Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[E17boy]

Anyone from the BIrmingham area there are reports of snow falling. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

 

Looking at the Euro 0z i am relatively certain that the Euro will not undercut and we'd probably see the high pushed south east at days 11-13. As fantastic as that chart looks in isolation you can see from the day 9 chart that the low is headed north east and will only try sink the block. 

The better setup was from the GFS0z which saw a similar low but moving south east from days 9 to 10..

 

True but the high could have already done some long term damage by then, it might go zonal for a few days but then we could see a repeat, what you need here is a high SPP value - self perpetuating pattern index, if those ridges into the pole from the scandi sector keep repeating then eventually the vortex will go pop, only problem is sharper ridges are better and preferably the nearer to the 0 degrees meridian, the better for us, and also the more times it happens prior to any easterly, the colder the uppers will be when we do get the Easterly.

Edited October 27, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Guest Delete Me]

8 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Anyone from the BIrmingham area there are reports of snow falling. 

Wrong forum!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

Anyone from the BIrmingham area there are reports of snow falling. 

I'm from just north of Birmingham. Yes there was quite a heavy snow shower here earlier around 10pm. It didn't settle but was great to see snowfall this early in the 'extended Winter season'. I'm hoping it's a sign for better yet further down the line. After all the last times either here or elsewhere had snow in October to my knowledge was in 2008 and 2012 and both were followed by Winters with good snow events. The north east looks as though it did very well today though with actual lying snow as well. Go and check out the 'North East and far north of England thread', there's some great photos been posted from members there .

[Polar Maritime]

Let's please keep this thread to Model Discussion 'Hunt for cold'. There are regional threads open and a snow report thread.

Thanks.

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z can essentially be summed up as messy, no less than four low pressure centers (and associated fronts) in and around the UK with a hefty thermal gradient. 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

That's much better for the half term holidays  there is a risk of heavier rain by next weekend but on the whole it's looking much drier on GFS than previously shown especially for western areas where earlier on this week 100mm+ showed firstly for ROI then west Wales and then NW Scotland 

[ITSY]

My first post of the season, predictably caused by procrastination as much as sheer intrigue. The signs to me look promising for four reasons (though I also accept there are plenty of other factors to consider and these are not a holistic view of the overall setup). 

1) the AO and NAO. Both are forecast to hover around neutral over the coming weeks - with the NAO on its closest attempt at a flatline for several months. While I haven’t gone through the analogues that suggests a more settled and blocked picture than we would usually see in November. (See pic 1). 

2) the Stratosphere is set to weaken against its average over November and early December, with a marked decrease in mean zonal wind speeds. This would also suggest that an early SSW is possible and that the polar regions are more liable to succumb to WAA and blocking than would usually be the case. (See pic 2, taken from Thursdays GEFS 12z suite)

3) For those who have looked through the analogues, you’ll know that a weak El Niño can have a positive bearing on early season cold in Europe. This isn’t an exact science but that is indeed the picture we’re now in, loosely positive El Niño territory. (Below +1C across the ENSO basin)

4) Finally, averages and postage stamps. Everyone has commented on this already but even today’s 06Z show cause for promise. Look at the postage stamps (pic 3) - about two thirds of members show height rises over either N Europe, Scandinavia, or the N Atlantic, as have recent ECM, GEM and JMA outputs. (See in pic 4 the particularly and impressively orientated ECMWF output this morning)

None of the above is to say that anything is guaranteed - the QBO will go westerly in November for instance and tropical storm Oscar could blow the models upside down for a few days at least. Furthermore, In my experience over the last 12 years, mid autumn models always show times of tantalising possibility as they begin adjusting to PV territory after the summer months. Nonetheless, there are good reasons for optimism. The Meto are alluding to colder conditions in longer range text (which granted, could mean anything) and Brum has already seen snow flakes before the end of October. All good signs as we move ahead. Onward team! 

 

Edited October 27, 2018 by ITSY

[daz_4]

The only thing we will be hunting for the foreseeable future here in Europe is extreme warmth. I'm expecting a lot of records to be broken in the next two weeks. And we all know how stubborn these situations are lately. 

Edited October 27, 2018 by daz_4

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

The only thing we will be hunting for foreseeable future here in Europe is extreme warmth. I'm expecting a lot of records to be broken in the next two weeks. And we all know how stubborn these situations are lately. 

For a couple of weeks but then as that frigid air comes round the back of the high, you will see some record cold/

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P2 & P3 try to get the scandi - Greenland heights linking, P7, P15 and P20 also keen on higher pressure over scandi,  charts like these begin to move into the reliable time frame. 

                

[Summer Sun]

A quick reminder whilst it's quiet in here the clocks go back 1 hour overnight which means the models will update 1 hour earlier from Sunday's 00z run's

GFS 12z will start from around 15:30 - Updates every 6 hours

ECM 12z  18:00 to 19:00 - Updates every 12 hours

Edited October 27, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Skullzrulerz]

18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A quick reminder whilst it's quiet in here the clocks go back 1 hour overnight which means the models will update 1 hour earlier from Sunday's 00z run's

GFS 12z will start from around 15:30 - Updates every 6 hours

ECM 12z  18:00 to 19:00 - Updates every 12 hours

Much appreciated thank you

[Leo97t]

In terms of thinking for long term prospects the 12z is great with a huge Siberia high and cold pool developing over Russia. Ridiculous amounts of waa taking place. Lovely Aleutian low and Great UK trough disruption leading to low pressure over Europe eventually.  

