Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[WalsallWeather123]

Potential for snow over higher ground up north with this set-up

[Mike Poole]

The GFS 12z is an utter horror show, both for near term weather and implications for longer term.  Near term first, we get a horrid low sat over us next weekend, here T180:

And it lingers, GEM has similar and looks even worse.  But longer term there is a real risk of the strat vortex imprinting itself on our weather down here.  Zonal winds in the strat forecast today to decrease much less than recently:

What  a difference in the strat picture at T384 between the 6z and 12z, 6z first:

And signs of the trop vortex organising at same time on the 12z:

Hopefully an aberration on one run, we'll see.  Apologies if this is a cup half empty post!

 

[northwestsnow]

Yes, disturbed would sum up the next week to 10 days at least.

Not what i wanted to see if i'm honest, that high sat across NW Russia is a real pain, i have seen it year after year, the jet just barrels across the Atlantic leaving us in the firing line, from were i'm sat we need to see the back of this anticyclone asap.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Guy Fawkes - Snowy 5th?

Previous to this next weekend?

Far from stagnant model wise.

Iain.

[Mike Poole]

Well the ECM T192 chart sums everything up for me tonight, a giant question mark drawn over half the globe:

Still better than GFS for longer term prospects at T240:

Edited October 28, 2018 by Mike Poole

[SMU]

ECM goes for a chilly Easterly flow on Firework night-  probable frost in the sheltered west...

[tight isobar]

taking all into cosideration-at present.

the theme remains... a step block into phases -anom-..

just raw model deluded-decipher on the anx...

trop bashing is in early phase with the goings on in the deep pacific...and @the asian side.

but block gain and QBO.. is still favourable..if not morso; as we edge into the northern hemispherical winter phase!.

MJO: Illustarates note the momentum' suring to equate non-normal forcing of both upper happenings...and likely outs!!..

its decent atm if a cold north-western euro winter is your desire..and conflicts..and evolutions will soon begin- unfold....

what at time for interest!!!!!..

blocky blocky blocky....amd yes nao-phase is where you would like it....

given your cold pref.... ..

Edited October 28, 2018 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

taking all into cosideration-at present.

the theme remains... a step block into phases -anom-..

just raw model deluded-decipher on the anx...

trop bashing is in early phase with the goings on in the deep pacific...and @the asian side.

but block gain and QBO.. is still favourable..if not morso; as we edge into the northern hemispherical winter phase!.

MJO: Illustarates note the momentum' suring to equate non-normal forcing of both upper happenings...and likely outs!!..

its decent atm if a cold north-western euro winter is your desire..and conflicts..and evolutions will soon begin- unfold....

what at time for interest!!!!!..

blocky blocky blocky....amd yes nao-phase is where you would like it....

given your cold pref.... ..

'Chucking in'..

This scale up...ens on pick verse-view ..notes....although a minimal- scope the scatterand the mean...are on ready FLIP verse...!!!

Edited October 28, 2018 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

Quite a stunning 240 chart from the ECM this evening

No Polar Vortex. heights building to the North, trough disruption in the Atlantic. Only way forward from that chart is cold weather. The GFS on the face of it isn't so good with low pressure sat over the UK, however!

Virtually no PV lobes over Canada or anywhere, heights across the pole, we could be seeing worse, this is not a normal chart for this time of year. GFS still hinting at polar vortex displacement towards Siberia later in November. 

Shannon entropy will be high in the coming days/weeks but! The broad theme is good going forward, a period of very unsettled weather looking likely for the UK but continued attacks on the Strat from below, no downwelling forecast currently with the disconnect continuing. We're on track for a cold start to winter as far as I'm concerned.

[MR EXTREMES]

Run through all the models and there's shallow heights even the GFS shows this, but it looks like the gfs wants to follow the ECM ideas in the latter frames.

Also JMA is without interest also has a slowing westerly flow.

I reckon mid November could show some potential,

although stormy period to get through first.

In fact some very damaging winds plenty of rain and at times wintry in the mountains of Scotland.

Still very interesting model watching.

 

 

[Man With Beard]

This is miles out but my interest for cold in November starts here

Confused? Well what I notice is a trend to pull the strongest heights west, and not particularly strong heights over Europe.

That kind of set up normally leads to PM rather than TM air further down the line. 

Might be waiting a while for cold this month, though, if that surface high sets up over E Europe. 

