Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Tim Bland]

Tuesday not without interest on the 00z GFS. If the cold air from the east can undercut that approaching front ? Would be more likely to deliver snow if it were Dec or Jan and the uppers / dew points were a tad lower, so it will be very boarderline. 

[Derecho]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

The first half of Nov 10 was among the mildest on record, i think people's memories are getting skewed.

And, your point is?.... I said 2010 and 1878 were examples of blocked months followed by cold winters, in spite of the milder start it still had a very strong -NAO, as did November 1995 and the winter that followed it wasn't too bad either..., just because we are having some blocked synoptics now doesn't mean we won't later.

The ECM this morning does bear a lot of similarities to November 1995 with its forecast pattern, a slack jet, low pressure to our south but still managing to bring up warm air from the Med!



GFS also going for a slack but cyclonic pattern with some residual colder air still lingering over parts of the UK. 

[karlos1983]

I think history tells us that if it were to pan out like the below is showing, It’s likely that the undercutting low would be further SW.

also if we can get the flow off the continent, uppers aren’t *as important anyway.

Good times

[The Beast From The East]

1 hour ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Wow GFS ramping up any one order cold start to winter 

It's a Steve murr special 

ECM not without interest either.

If you remember we went straight from winter and cold into summer with hot weather so maybe a straight switch back again to the cold looking at what the models are showing ..... ☺

[Newberryone]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

And, your point is?.... I said 2010 and 1878 were examples of blocked months followed by cold winters, in spite of the milder start it still had a very strong -NAO, as did November 1995 and the winter that followed it wasn't too bad either..., just because we are having some blocked synoptics now doesn't mean we won't later.

The ECM this morning does bear a lot of similarities to November 1995 with its forecast pattern, a slack jet, low pressure to our south but still managing to bring up warm air from the Med!



GFS also going for a slack but cyclonic pattern with some residual colder air still lingering over parts of the UK. 

From a cold weather perspective one can't help but feel a tad deflated by the latter stages of the last two set of runs from the Ecm, both showing little potential for further reloads.

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, Newberryone said:

From a cold weather perspective one can't help but feel a tad deflated by the latter stages of the last two set of runs from the Ecm, both showing little potential for further reloads.

Didn’t we have this during summer , where there was a forecast breakdown and the models were actually under estimating any block to the east ! 

[summer blizzard]

28 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

And, your point is?.... I said 2010 and 1878 were examples of blocked months followed by cold winters, in spite of the milder start it still had a very strong -NAO, as did November 1995 and the winter that followed it wasn't too bad either..., just because we are having some blocked synoptics now doesn't mean we won't later.

The ECM this morning does bear a lot of similarities to November 1995 with its forecast pattern, a slack jet, low pressure to our south but still managing to bring up warm air from the Med!



GFS also going for a slack but cyclonic pattern with some residual colder air still lingering over parts of the UK. 

My point is not that we can't get cold down the line (i'm not weighing into the debate because i consider it stupid), simply that people referencing Nov 10 as a cold month should probably not be comparing it to now. It was an extremely cold final third in an otherwise mild month. 

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

And, your point is?.... I said 2010 and 1878 were examples of blocked months followed by cold winters, in spite of the milder start it still had a very strong -NAO, as did November 1995 and the winter that followed it wasn't too bad either..., just because we are having some blocked synoptics now doesn't mean we won't later.

The ECM this morning does bear a lot of similarities to November 1995 with its forecast pattern, a slack jet, low pressure to our south but still managing to bring up warm air from the Med!



GFS also going for a slack but cyclonic pattern with some residual colder air still lingering over parts of the UK. 

I think it might be a fundamental part of the human psyche, QS: in the natural world, in which we (and our languages) evolved, most things are in limited supply and over-indulgence today does imply a shortage tomorrow...? Why else would our intuition/gut instinct tell us that, after throwing four straight sixes, our chance of throwing a fifth is somehow reduced - when we all know that it isn't?

I don't know about you, but I always have an internal battle going on: my gut says one thing (we can use-up cold synoptics too quickly) my head says another (oh no we can't)...

