Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is looking good at 144 with more WAA into the north(black arrow),more trough disruption(red arrow),better height's to our NE and the Genoa low more to the east(brown circle).

but i look no further as it's a mess,but saying that the 144 hr chart is miles different to the 12z anyway so a lot to be resolve still before then.

Yes - by 192 it actually looks worse than the 12! - as Steve says - where shall i distribute this energy - i know - everywhere!

[northwestsnow]

18Z looks pretty awful for bonfire night weekend!!

Atlantic wind and rain- YUK!!

On a brighter note this coming weekend looks beautiful with cold northerly winds to do away with those horrid wasps!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - by 192 it actually looks worse than the 12! - as Steve says - where shall i distribute this energy - i know - everywhere!

It looked good at the start then i think it got something in it's eye lol

but like i said,look no further(as we all know)FL is less than 144

we get the northerly and easterly of sorts,what follows is crytal ball time...

me:-mystic meg what is on the table?

mystic meg:-a cup of tea,bird seed or left over bits from your daughter's tea

me:-what should we be looking at this winter?

mystic meg:-maybe getting out and about instead of looking at your monitor 24/7

me:-why?

mystic meg:-because that is why you have got dry eye syndrome

me:- and what causes that?

mystic meg:-by concentrating too much and looking at the monitor

me:-i am going to keep on looking at the monitor cos the synoptics are looking good

mystic meg:-you will get synoptic eye syndrome

me:-

[Paul_1978]

7 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

18Z looks pretty awful for bonfire night weekend!!

Atlantic wind and rain- YUK!!

On a brighter note this coming weekend looks beautiful with cold northerly winds to do away with those horrid wasps!!!

Bonfire Night is T+300..... far too far away to be worrrying about wind and rain yet. 

[SLEETY]

bit quite in here this morning,models not showing cold lingering on any more or something? 

 

Fl remember starts at about t plus144 not at plus 300 or whatever.

[karlos1983]

All looks a bit messy post +144 this morning.

ECM and UKMO both in good agreement at D6, GFS not far off. 

Extended colder spell following the Northerly this weekend, looking very much the outside bet this morning.

[carinthian]

On ‎22‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 09:30, carinthian said:

Wow, amazing synoptics for the end of October. This crazy year continues to produce extreme conditons . Temps of 10c or more below average next weekend over much of Western Europe, with extreme values over Iberia. On the other scale, plus 10c above temps over parts of Eastern Europe and Central Europe for a time. Forecasting snow to rain and the other way round is going to be very difficult as the very strong baroclinic zone formulates across Europe. The map below shows unusual October snow cover forecast for parts of the UK . We in the Alps will have a nightmare scenario with heavy rainfall values forecast of over 60mm  that may or may not change to snowfall . At this stage , the Western Alpine regions look prone to be covered in the Arctic mass and risk of some heavy snowfall. However, here in the Eastern Alps , borderline. Its going to be fun next weekend from a weather forecasting prospective and we over here will have to rely on our short range fine mesh model to forecast snow with height nearer the time. However, I think we can all expect some unusual weather, just has 2018 has already delivered to many. Will get back later with thoughts from our experts over here.

C

Ok its 2 days on from the last report. Had a chat this morning with our guys and yes, its a nightmare scenario for Alpine forecasting this weekend and into early part next week. The UKMO fax chart at 84t shows the problem being the Arctic front returning as a warm front. Generally, re-curving fronts bring warmer air mass to the lower layers , whilst higher up the air mass remains unchanged for a longer period ( from its original source Pm/Am in this case ) Also, added complication is the exact limit of the cold front . Snow forecasting with height is going to be very borderline. A two model scenario was used with a frontal boundary difference of 100miles , approx. based on the fax chart below and have produced extreme results . One model showing 100cm of snowfall and the other almost zero. So there lies the problem for our mountain forecasters. Again, short range fine mesh model will not become effective until 48 hours before arrival of the front from the NW. Beyond weekend , looks a forecasting dilemma over the Alpine region as extreme air mass battle ground evolves. The view from over here is for a build of a cold the Scandinavian High ( see 528 dam area forecast chart below ). Where we go from here? Basically the answers is Don't know as is the short term snow forecast for the Alpine Region. All very exciting from a forecasting point of view.

[Newberryone]

On ‎23‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 09:40, Raythan said:

Didn’t we have this during summer , where there was a forecast breakdown and the models were actually under estimating any block to the east ! 

Not too sure there's very much evidence of any block to the east to dispute my musings/thoughts on the latter frames of the Ecm with the overnight run continuing in a similar vein. Certainly doesn't scream reload potential of a wintry nature, in fact it seems to paint an all too familiar picture of heights to the south possibly coming back into play.  

[Chesil View]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

All looks a bit messy post +144 this morning.

ECM and UKMO both in good agreement at D6, GFS not far off. 

Extended colder spell following the Northerly this weekend, looking very much the outside bet this morning.

Never mind Karlos1983. An extended colder spell at the beginning of November is not really what we,re after surely, an extended colder spell in the run up to Xmas or anytime thereafter is far more likely to deliver the goods 

[northwestsnow]

As others have said, all a bit of a mess after the northerly with no real dominant pattern at this juncture.

