Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Rocheydub]

Oh good lord. It’s only the end of October and the bickering is starting already. It’s going to be a long winter for some here!!!

[Seasonal Trim]

Bloody hell, I got a bit excited when I saw there had been a few posts in here. Then it all turned out to be nonsense Coldy/Mildy crap. Can you all do this through PMs please! 

[abruzzi spur]

10 minutes ago, coldie said:

You know what he means i'm not sure why you feel it's necessary to have a sly dig at the way he spelt it, this thread was made to discuss any cold potential not to talk about mild weather, if you want to talk about any future mild weather then use the other thread.

Don't do sly digs.  Grown up challenge, yep.  Hope this thread doesn't become another toy throwing special.  Until otherwise I'll use the thread I fancy thanks as I'm sure you will.

Edited October 25, 2018 by abruzzi spur

[Paul]

Lets be clear here. Digging at people isn't on, regardless of thread.

But as has been said - just because this a hunt for cold thread, it doesn't mean that realism goes out the window, so if there isn't much/any cold to talk about on the output, then it's perfectly reasonable to talk about what is showing. Otherwise this just becomes a fantasy/ramping cold thread, and not model discussion. 

So yes, hunt for cold - that's the point of the thread, but lets not pretend other weather types don't or can't exist.

All that said though, if you want a more balanced look at the models without the cold slant, then the general thread is the place to go to.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Paul

[northwestsnow]

EC mean shows the Atlantic in charge with the high pushed back southwards into Europe.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean shows the Atlantic in charge with the high pushed back southwards into Europe.

 

Its not tragic though, its still a pseudo meridional Jet, not sure what D10-15 shows.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its not tragic though, its still a pseudo meridional Jet, not sure what D10-15 shows.

No not tragic at all, just the mean showing the Low to be the dominant player longer term,probably be cooler WNW winds later on , after that, who knows..

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

No not tragic at all, just the mean showing the Low to be the dominant player longer term,probably be cooler WNW winds later on , after that, who knows..

IM hoping the trough doesn't get past the meridian, rather than a brief PM attack, I hope the more extreme 6z op verifies with a sharp stonikng big ridge ripping clean through the pole, but would settle for the less extreme version of at least maintaining / re-building the scandi high.

[Derecho]

Looks like the cold that briefly builds over Scandi gets swept away by a low moving north from Italy carrying warmer air. Warmer air coming up against a cold block is always a drawn out affair when its west v east but when its south v north the cold can break down quickly it seems. Just look at the beast from the east at the start of March!

If there was a much larger colder pool the cold could have advanced further west but we may have to wait for that a bit longer!

Nevertheless the outlook is a cyclonic one early in the week but one which does not have the typical west-east movement of Atlantic low pressure systems. Not a typical jet pattern across the North Atlantic but no sign of serious cold yet. ECM at T240 may well be shaping up for a northerly further down the line...

[feb1991blizzard]

18z already looking sharper with trough more stretched and negatively tilted at 128.

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 is awful, zonality until a very weak blocking signal at week 6 (which is usually as useful as a pin in a durex factory).

[JeffC]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is awful, zonality until a very weak blocking signal at week 6 (which is usually as useful as a pin in a durex factory).

Thank goodness!

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is awful, zonality until a very weak blocking signal at week 6 (which is usually as useful as a pin in a durex factory).

Indeed ...... the drift away from an early start to winter on the model evident on Tuesday and now confirmed (even more so) on this latest run. Whilst many will quite rightly say that beyond week 3 this model is of little use, up until this week, the 46 was syncing well with the seasonal ......that would be the message I would be taking from the past two runs ..... next week sees the next seasonal output and those expecting a front loaded season will be watching expectantly, given what has gone before on the model ........

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Plenty of wet weather showing on the last few runs Looks like I’ll be revising the November CET prediction upwards!

[mb018538]

EC ensembles fairly flat last night too:



It's early doors though. If there is some vortex disturbance it's unlikely to show up until after mid November anyway....which would be even better timewise.

[MP-R]

Let's not forget how unsettled and stormy the first half of November 2010 was and how exceptionally so November 2009 was.  We just need to keep an eye on blocking in the right areas. The latter for example, despite being very turbulent in the UK, exhibited northern blocking almost throughout.

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

If there is some vortex disturbance it's unlikely to show up until after mid November anyway....which would be even better timewise.

Yeah, it’s probably better to have something like that happen later, especially when the setups that a beaten up Vortex could lead to, is more likely to deliver more in the way of sleet and snow at that time of year. Providing the Low and High Pressure systems don’t end up in the wrong places for cold and wintry weather over the U.K. (As @MP-R says, having any blocking in the correct places). 

The models, such as 00 GFS, show that High Pressure will be taking its morning stretch in the Atlantic today:

And the same tomorrow: 

A chilly next few days in the Northerly to Northerly Easterly winds with a mix of showers in places - rain, hail, graupel, with sleet and snow over high ground. ?

[fujita5]

11 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Let's not forget how unsettled and stormy the first half of November 2010 was and how exceptionally so November 2009 was.  We just need to keep an eye on blocking in the right areas. The latter for example, despite being very turbulent in the UK, exhibited northern blocking almost throughout.

Indeed.  Northern blocking can send the jet to a favourable position to advect cold into the UK, but it can also be wrongly positioned/aligned and leave us in 'meh' territory.  It's having the building blocks in place that's important.

It doesn't look like we're in for a raging, circular PV throughout the troposphere and stratosphere for the first part of the winter so anything could happen down the line.

