve had Access.

Good question

im not sure.

[Leo97t]

Don't have one iota of trust in met office forecasts of any kind

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good question

im not sure.

GLOSEA4 did see the Jan 2013 SSW from a way out, judging by the 30 dayer updates in December.

[Frost HoIIow]

47 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Has Glosea ever signalled an SSW in all time we,ve had Access.

I could be wrong but I think the SSW earlier this year was only predicted something like 3 weeks beforehand.