On a brighter note ive posted meteo France winter update in the winter thread and its a sight for coldies eyes!!

[masheeuk]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Never mind Karlos1983. An extended colder spell at the beginning of November is not really what we,re after surely, an extended colder spell in the run up to Xmas or anytime thereafter is far more likely to deliver the goods 

I must disagree, I always look forward to a very cold guy fawkes night where you can see your own breath.

[masheeuk]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As others have said, all a bit of a mess after the northerly with no real dominant pattern at this juncture.

On a brighter note ive posted meteo France winter update in the winter thread and its a sight for coldies eyes!!

Could you please say where you have posted that forecast.
thank you

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, masheeuk said:

Could you please say where you have posted that forecast.
thank you

Yes the winter 2018/19 thread

PS I dont speak French but the graphics say it all, easterlies!!

Edited October 24, 2018 by northwestsnow

[MR EXTREMES]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As others have said, all a bit of a mess after the northerly with no real dominant pattern at this juncture.

On a brighter note ive posted meteo France winter update in the winter thread and its a sight for coldies eyes!!

What is interesting is no pattern is sustained.

And lows hitting a wall and diving south so eventually in time maybe the vortex will continue to be disrupted.

So far things are looking like something is brewing.

But this time round not likely to cause winter wonderland.

But if we can continue with disrupted vortex then confidence grows, and a winter wonderland could pop up mid November into December.

Jet stream is certainly on a better southerly track so far.

Will this year be the start of colder run of winters last solar minimum delivered nicely.

All very nice to see these charts recently at least it's not boring.

So cold rain wind precipitation above average I'd thought temps below going back to normal slightly above in any southerly or southwest flow.

But I'd thought some serious rainfall totals especially in the south and southwest.

Edited October 24, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[karlos1983]

12 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Never mind Karlos1983. An extended colder spell at the beginning of November is not really what we,re after surely, an extended colder spell in the run up to Xmas or anytime thereafter is far more likely to deliver the goods 

My comments weren’t anything to do with personal wants/wishes. Years of of hoping the weather will do what you want has resulted in extreme model fatigue. Just saying what I see

First cold plunge is just around the corner, so I’m looking forward to that

After that, the hunt goes on

[Chesil View]

25 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My comments weren’t anything to do with personal wants/wishes. Years of of hoping the weather will do what you want has resulted in extreme model fatigue. Just saying what I see

First cold plunge is just around the corner, so I’m looking forward to that

After that, the hunt goes on

Indeed Karlos I,m with you on that. The hunt goes on.

[Paul_1978]

42 minutes ago, masheeuk said:

Could you please say where you have posted that forecast.
thank you

 

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters continue to favour anomalous heights somewhere to our north for early November (clusters 1/2, 69% of ensembles)

 

[Skullzrulerz]

Compared to the last few days I was expecting to be reading a few pages but it seems it's quite quiet 

What happens next after this short northly is lot more uncertain compared to the last few days

Regardless of what ever happened it's certainly is exciting stuff

[feb1991blizzard]

It looks like they have finished the ECM eps in graph form on weathercast, so we will be reliant on bluearmy's general overview but if we want a more detailed breakdown, it looks like we will have to troll through the whole lot on weather.us.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It looks like they have finished the ECM eps in graph form on weathercast, so we will be reliant on bluearmy's general overview but if we want a more detailed breakdown, it looks like we will have to troll through the whole lot on weather.us.

Lets hope our weather is close to the dutch conditions then …….. the individual members in the 10/15 day period are not visible anywhere else ??? 

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Lets hope our weather is close to the dutch conditions then …….. the individual members in the 10/15 day period are not visible anywhere else ??? 

In graph form for a quick overview, i cant find any - not the ones like the GEFS on meteociel where you can just click on a uk area and the graph appears, theres obviously the clusters which are useful also.

EDIT : individual members are available on weather.us.

Edited October 24, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It looks like they have finished the ECM eps in graph form on weathercast, so we will be reliant on bluearmy's general overview but if we want a more detailed breakdown, it looks like we will have to troll through the whole lot on weather.us.

I noticed that, what a pain in the cushion sitter!

weatehronline isn’t ideal, but will have to do  

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I noticed that, what a pain in the cushion sitter!

weatehronline isn’t ideal, but will have to do  

Never knew that - i only bother with weatheronline for the short range model, apart from PPN type charts, i dont like their graphics, thanks anyway though - usefull enough though that graph, 850s probably more relevant for the type of setups we are all chasing anyway.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEM tries to get higher pressure pushing into Greenland at the end of the run  

NAVGEM still my pick of the bunch with great placement of the scandi high 

Some of today's runs struggling with where to go after the northerly / easterly, hopefully the blocking falls into place for us to receive colder weather but I think the 2nd best option would be something close to what P16 shows with the high over us and colder weather going into Europe cooling down the continent just in case we can get another easterly down the line, still lots of chopping and changing to come in the models before we get a better idea of where we are headed.