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Monday looking colder still - direct N but nothing in the way of PPN.

 

[Ice Day]

Not any huge changes for this weekend, Friday night into Saturday is looking very cold when adding in the effects of the wind.  

 

850's are between -4 and -6 for most of the country, which I suspect are a tad too high for settling snow at low levels, but mountain areas further north should have a cracking few days. 

Talking of the upper temps, the 850 0c line is over the whole UK for 5 days starting Friday, so temperatures on the ground will certainly be low (single digits in most places) making it feel wintry whatever is falling from the sky.  Time to dig out the hats and gloves!  

[MR EXTREMES]

44 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

If you remember we went straight from winter and cold into summer with hot weather so maybe a straight switch back again to the cold looking at what the models are showing ..... ☺

And why not.

solar minimum and el nino.

Weakened and vortex on the Siberian side.

[northwestsnow]

GFS6Z showing some heavy and persistent rain across Ireland early next week as the low stalls against the scandy high- at this timeframe that could change a few hundred miles so the potential for some very wet weather next week.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS6Z showing some heavy and persistent rain across Ireland early next week as the low stalls against the scandy high- at this timeframe that could change a few hundred miles so the potential for some very wet weather next week.

That same band was over eastern england yesterday its now being pushed back further and further west!!

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters are getting more and more interested in maintaining northern blocking into November - see clusters 1 and 4, which account for 57% of the ensembles.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters are getting more and more interested in maintaining northern blocking into November - see clusters 1 and 4, which account for 57% of the ensembles.

Very nice, still getting to grips a bit with these, but would that suggest in cluster 1, not the best orientation of heights near Scandinavia? South easterlies ?

TIA 

cluster 4 looks interesting!

K

[northwestsnow]

GFS6z certainly sniffing around at high latitude blocking continuing into November.

A monumental Greenland block into FI ..

Edited October 23, 2018 by northwestsnow

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My goodnight, GFS FI goes into full on reverse zonality! What on earth is going on!! 

If only. A scenario like that would allow for the continent to plunge into a freeze pretty rapidly.

I’m liking these signals! 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS6z certainly sniffing around at high latitude blocking continuing into November.

A monumental Greenland block into FI ..

I know it is in FL but WOW!!!

one route from there and it's from the NE.

[Met4Cast]

GFS has gone for a Carlsberg esq Greenland High out in FI there

[nick sussex]

Interesting how nearer the time the bloated troughing to the west is disrupting more with stronger height rises to the ne.

Preferably the energy needs to be transferred more se rather than south towards Iberia . Overall though some good overnight changes for coldies .

Still more changes to come and we’ve seen from past set ups that the models tend to be less than convincing when you’re dealing with trough disruption .

[karlos1983]

Oh dear.... naughty GFS 06z, @nick sussex I hope you’ve got the stockpile of medication ready and the hotline on standby for members, it could be a long season with the GFS churning out charts like this already 

What a sight for sore eyes that is  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GFS 6z with a near perfect blocking setup (nice to see what the GEFS members have been showing starting to appear on the main run) flashbacks to 2010, heights shooting up over Greenland and the cold over our side ready to flood in from the NE  

   

Edited October 23, 2018 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[ICE COLD]

OMG . WHAT A BLOODY CHART. 

Cold air about to flood in from the North East . Shame its 16 days away . But saying that them ECM clusters look good for northern blocking too . 

[MR EXTREMES]

30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters are getting more and more interested in maintaining northern blocking into November - see clusters 1 and 4, which account for 57% of the ensembles.

 

interesting jet in tatters and gefs charts are good moving on.

[MP-R]

I often don't need to comment given how good other people's posts are but I can't help but be very interested at some of the evolutions shown by the models into November - slider central! If there's a time of the year when it's probably most difficult to get these stellar charts, it's now until Christmas when the Atlantic should be in full on mode. If only these charts were showing up in mid winter, we could be on the cusp of a notable cold and perhaps snowy spell. I guess, being November, cold rain/sleet will be the order for most away from higher ground but it's good news for the continent cooling down.