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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

The 'noted' ...long draw north african exactions...are just the notion of a gaining and squeeze of model alignment.

The overall pic- paints a different story.. and the decipher of inter/raw model analysis corrects this...

I'll leave you with these...and tmoz a realise of overall raw..and intangled synop's!!!

Edit:..this all b4 the 18z jog out and likely refine the options !!!

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The 'noted' ...long draw north african exactions...are just the notion of a gaining and squeeze of model alignment.

The overall pic- paints a different story.. and the decipher of inter/raw model analysis corrects this...

I'll leave you with these...and tmoz a realise of overall raw..and intangled synop's!!!

MT8_London_ens (1).png

In English? You may want to check the date of those ensembles ?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

In English? You may want to check the date of those ensembles ?

Yup....i realise.there the 18z..from the run previous!..

So i highlighted/posted for tonights compare.....18z...pattern/diverse.

PS:.. if you 'cannot' decipher/understand that...-in PLAIN ENGLISH-.... then i concern about your divulge!!!!!!

 

Chucking in the 500 geo-pots.. and they are of align....'in a sort' !!!

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_204.jpg

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The 'noted' ...long draw north african exactions...are just the notion of a gaining and squeeze of model alignment.

The overall pic- paints a different story.. and the decipher of inter/raw model analysis corrects this...

I'll leave you with these...and tmoz a realise of overall raw..and intangled synop's!!!

Edit:..this all b4 the 18z jog out and likely refine the options !!!

MT8_London_ens (1).png

Model alignment being squeezed even by the notion of ensembles can often be a good thing.. synops are very intagled today I suspect because of how raw they are, often they’re closer to as medium rare. 

Having said the above, the 18z I suspect will continue the theme and hopefully we see the signal for the Scandi high strengthen within the ensembles.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs
24 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yup....i realise.there the 18z..from the run previous!..

So i highlighted/posted for tonights compare.....18z...pattern/diverse.

That ensemble chart is 5 days old matey 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

...and finally these little fella's maybe paying a visit this weekend to enjoy what's left of our summer barbeque's

polar_bear_fire.thumb.jpg.27761f3e79fe381e38786104226af23d.jpg

oh wait!!!,the ecm is showing  a spanish plume later next week,com'on guy's we are off.....

zlQaidalxUqc3GLYx9KIPw2.thumb.gif.42fbacdcf1dc0b92422b833eb98e347a.gif

 

It does look like on those NOAA anomaly charts a Scandinavian ridge developing, marked out by those positive anomalies and the big bend in the upper flow in that area.

A great post I have to say. Provided a lot of chuckles! May just be one of the funniest I’ve stumbled across in the thread this year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It does look like on those NOAA anomaly charts a Scandinavian ridge developing, marked out by those positive anomalies and the big bend in the upper flow in that area.

A great post I have to say. Provided a lot of chuckles! May just be one of the funniest I’ve stumbled across in the thread this year. 

Thanks

i do like to add a little touch of humour as well as debating the models to enlighten the mood and i am sure others will apreciate that too

not to derail the thread now,the 18z is churning out and i will like to see the 18z to pick up it's heels and follow that ecm:D

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
38 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

That ensemble chart is 5 days old matey 

..5 days as a guide..

Then you take the raw outs-into contention...

And always ..ALWAYS refer to ens-as a guidence to any operational ! .

Then you can have a reference to all mentioned.

And again...watch 4 compare via suite movement...and compare...

To which i will highlight..

With open model synop..its about exaction of suite referal...

Without mention of deeper overiding factors...

That i WILL be sporting..as we evolve.

Lets 'await the ensembles'...

Mjo orbit...phasing ..also resembles..the line of thought!!

 

 

Do we need to get to spaghetti 'plates' ??!!

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Heavy frontal snow coming up on GFS.

Maybe an illustration or two? 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Maybe an illustration or two? 

It pivoted, i thought it was going to be a slow-stall-situ-slider

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Heavy frontal snow coming up on GFS.

