Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[coldie]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I couldn't agree more PS...In this part of the world, the best we'll from that'd be about 8C with some cold rain. Or, should we be really lucky, some driving drizzle.

Lovely!

If you don't like it head over to the other thread? There's plenty of potential to wet the coldies appetites, anyway id rather cold rain than that mild crap we've been used to the past few years at this time of year.

Edited October 20, 2018 by coldie

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I was just comparing where we are on today's date chart wise to some previous years and a pretty close match currently to 2015, also not a million miles away from 1962, an interesting close match between 1962 and 1947 is the tropical feature off the coast of America and also an interesting thing in 2010 there was a northerly (all these years apart from 2010 feature a high close to or over the UK). Probably means nothing but interesting nonetheless.

2018   2015  1962  1947  2010 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates next weekend feeling wintry with frosts, ice and for some of us... S N O W..love the word snow

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Its 100% a toppler - it was never going to be anything else-

However there my be enough residual heights to the NNE to steer the jet SE which is exactly what the ECM tries to do-

Poor use of terminology on my part. I meant not your usual toppler where the high topples into Denmark and allows in the mild Atlantic nothingness. 

[SMU]

57 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Poor use of terminology on my part. I meant not your usual toppler where the high topples into Denmark and allows in the mild Atlantic nothingness. 

Yes no probs

If things pan out as usual the residual heights could be underestimated...

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes no probs

If things pan out as usual the residual heights could be underestimated...

Any more.improvements steve on the 18z gfs in regards to the northerly or still same as 12!!

[Rocheydub]

40 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any more.improvements steve on the 18z gfs in regards to the northerly or still same as 12!!

With 3122 posts here? You ask that?

Edited October 20, 2018 by Rocheydub

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GFS 18z gets the northerly in then tries and nearly succeeds at getting a scandi high with easterly winds   

[DR(S)NO]

23 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

GFS 18z gets the northerly in then tries and nearly succeeds at getting a scandi high with easterly winds   

I’m surprised that first one is not for a few days later

 

Edited October 20, 2018 by DR(S)NO

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes no probs

If things pan out as usual the residual heights could be underestimated...

Certainly hope so. I am intrigued by the meto forecast for mid November. I have seen the archives for the second week of Nov 62. I will say no more! 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

control run & P4 have nice kinks in the isobars during the northerly possibly bringing a heavier spell of sleet/snow     P3 nearly gets the easterly in  P4 tries to get heights into Greenland at the end of the run  P19 gets the high retrogressing from scandi to Greenland  pretty much all the GEFS runs get the northerly in  

[Met4Cast]

"It's pointless chasing a Northerly"

Well.. it is the model output discussion.. this is the "hunt for cold thread" and the models are showing a Northerly.. what would you rather us be looking at, instead? Blimey it's starting early this year. 

Whilst snow away from the hills in the North is unlikely, some models particularly the ECM show a more widespread risk of snowfall even down to lower levels late next weekend. I'm certainly not ruling out the risk of snow in the South given the timeframes we're dealing with and the fact that models have upgraded the depth of cold over the last couple of days.

[nick sussex]

The northerly toppler doesn’t seem to be the bog standard two cold days then a return to a sw flow type .

Both the ECM and now the GFS18 hrs run show a half hearted attempt from the Atlantic.

So what comes after isn’t nailed on especially with that forecast reduction in the strat.

Unusually we’ve seen this colder snap upgraded , initially the high looked like being too close to the UK with too much energy heading over the top but with time the high has displaced further to the nw .

Its of course a bit too early for anything of note , but still interesting for late October .

[lassie23]

Had lying snow in October 2008 in London, this looks like a more prolonged cold spell than that, so anything could happen, just as long as it isn't 8c and sunny like most recent northerlies. East is best for London, can someone prod the beast and wake him up early this year.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO 0z really going for this northerly at T144:

One messed up trop vortex to boot:

And the cold air flooding south:

One of those many occasions with the UKMO that you want to see the next couple of charts!

