Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I often don't need to comment given how good other people's posts are but I can't help but be very interested at some of the evolutions shown by the models into November - slider central! If there's a time of the year when it's probably most difficult to get these stellar charts, it's now until Christmas when the Atlantic should be in full on mode. If only these charts were showing up in mid winter, we could be on the cusp of a notable cold and perhaps snowy spell. I guess, being November, cold rain/sleet will be the order for most away from higher ground but it's good news for the continent cooling down.

Given the right setup mid-November onwards can often produce, the end of Nov 2010 was a good indicator of that.

For example if the later stages of the GFS were to come off, it wouldn’t take long for truely cold, snowfall producing air to arrive to our shores as Europe can call rapidly. 

Granted it’d take something exceptional but, we’re seeing exceptional charts at the moment.

[Purga]

Well time to come out of summer hibernation maybe?

Whatever happens in FI it's looking cool / cold for the foreseeable.

[Summer Sun]

The 7-day trend from the 06z has a small area of orange over ROI elsewhere it remains below average

 

[Met4Cast]

I know these snow depth charts are drastically over the top but they give an indication of where snow could fall. As ever, Northern Hills are favoured, the snow line comes quite low across Wales and SW England for a time so any heavier showers could turn sleety/wet snow across the hills even here. 

Nice first taste of winter whatever happens, it’ll feel bloomin’ cold compared to what we’ve gotten used to.

[MR EXTREMES]

-4.39 latest qbo so just easterly can we get atmosphere to play ball until we reach full westerly qbo.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

and 

-18.67 for the u50 index anomaly http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

[coldwinter]

19 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

-4.39 latest qbo so just easterly can we get atmosphere to play ball until we reach full westerly qbo.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

and 

-18.67 for the u50 index anomaly http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by coldwinter

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Well the good news is it looks almost certain now there'll be a taste of Winter this weekend with below average temperatures.

However I'm keeping a close eye on that low to the west next week as in terms of rainfall that looks a bit of a troublemaker with a stalled rainband. Currently the heaviest of the rain is over S & SE Ireland but a shift of 100 miles or so east could bring another deluge to Wales just a fortnight after the flooding here and also with next week being half term many people will be out and about. It appears to be similar ie most of the rain falling in 48 hours 

Edited October 23, 2018 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Snowy L]

If we establish the block I think fears of it being too early will fade quickly. That Greenland High in the 06z GFS for example is only 10 days before the cold spell of 2010 started. Scandinavia looks like it will cool down quite a bit during the next week or so too.

[karlos1983]

23 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

If we establish the block I think fears of it being too early will fade quickly. That Greenland High in the 06z GFS for example is only 10 days before the cold spell of 2010 started. Scandinavia looks like it will cool down quite a bit during the next week or so too.

The biggest fear is probably the ground temps... It would be like  being a kid on Christmas day, running down stairs and seeing the presents under the Tree, only for them to quickly disappear right in front of your eyes. Most upsetting 

Current Status:

Edited October 23, 2018 by karlos1983

[Purga]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

The biggest fear is probably the ground temps... It would be like  being a kid on Christmas day, running down and seeing the presents, only for them to quickly disappear right in front of your eyes. Most upsetting 

Current Status:

isn't that just reflective of the current very warm spell? A couple of frosts and cold days would soon cool the ground temps down.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

isn't that just reflective of the current very warm spell? A couple of frosts and cold days would soon cool the ground temps down.

I think we will need more than a couple of frosts and cold days  but then you probably know that.. Sun still relatively high. I'm not trying to wiz on anyone's fireworks here, just to be clear. But snow don't like warm ground, it's not conducive to sticking!

