Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

How exactly is a ssw triggered? 

Probably the wrong thread for it, but essentially you want to see long wave blocking in certain locales of the NH which will help drive 'waves' into the stratosphere which will in turn slow down the mean westerly flow in the strat and promote warming. There's a lot more to it but I suggest checking out the SSW thread where Chiono gives a very good low down of all things strat.

Early winter warmings or 'Canadian Warmings' are a good thing to have occur as, in theory, it helps keep the N Atlantic (Canada and Greenland) sector free of a deep, entrenched polar vortex.

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

How exactly is a ssw triggered? 

Hi Leo,

There’s a great blog by Nick Finnis (Nick F) here, where he goes into detail as to how a SSW is triggered: 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8730-sudden-stratospheric-warming-this-weekend-but-what-is-it-how-will-it-affect-our-weather 

We also have a Learners area of the forum where you may be able to find out further information regarding SSW’s. Feel free to ask any questions in their, but we’re always happy to help. Cheers.

Edit: Just noticed CreweCold’s post above. Great explanation and advice he gives too (didn’t realise we still had an actual Stratospheric Warming thread, whoopsy lol)  

Edited October 21, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding little extra

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P7, P10, P17, P19 all go the scandi high route with a couple trying to get it retrogressing to Greenland

     

ICON model -

  

NAVGEM -

  

NCMRWF -

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by lorenzo
sorting layout ( OCD)

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12z shows a much colder spell towards the end of next week with arctic winds bringing a wintry cocktail of weather down across the uk..really excited about our first cold blast of the season!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean + postage stamps tell a wintry story..!!

[Summer Sun]

7-day trend remains below average for the UK some parts of eastern and south eastern Europe could be unusally warm

12z

00z

 

[booferking]

Ecm is without interest at 120hr high getting right into Greenland lets see were this leads further down the line.

[northwestsnow]

ECM digging the jet much further south than GFS!!

[SMU]

ECM huge Scandi block & a possibly big wintry event @168

[northwestsnow]

Have a feeling we may see a scandy high onEC..

[northwestsnow]

EC looks a very cold run as we head past 120hrs-

The 192 chart would see low single maxima and sub zero minma IMO.

Edited October 21, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Bartlett High]

Isn't this all happening a little too early in the season/

[Cheshire Freeze]

If only it was December!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Isn't this all happening a little too early in the season/

One could argue its too soon but on the other hand some of the ECM will produce dry cold autumn weather which is much more preferable to mild Atlantic wind and rain.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Isn't this all happening a little too early in the season/

I don't look at it that way..I say grab it whenever you can..what we are seeing is a first chance of snow in october since 2008!..enjoy the model rollercoaster in the months ahead.☺

Edited October 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Isn't this all happening a little too early in the season/

Well in a way yes and no at least it's happening now Something interesting to watch

[Rayth]

4 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Isn't this all happening a little too early in the season/

Least it is happening,  and we aren’t aboard a zonal train to misery ! Good idea for a thread this , we didn’t have a long hunt 

[northwestsnow]

No zonal train on EC tonight, jet well to the south of the UK..

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well we're seeing two opposing scenarios pan out into FI this afternoon-

GFS wants to restrengthen the vortex day 10+ with the AO going positive 

Whereas I think the ECM will maintain the -AO/disorganised vortex for longer, judging by the day 9 chart

Going forward, I don't particularly want to see the vortex get its act together ala GFS 12z FI as we're going to be heavily reliant on the trop to bail us out this winter. With a descending +QBO we don't want to be seeing a trop-strat connect. If/when that happens (without modification to the strat profile) it's game over IMO as SSW events in +QBO and low solar years are as rare as hen's teeth!

The next 4-5 weeks will tell us a LOT about how this winter is likely to unfold.

I think me and @feb1991blizzard share similar views.

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by CreweCold

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Nice to see the ECM jumping on board with heights rising over scandi and also lows diving south  

[northwestsnow]

And ECM end with a 'cold' high ! Raising the chance of a cold dry start to November..

[danthetan]

I don't agree with this too early in the season talk, I will take the synoptics being modelled currently all day long. I get that deep cold is hard to achieve at this time of the year but getting early cold can cool the landmass and SST's which all helps further down the line. Also if you can get a reload the cold air is already in situ.

[Frosty.]

That's a prolonged cold spell that develops on the Ecm 12z with the cold becoming entrenched..hope it's right!..very early taste of winter incoming!

Edited October 21, 2018 by Frosty.

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, danthetan said:

I don't agree with this too early in the season talk, I will take the synoptics being modelled currently all day long. I get that deep cold is hard to achieve at this time of the year but getting early cold can cool the landmass and SST's which all helps further down the line. Also if you can get a reload the cold air is already in situ.

Agreed - Not to mention the cold, crisp clear autumn days, I'd take that any day over mild Atlantic, grey dross.

Some stunning synoptics from the ECM this evening and if it were showing in mid-winter we would be overjoyed, it is October so excitement needs to be honed in a little perhaps but setups like this are good for putting pressure on the vortex in the right places.

Going forward, if we continue to see patterns like this developing then the first part of winter is going to be very, very interesting.

P.S. It's a little too early in the season to be dealing with the "game over for winter" brigade.

Edited October 21, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

P.S. It's a little too early in the season to be dealing with the "game over for winter" brigade.

Indeed, but I've not seen any such posts?

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by CreweCold