[Ross90]

33 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Run through all the models and there's shallow heights even the GFS shows this, but it looks like the gfs wants to follow the ECM ideas in the latter frames.

Also JMA is without interest also has a slowing westerly flow.

I reckon mid November could show some potential,

although stormy period to get through first.

In fact some very damaging winds plenty of rain and at times wintry in the mountains of Scotland.

Still very interesting model watching.

 

 

Damaging winds? All i'm seeing for the first week of November is bog standard gales mostly in the far north other than through Saturday morning where Wales and the midlands might get 50-60mph gusts.Doesn't look like anything overly stormy.

[Allseasons-Si]

Sorry late to the party,been catching up on the X factor

i do like the NH profile on the ecm,the pv very disjointed/contorted

That ecm was a good show this evening but seriously i have no clue as to where we are heading at the moment cos the models are all over the place,there is a big ? on where sub tropical Oscar will be heading and i wouldn't like to call the shots at the moment but what hasn't changed in the last couple of days is the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomoly charts

they still show a strong +ve height anomoly in Scandinavia up into the pole

some of you are probably sick of seing this same pattern but it could be interesting later on.

[Man With Beard]

56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is miles out but my interest for cold in November starts here

Confused? Well what I notice is a trend to pull the strongest heights west, and not particularly strong heights over Europe.

That kind of set up normally leads to PM rather than TM air further down the line. 

Might be waiting a while for cold this month, though, if that surface high sets up over E Europe. 

Mind you... 

that control run cluster has a lot of Scandi High potential with a potential easterly underneath. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Low pressure hits a brick wall and parks itself over the UK

Could be a lot of water falling in some places...very reminiscent of Nov 2009...

Edited October 29, 2018 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

Even by deep FI, that HP just keeps reinvigorating itself as troughing fails to push any further E than the UK

[tinybill]

43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Low pressure hits a brick wall and parks itself over the UK

Could be a lot of water falling in some places...very reminiscent of Nov 2009...

its  looking wet  to very wet over  the uk even  into fantasy world  could be problems coming with flooding  if the rain   keep coming

[mb018538]

Still tough to know where we head into mid November...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

AO will go positive into November, then a whole range of outcomes from positive to negative. Not overly helpful there. We may have to ride out a week or so until the dust settles and we know if we've got any hope of something arriving. Tentative hints in the met long ranger of something more settled into mid november, but it's looking like a busted flush before then.

As it is, we are entering the most unsettled period of weather that we've had for a long time, with the risk of flooding in the west:

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018102900/240-777UK.GIF?29-0

Edited October 29, 2018 by mb018538

[feb1991blizzard]

The usual westward correction on GFS once it gets nearer to the reliable timeframe occurring on the 6z - trough further West at 123 by a few hundred miles.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

GFS 6z tends to keep the jet away to the south of the uk, but more importantly doesn’t look as strong as it did on the whole in the 0z when exiting the US/Newfoundland. Subsequently this leaves a lot more high pressure around (or at least weaker troughs) with a much greater chance of colder weather, especially in the North. 

Only one run of course!! 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

GFS 6z tends to keep the jet away to the south of the uk, but more importantly doesn’t look as strong as it did on the whole in the 0z when exiting the US/Newfoundland. Subsequently this leaves a lot more high pressure around (or at least weaker troughs) with a much greater chance of colder weather, especially in the North. 

Only one run of course!! 

Ensemble mean at 168 has the jet further south as well than the 0z run.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

6 hours ago, tinybill said:

its  looking wet  to very wet over  the uk even  into fantasy world  could be problems coming with flooding  if the rain   keep coming

Ah that's not good news at all as only 3 weeks ago we had some bad flooding in South Wales from a stalled rainband which rapidly increased some of the river levels

[Man With Beard]

Tantilising!

Blocking to the east definitely possible by mid-month ... but possibly too far south for a truly cold easterly to set up. Last night's clusters were better in that respect.

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Tantilising!

Blocking to the east definitely possible by mid-month ... but possibly too far south for a truly cold easterly to set up. Last night's clusters were better in that respect.

For sure that post is backed up by Exeter , massive uncertainty as to whether the Russian anticyclone will be able to push far enough westwards..

[Mike Poole]

I was actually thinking the output on the 12s a bit meh tonight from the earlier  models until we got to this from the ECM at T216:

Then this at T240:

Shredded vortex!  Really something to watch on future runs!

Edited October 29, 2018 by Mike Poole