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I think we will need more than a couple of frosts and cold days  but then you probably know that.. Sun still relatively high. I'm not trying to wiz on anyone's fireworks here, just to be clear. But snow don't like warm ground, it's not conducive to sticking!

i had 3 inchs of snow on Sept 11 that stuck around for weeks ..even though it had been in the mid 20s a few days before and came of a warm summer..with temps hitting 40c just 4 weeks previous to that

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i had 3 inchs of snow on Sept 11 that stuck around for weeks ..even though it had been in the mid 20s a few days before and came of a warm summer..with temps hitting 40c just 4 weeks previous to that

In Chelmsford of Alberta.... You probably don't need to dig to far down to get very cold soil temperatures all year round in Canada

Don't want to derail the thread, so i'll leave it there.

Edited October 23, 2018 by karlos1983

[Snowy L]

29 minutes ago, Purga said:

isn't that just reflective of the current very warm spell? A couple of frosts and cold days would soon cool the ground temps down.

Those ground temps are actually lower than our average temperature of October so far (CET is 12.4c so far), so not worried at all about ground temps. Land is awful at retaining heat so it really would only take a couple cold days to make them fine.

Edited October 23, 2018 by Snowy L

[tight isobar]

35 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Those ground temps are actually lower than our average temperature of October so far (CET is 12.4c so far), so not worried at all about ground temps. Land is awful at retaining heat so it really would only take a couple cold days to make them fine.

Ground cooling via evaporation..is much quicker than the warming of.

Flat underfeet surface temps-will quickly cool @amicable level...

Anyway we continue to monitor events/evolutions for the first notable season incur...

And with snaps like this coming ever further into frame...its wellworth shouting about !!!

Some eye popping stuff as we crawl into early winter...

Edited October 23, 2018 by tight isobar

[summer blizzard]

Ground temperatures are a valid concern but too simple. What we really need to know is what soil moisture profiles are like across northern europe and Scandinavia in addition to the UK. Those will dictate how much modification may occur.

 

The drier the better whether currently warm or not.

[karlos1983]

UKMO at D6 is certainly of interest.

With decent uppers lurking, or will we be tapping into the warmer 850’s.... 

Shame we can’t see just one more day

Edited October 23, 2018 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Ground cooling via evaporation..is much quicker than the warming of.

Flat underfeet surface temps-will quickly cool @amicable level...

Anyway we continue to monitor events/evolutions for the first notable season incur...

And with snaps like this coming ever further into frame...its wellworth shouting about !!!

Some eye popping stuff as we crawl into early winter...

WOW - Just looked at the 6z for the first time -that is what is positively known as a stonking Northern hemispheric pattern wrt smashing the polar Vortex and leaving long lasting imprints in history for the rest of the winter.

[SMU]

UKMO 144 is great synoptically but probably just the wrong side of where we need to be for snow

500 Thickness area highlighted below

850 thickness probs just north of 130 DAM

[SMU]

Also GFS moving away from the warm 850s pushing back into Europe to be replaced by colder air

Also watch this shortwave over the next few runs as it may well carve back SW reinforcing the cold-

2018 the new era of shortwave 'enhancers' instead of spoilers...

[tight isobar]

Now this is interesting..

Major russian pen waa punching..

And the desired effect of amping-of cooling to the north east/scandi..

As i alluded previous..this will be the compact for upper air decrease..as we gain..

And spillage to the mid-upper latts occur..

Like a broken record....things are decidedly eye opening !!!

Edited October 23, 2018 by tight isobar

[summer blizzard]

Madness for the time of year, breathtaking.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

3 hours ago, Snowy L said:

If we establish the block I think fears of it being too early will fade quickly. That Greenland High in the 06z GFS for example is only 10 days before the cold spell of 2010 started. Scandinavia looks like it will cool down quite a bit during the next week or so too.

Classic example of get the pattern set in, and the cold will follow. It may seem too early but it’s happened before so it can happen again!

[Ali1977]

A northerly direct from deepest Arctic, then this Beasterly with a low in it - I imagine if this was Dec we’d have some serious snow in the SE. 

FI now of interest, especially if it removes any form of PV from the Canadian side again - trends etc...

[summer blizzard]

The pressure pattern above the high suggests another attempt to ridge into Greenland.