Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

This is why I don't like people directly linking images from sites. The user should save the image to their device and then upload it to the forum. By doing that, it will show the correct image even when looking at a year or two in the future. Weather sites with model images keep the same links but the images will change, Netweather will probably cache the thumbnail for a period of time, but the direct link will show the updated image.

Yes,r- you dont need to save it on meteociel - you just click the disc - it will be archived - however i dont know how to save images and all that -either way its a shame you cant see images years later - been reading threads of SE 2009 and NW 2010 Jan, i cant find the Dec 18th 2010 one but thats another story.

[feb1991blizzard]

Good GFS 6z, look at the size of those area of 500mb heights to the east - dont worry about surface highs - the 500mb pattern will affect the lower strat - the perfect pattern at this time of year, one for @CreweCold

Edited October 25, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[syed2878]

Let us not get too disappointed with the current output folks because there is a hurricane according to the Met Office live stream on Tuesday gone that in it self  could throw a spanner into the works  let us see next week what  model shows next week and then discuss the bonfire weekend   it is after all the 25th of October 

[feb1991blizzard]

Oh yes sir!

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes sir!

now that would be a place to start the winter countdown from !!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

now that would be a place to start the winter countdown from !!!!

Yes, not just because of the split either, only one place that cold associated with that PV segment would go from there, it would load up the continent with frigid air early on Nick?

EDIT : not sure why I called you Nick??

Edited October 25, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, not just because of the split either, only one place that cold associated with that PV segment would go from there, it would load up the continent with frigid air early on Nick?

EDIT : not sure why I called you Nick??

because its my name ?  seems a good reason 

Edited October 25, 2018 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

because its my name  ………………..

Thought it was - don't know how i knew though!!   -   Anyway the ensemble mean is, as you would expect not quite as impressive but it does depict a sharper ridge than the 0z suite, lets hope the eps follow suit.

Edited October 25, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Yarmy]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh yes sir!

Parallel having none of it though, and is the (ahem) polar opposite with a +AO/+NAO:

\

Some talk elsewhere that the FV3 will take over from its sibling in Jan 19. Don't know what will happen to the GEFS.

 

[northwestsnow]

I think evidence is now mounting that things are going to turn gradually more unsettled through next week.

Doesn't look mild though as winds are more WNW as opposed to anything from the south west so i'd take a stab at cool and unsettled..

[WalsallWeather123]

ECM 12z and GFS 18z failing to build heights to NE. Not good if you want cold

[Summer Sun]

The 2nd half of next week could be very different to the 1st as milder air sweeps across Europe

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ECM 12z and GFS 18z failing to build heights to NE. Not good if you want cold

The 18z isn't out until 10:30 this evening,maybe you meant the 12z.

[northwestsnow]

EC pumping up some very warm air into Poland,Scandinavia  and the Baltics as we head into next weekend, all courtesy of the high stretching across Central Europe.

 

[WalsallWeather123]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z isn't out until 10:30 this evening,maybe you meant the 12z.

Yes I meant 18z. Its awfully quiet here which tells you everything you need to know. The cold snap on saturday also downgraded. Some areas may even get double figures and people were talking about a repeat of October 2018 lol

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Yes I meant 18z. Its awfully quiet here which tells you everything you need to know. The cold snap on saturday also downgraded. Some areas may even get double figures and people were talking about a repeat of October 2018 lol

How can we have a repeat of October 2018? The original version has a few days to run!

How this particular cold snap panned out was never the issue, the main point is continued blocking patterns - to the NE after the weekend and this still shows on the models.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

Just now, WalsallWeather123 said:

Yes I meant 18z. Its awfully quiet here which tells you everything you need to know. The cold snap on saturday also downgraded. Some areas may even get double figures and people were talking about a repeat of October 2018 lol

Not to shore what u were exspecting this weekend , but it was never gonna be freezing by day and blizzards . It's always been a cold few days and snow on high ground up north . It will feel pretty cold considering it's been quite mild/warm for ages . 

[ICE COLD]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The 2nd half of next week could be very different to the 1st as milder air sweeps across Europe

Thought this was the hunt for cold discussion ?? Not the summer sun mild mush south Westlys discussion. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Yes I meant 18z. Its awfully quiet here which tells you everything you need to know. The cold snap on saturday also downgraded. Some areas may even get double figures and people were talking about a repeat of October 2018 lol

I'm not sure the Northerly has been downgraded ? IMO the models have done an excellent job picking out this mid Atlantic high, and the weekend looks probably a good 3 or 4 degrees below the norm for late October.

EC keeps the jet further north than GFS so looks a little less unsettled, so as someone who dislikes rain intensely , i'm glad of that.

Ii wonder if some early November records could be under threat across parts of Central Europe though? Not entirely sure what they are, or what sort of temps EC op would produce, low 20s perhaps..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Forget the NE heights holding at the moment going forward.  Look for reload of a northerly around or just after Guy Fawkes.  ECM full 12z run has the idea

20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Thought this was the hunt for cold discussion ?? Not the summer sun mild mush south Westlys discussion. 

At the 10 day mark that LP to our NW diving south, we should anticipate short term wild swings

 

BFTP

[WalsallWeather123]

40 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

How can we have a repeat of October 2018? The original version has a few days to run!

How this particular cold snap panned out was never the issue, the main point is continued blocking patterns - to the NE after the weekend and this still shows on the models.

Have you looked at the recent ECM run. No attempt of blocking to NE at all

[abruzzi spur]

33 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Thought this was the hunt for cold discussion ?? Not the summer sun mild mush south Westlys discussion. 

Not sure what a south Westly is but are you saying that this thread is not open to those that might like looking for cold but are realistic enough to say when they think it might not be happening?  Or are we all required to stand in line in party uniform and sing the praises of the dear cold leaders?

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Have you looked at the recent ECM run. No attempt of blocking to NE at all

It waxes and wanes to our ene 

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Have you looked at the recent ECM run. No attempt of blocking to NE at all

I said across the models, here GFS, FV3, GEM, UKMO and ECM at T144, not much point looking beyond that timeframe at the moment.

Not blocking that will necessarily affect UK weather in terms of cold but keep up pressure on the PV.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Mike Poole

[coldie]

1 minute ago, abruzzi spur said:

Not sure what a south Westly is but are you saying that this thread is not open to those that might like looking for cold but are realistic enough to say when they think it might not be happening?  Or are we all required to stand in line in party uniform and sing the praises of the dear cold leaders?

You know what he means i'm not sure why you feel it's necessary to have a sly dig at the way he spelt it, this thread was made to discuss any cold potential not to talk about mild weather, if you want to talk about any future mild weather then use the other thread.