[SMU]

So a 'slight' moderation of the cold today because the CAA heads further west, then winds swing more NE-

Notice over the last 24 hours the residual heights that remain north of the jet have grown over Scandi -

A great winter time evolution, but to early for cold from an easterly just yet-

Note though the cold pool growing as a result over Scandi

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Great models this morning with the intensity of the northerly increased compared to a few days ago when some showed it being too Far East...on this mornings charts GFS, UKMO, ECM it will be cold category (for time of year) and not cool.  Also any Atlantic incursion after shows being disrupted, indicative of a developing cold pattern but too early for real bite, and for me I’d like to see this “attempt” several times during Nov until taking hold towards the end.  GFS shows a stormy approach to Bonfire period .....one to watch.  

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Dare I say an arctic northerly appears to be in the bag for next weekend..hoping it's as severe as it is possible to be for the time of year..something similar to the end of october 2008 would do nicely!!!!!

[bluearmy]

Diving troughs ............... the waxing and waning of Atlantic rigging coupled with propensity for blocking to our east means the systems have to dive se as the trough is forced to disrupt. Week 2 looks like being this way - how far to the east will the mean troughing set up??  we certainly look to be the right area and six weeks down the line this set up would be encouraging many many posts!  chuck in the repeating patterns for the upcoming season appearing at this time of year and this could become a busy place .....

whilst taking into account it’s an op at day 10, note how far north the tropical air gets in the n Pacific on ec  .............. that would be the catalyst for those crazy gfs runs recently which split the developing Pv apart with a huge arctic ridge

[carinthian]

On ‎19‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 14:40, carinthian said:

ECM showing a second more potent attack from the North next weekend to include the UK. Also, sort up ties in with the UKMO worded forecast that covers this extended period. Will be interesting to see whether the ECM model this evening holds this positioning or whether GFS brings back the North European trough in focus towards the British Isles. Just for good measure our snow accumulation forecasts have been upgraded to 35cm by 31 St October, still in the 40% probability rate which is still high to medium for this time span.

C

Morning all, a very different looking chart this morning from ECM with cold advection towards the end of next week now further west into NW Europe. However, we in the Alps have warm air advected from Africa, so that will throw a spanner into our snow forecast calculations ( re above post )  nothing nailed yet for the exact location of the North European trough but this weekends latest runs from the big global models have shown a daily adjustment. Hope to get an update  tomorrow morning from our experts and see what their own model is now showing, but looks like a cold weekend coming towards Blighty, especially.

C

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended shows further precipitation for some parts especially around the coasts for the vast majority inland it's dry

 

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Dare I say an arctic northerly appears to be in the bag for next weekend..hoping it's as severe as it is possible to be for the time of year..something similar to the end of october 2008 would do nicely!!!!!

Normally with a northerly, you can expect an eastward soft of the patten even at D3/D4 - but the persistence of the ECM mean makes me think this really is going to happen as advertised. 

My hunch is that locations 300 meters + above sea level could be plunged into whiteness at some point next weekend. 

A real shock to the system after months on end of 20C plus weather down here! 

Just to add from last night's clusters too - at T300, you can see possibilities for colder weather still exist - positive anomalies building in northern areas, a bit of potential for the jet to undercut into Europe there. Not particularly clear cut at the moment, but the development of the ECM D10 (potential cold Scandi high). this morning doesn't appear a complete outlier. 

Edited October 21, 2018 by Man With Beard

[Summer Sun]

The 7-day trend is only going one way and that's below average with above average temps becoming confined to parts of eastern and se Europe

Edited October 21, 2018 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

Northerly aside my attention is turning to Bonfire weekend , looks quite uncertain at this juncture, would be nice to have a dry weekend - certainly don't want wind and rain!!

GFS00z looks really quite wet and windy for the 1st weekend in Nov but obviously that could change in future runs.

[SMU]

Yet another GFS run- yet more Scandi heights recovered...

The -8c Line digging further & further South into Northern Europe

thats a pretty cold chart for the ESE @192..