[SMU]

Evening All-

The GFS has gone straight from its strength- ( A northerly ) to its known weakness - A building Scandi block-

The expectation is at this stage the GFs will tend to have an eastward bias at 192 by about 500-1000 miles to the East- Ensembles are gradually starting to get on board...

As mentioned in my NH pattern thread - week 2 is the plan for potential next round of cold...

[ICE COLD]

ECM T192 = possible Northerly incoming . 

EDIT - not quite but at least it won't be really mild . It would feel quite cool . 

Edited October 27, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Always a red]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A quick reminder whilst it's quiet in here the clocks go back 1 hour overnight which means the models will update 1 hour earlier from Sunday's 00z run's

GFS 12z will start from around 15:30 - Updates every 6 hours

ECM 12z  18:00 to 19:00 - Updates every 12 hours

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

For those attending firework displays next Saturday, early indications show it being very mild even at 8pm with temperatures widely into the teens away from Scotland & Ireland where it would be colder and a bonfire would be handy

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A quick reminder whilst it's quiet in here the clocks go back 1 hour overnight which means the models will update 1 hour earlier from Sunday's 00z run's

GFS 12z will start from around 15:30 - Updates every 6 hours

ECM 12z  18:00 to 19:00 - Updates every 12 hours

Isn't the EC 19:00 to 18:00? SS usually right, but I remember snow season 6pm EC runs, FI part close to 7

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Isn't the EC 19:00 to 18:00? SS usually right, but I remember snow season 6pm EC runs, FI part close to 7

BST it updates 7 to 8

GMT it updates 6 to 7

I put the full time frame it runs for which may have confused you slightly?

Edited October 27, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Spah1]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

BST it updates 7 to 8

GMT it updates 6 to 7

I put the full time frame it runs for which may have confused you slightly?

Information on where to find model output and what time of day they update.

Global Forecasting System (GFS)

 GFS Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0330-0445 | 06Z 0930-1045 | 12Z 1530-1645 | 18Z 2130-2245 (GMT)

00Z 0430-0545 | 06Z 1030-1145 | 12Z 1630-1745 | 18Z 2230-2345 (BST)

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

 GEFS Viewer

 (+/- 10 mins)

00Z 0550 | 06Z 1150 | 12Z 1750 | 18Z 2350 (GMT)

00Z 0650 | 06Z 1250 | 12Z 1850 | 18Z 0050 (BST)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

 ECMWF Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (GMT)

00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)

 UKMO Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0500-0600 | 12Z 1700-1800 (GMT)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office FAX (FAX)

 FAX Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 1030 | 12Z 2230 (GMT)

00Z 1130 | 12Z 2330 (BST)

Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)

 Netweather Extra Only

 (approximate)

00Z 0430 | 06Z 1030 | 12Z 1630 | 18Z 2230 (GMT)

00Z 0530 | 12Z 1130 | 12Z 1730 | 18Z 2330 (BST)

 

I believe these are still right 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Been working all day, just catching up on the model output...

The see-saw continues and, IMO, it's looking 50/50 as to whether we trigger an early season SSW in the (much) further outlook. Looks very possible though based on some model run FI trends.

[northwestsnow]

Looks very flat this morning,certainly looks like a lively Atlantic for the time being and pretty horrid weekend to be having a bonfire..

[booferking]

Not very blocked looking later next week keeping a wee eye on this bunny boiler.

Edited October 28, 2018 by booferking

[carinthian]

On ‎27‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 09:46, carinthian said:

Looking at the very latest fax chart ,think the cold front has now reached its limit into the Northern Alps and a clash of very different airmass now taking place. Cyclonic circulation now in formation over NW Italy along the stalled Baroclinic /Frontal zone. Raining in many parts of the Alpine Regions with some snow in the Northwest Alps including SW Bavaria at about 1400m, further east and south freezing level still above 2000m. Huge amounts of precipitation expected over the next 24 to 36 hours. Keep you updated with developments over here. Not a great day to be about in the mountains.

C

Horrible day in the Eastern Alps. Heavy rain and low cloud. The extreme Di Polar conditions bringing snow at elevation to the Western Alp and here further east, the Sirocco wind bringing very warm air. Currently 6c at 2000m.  Longer term , staying very mild in Central and Eastern Europe. Mostly below average temps across UK for much of this week. Next weeks change to a deep cyclonic spell ( ex hurricane Oscar ) with milder air for next weekend not yet nailed as upper wind data remains rather sparse in the deep tropics. So best not look further than 5 days . UKMO Met Office charts probably best charts to follow to see any changes to take place rather than look at the main models in the 5 to 7 day time span

Edited October 28, 2018 by carinthian