[Summer Sun]

Chilly over the next few days with some rain especially around the coasts and a bit of hill snow temps begin to moderate around mid next week as winds begin to come in from the milder Atlantic

Animation of the next week or so  https://bit.ly/2qccbgR

Edited October 26, 2018 by Summer Sun

[Timmytour]

When hunting for something, it's as important to be told where it definitely isn't as well as where it could be!

Nothing specific I see in the models leads me to believe that we are heading for a cold stretch this winter, but the continuing presence of lots of high pressure systems give me cause for optimism.

As long as these are not anchored to the usual positions that provide us with the kind of average winters we are to well acquainted with,(and I don't believe they are) I think the chances of them eventually situating themselves in favourable positions is higher than usual, to give us at least a few shots of proper winter if not a sustained period of it. 

A model run now that doesn't show signs of deep cold is not a problem.  If we look to the winter Gods of 62/63 and 1947, we would see that while the former had a November that carried signs of what was to come, the latter was preceded by a November that was part very warm and part wet and stormy. In fact, during November 1946, no air frost was recorded anywhere in the country!

In the end what will be will be. Nobody knows for sure and everybody's capable of a lucky guess. I'm hopeful, I'm optimistic but then again I'm seem to be every year about this time!

 

[MR EXTREMES]

11 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looks like the cold that briefly builds over Scandi gets swept away by a low moving north from Italy carrying warmer air. Warmer air coming up against a cold block is always a drawn out affair when its west v east but when its south v north the cold can break down quickly it seems. Just look at the beast from the east at the start of March!

If there was a much larger colder pool the cold could have advanced further west but we may have to wait for that a bit longer!

Nevertheless the outlook is a cyclonic one early in the week but one which does not have the typical west-east movement of Atlantic low pressure systems. Not a typical jet pattern across the North Atlantic but no sign of serious cold yet. ECM at T240 may well be shaping up for a northerly further down the line...

Makes sense certainly not directly west to east,more of a southerly track to our weather. yes unsettled yes wet at times windy after this cold snap.

And the vortex is ramping up.

But no one knows if it's going to be a cold or mild winter we have this problem every year.

I'm sure at some point over the next few months pattern will change and at some point cold.

Patients the weather will always out smart human and computer data.

[SMU]

Ive updated November thoughts - especially around the PV & the proposed zonal wind speed -

 

[carinthian]

On ‎25‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 08:47, carinthian said:

Morning all. Crazy weather in the Alps yesterday. Northern alps had plenty of moisture and snowfall cover at 2300m. However, not far from here as the crow flies , 30c was recorded yesterday in the Northern Italian Alps with extreme Fohn creating blow torch conditions with single digit dew points. The weekend forecast is not precise regarding snowfall but SW Alps more favoured at the moment. Plenty to watch as the NW Med Cyclone develops along the strong baroclinic zone over the weekend bringing some really high rainfall totals with some projections as high as 500mm. Where rain turns to snow at height is still going to be the main forecast problem . Tomorrow morning our excellent short range fine mesh model should start to provide some results for us here in resort. However, the inputs looks very messy in this frontal zone . GFS snow picture for the start of next week show favoured locations for some accumulations and possibly first snow cover of the season in Stockholm.

C

Bit of a update this morning. The stalled Baroclinic/Fontal zone across Central Europe really causing some concerns over here. A combination of convective and orographic rainfall from deep layered clouds is expected to be huge, especially in the Southern Alps. Some models showing plus 500ml totals by Tuesday morning. Our snowfall model now churning out some results. On the wider pictures 100cm of fresh snowfall showing in the higher parts of the Swiss Valais Region, however the mix of some very warm air advection making the predictions less reliable further east. Presently in resort no snow is forecast but at 2000m  rain to snow % increases . All a bit of a mess really. The crux is how far the Arctic Front/ Airmass from the NW progresses into the Alps before Re -curving. The short time fine mesh model for snow predictions will almost be loaded with hourly information to get the results we need to know in resort. Longer term view from our experts , still show a robust Siberian block holding and possible strengthening with a stalling jet in the location of Western Europe. Charts from ECM ( below) and GFS sort of show that with the European trough meandering in the vicinity of the British Isles. Long way off though. The main concern from over here is the amount of rainfall , flooding expect in the shorter term. Will keep you updated.

[Chesil View]

The current Northerly blast has certainly woken up this forum. However in my honest opinion looking for a block to build to the east now

as appeared likely model wise a day or so back was always a fruitless exercise.  To have a block in place as we go into November and then

hope for it to stay there and influence our weather thoughout the winter  seems  the ultimate in hopecasting.  Better surely, as others have suggested,

to have a bit of unsettled even stormy weather in the first half of November( as in both 2009 and 2010) and then look for our current friendly strat/trop disconnect

or possibly an early SSW ( As mooted elsewhere) to do the business for us as we head into winter proper.  For now we don't know how things will pan out winterwise.

We are however lucky enough to have the likes of Mr Murr, Lorenzo, Chiono, Tamara and hopefully at some point GP and others to give us some guidance on how the various drivers are acting as we go forward.

Surely if last winter taught us anything it is that in our push button,must have it now, order it today get it tomorrow world, patience is still a virtue than can be rewarded

many fold when to comes to Winter weather.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Taking some of the GEFS members anomaly charts for the 300h mark still plenty showing higher pressure around scandi and some getting it into the Arctic or across towards Greenland, perhaps a more unsettled spell of weather then hopefully get blocking better aligned later in November for a shot at some colder weather.

    

ECM overnight run also hinted at a similar pattern