The uk gfs 18z shows the front pivoting and futher west compared with the 12z

174-779UK.thumb.GIF.1a6b69c6100379fe6109d9bd754cab33.GIF180-779UK.thumb.GIF.a7d5f6e05224202d64f0691072865919.GIF

i was more inclined to the heights building behind the trough up into Greenland and N Scandinavia forcing more pressure on the trough further south

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.0e1aa48eac766af490e7f92eb2944c8d.png

yep!,keep on pushing further south:D

gfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.2ace539b6997996b19c24d555885421d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

upgrades to the "slider" seem to be stepping forward bit by bit as each model run roles out - let's see where we are in a day or so, could be very interesting

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

We are 6 - 8 weeks too early - but after a rather Nina-esque fall in GLAAM we are now seeing a steep rise in the calculated overall tendency

spike.thumb.png.b8172d270653af1f5a680fa69a1a53bb.png

This early season mid atlantic ridge scenario produced off the back of the fall

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_1.png

should be replaced by a much more meridional pattern conducive to the high lat blocks that we so crave in winter. EPS shows this well at 7 days' range

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png

Where after this? It's still a bit early to get excited to be honest - charts like this in late December would offer snowfall to parts of lowland Britain but right now it is too early. But with the MJO passing through phases 8-1 I'd take a stab at the rather blocked pattern continuing through to mid November.

Edited by Catacol
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
57 minutes ago, andymusic said:

upgrades to the "slider" seem to be stepping forward bit by bit as each model run roles out - let's see where we are in a day or so, could be very interesting

Yes although uppers would need to be a fair bit colder.

Nevertheless the 18z ensembles are looking substantially colder, many more have undercutting lows with the -5C isotherm over the UK on Tuesday  still.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

confused math GIF by CBC

Back to the model output and the GFS is not backing down from the very cold uppers, may see some lower lying areas see some snow/wintry showers. Meteociel precpitation forecasts suggest so!

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions Modele GFS - Carte prévisions Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Perhaps Wales and Scotland could do pretty well? Maybe a bit of sleet in some of the east coast showers?

GFSOPEU18_153_2.png

Impressive early cold pool over Scandi on Monday.

A few people saying they are worried about getting cold synoptics now. The weather does not have a budget, the weather gods don't think 'Ah I used up 6 easterlies in November so I won't use any more for the winter'. The weather will do whatever it wants and all we can look at are long range signals for an inkling and hope they persist into the short range. Enjoy the ride. Look at November 2010 or November 1878 for blocked Novembers leading to very good winters.

The first half of Nov 10 was among the mildest on record, i think people's memories are getting skewed.

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

morning  all  all i say  after Wednesday  the weather   is looking  interesting   to say  the least  to well   in to deep fantasy world

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Wow GFS ramping up any one order cold start to winter 1034734948_gfs-0-192(2).thumb.png.7383ff12fb818f9cdc2b610fee382142.png

It's a Steve murr special 

ECM not without interest either.

ECM1-168.thumb.gif.15d63d4b3aa75741cb001f97f0f1d65a.gif

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

GFS 00z bit of a downgrade - still N flow established but less in the way of ppn.

Best bet Scotland  - Cheviots  -  Northumbria  - N Pennines Friday PM

h500slp.thumb.png.48853530d7ae608996f35abc481f0466.png

Wales risk increase Saturday?

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.b7da936cf4e1a06ae0e3d7510e2ce119.png

Iain

 

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

GFS 00z bit of a downgrade - still N flow established but less in the way of ppn.

Best bet Scotland  - Cheviots  -  Northumbria  - N Pennines Friday PM

h500slp.thumb.png.48853530d7ae608996f35abc481f0466.png

Wales risk increase Saturday?

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.b7da936cf4e1a06ae0e3d7510e2ce119.png

Iain

 

Wouldn't worry too much about the GFS PPN charts, they're useless at the best of times.

The APERGE is just coming into range of Saturday morning and shows a stream of showers across Northern Scotland and down the Eastern and Western coasts.

Scotland.thumb.jpg.cf0616f73e9d760f9e7ab4f89ae316f2.jpg

Turning wintry across Scotland, probably some hail and thunder mixed in along coastal areas. I suspect Saturday night into Sunday will hold the greatest potential for a wider snowfall risk

 

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