Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[MR EXTREMES]

20 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Both AO And NAO go very negative the end of October through possible recovery to netural

That's not very negative look at 09/10 winter for strong neg AO and NAO.

But there's no doubt something interesting is brewing.

We have seen many times the whole pattern collapse.

Although this year seems extremely sluggish which helps to get blocks becoming strong and robust.

This might just be a cold snap but if the heights stay out west and northwest anything cold has a better chance.

 

The JMA has been pretty consistent but there's always a chance things could go east.

But wait and see looking good tho 

[SLEETY]

19 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Almost certainly going to a very cold northerly later on this week with perhaps sleet or snow at lower levels if the GFS 12z is believed. Next question is how long will it last? Will the block become anchored over Greenland and keep the cold going? or will it be a toppler?

looks like only a topper i’m afraid,turning very much milder again after next Sunday according to the latest bbc forecast.They have extra model data i presume to come to that conclusion ,over a week away ?

[Jemma Croton]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

looks like only a topper i’m afraid,turning very much milder again after next Sunday according to the latest bbc forecast.They have extra model data i presume to come to that conclusion ,over a week away ?

As far as I’m aware they stopped using MEtO last year and so don’t have access to MOGREPS etc anymore but may have replaced with their own? 

[Frosty.]

Nice Northerly setting in from the arctic @ T+144 hours on the Ukmo 12z..next weekend would become even colder..add to this a great update from exeter and this is a very good time to be a coldie considering winter doesn't even start for another five weeks!!

[MR EXTREMES]

30 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

looks like only a topper i’m afraid,turning very much milder again after next Sunday according to the latest bbc forecast.They have extra model data i presume to come to that conclusion ,over a week away ?

Nothing I've seen suggest this from data or the weather forecast don't suggest a warm up maybe bit milder briefly.

but the forecasts I've watched all point to cooler colder weather whether that be unsettled cool or unsettled cold,

or settled cold,

then that still points to colder than average.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

A 20th century great that winter...

BFTP

[Eskimo]

Isn't searching for a northerly this time of year somewhat...pointless? You would need something incredibly potent (eg. 2008) for any interest to occur. The vast majority of the UK will see cool temperatures, a nippy wind and rain. The coldest most densely habitable locations go is between 5-8C according to the GFS. It's wonderful of course if you are just looking for colder conditions, but if it's snow then it will be restricted to high peaks. 

Edited October 20, 2018 by PerfectStorm

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

all i say  November  could get interesting

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, tinybill said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

all i say  November  could get interesting

Those charts aren't particularly exciting I don't think, westerlies with temperatures a little below average is all I can see there.

For next weekends northerly to be more then a toppler our best bet is to get the cold over Europe as well and then get pressure to build over Scandi. This wouldn't be particularly cold but its still early days though.

 

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Isn't searching for a northerly this time of year somewhat...pointless? You would need something incredibly potent (eg. 2008) for any interest to occur. The vast majority of the UK will see cool temperatures, a nippy wind and rain. The coldest most densely habitable locations go is between 5-8C according to the GFS. It's wonderful of course if you are just looking for colder conditions, but if it's snow then it will be restricted to high peaks. 

I couldn't agree more PS...In this part of the world, the best we'll from that'd be about 8C with some cold rain. Or, should we be really lucky, some driving drizzle.

Lovely!

[SMU]

The Northerly next weekend is a slow toppled however expext it to topple & remain in situ over Scandi -

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The Northerly next weekend is a slow toppled however expext it to topple & remain in situ over Scandi -

Ecm op tonight edging away from any toppler scenario. 

Edited October 20, 2018 by blizzard81

[Iceaxecrampon]

12Z

Cold N feed continues next weekend only ppn for the tops maybe if you feel like getting out.

[blizzard81]

I think we are now seeing a trend to a more unsettled phase of weather after the northerly. The question is how long for? According to the meto, pressure will build to the north of the UK during the middle of Nov. I just wish this was a few weeks further on though. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12z GEFS

P9  P10  P12 with a great looking northerly  P15 with an interesting pattern northerly then tries to get the winds in from the east with the high heading up towards scandi  P17  ECM 

[bluearmy]

There is some snow, even across se England on that ec run late next weekend 

[Iceaxecrampon]

42 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Isn't searching for a northerly this time of year somewhat...pointless? You would need something incredibly potent (eg. 2008) for any interest to occur. The vast majority of the UK will see cool temperatures, a nippy wind and rain. The coldest most densely habitable locations go is between 5-8C according to the GFS. It's wonderful of course if you are just looking for colder conditions, but if it's snow then it will be restricted to high peaks. 

Yes maybe but the new thread is the search for cold however futile.

Maybe ppn (white not drizzle) on the tops?

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm op tonight edging away from any toppler scenario. 

Its 100% a toppler - it was never going to be anything else-

However there my be enough residual heights to the NNE to steer the jet SE which is exactly what the ECM tries to do-

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This scenario has reload written all over it, and it could get quite ‘lively’ early Nov as the reload comes.  Below average is about to take over, and could be the ‘lead’ as we head into a cold early winter...

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Charts to warm the cockles of a coldies heart from the Ecm 12z with our first cold blast looking very likely later next week..can't wait for it to get here..some of us could see SNOW before the end of october, the last time that happened was 2008!!!

Edited October 20, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Another shot at the 4 wave pattern from the FV3 tonight, here at T174:

And a real cold blast at the UK next weekend too...

fascinating to see where this all leads.

[Singularity]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There is some snow, even across se England on that ec run late next weekend 

Funny enough that'd be precisely 10 years to the date since the Oct 2008 snow that even managed to fall in London for a time.

Gave me a miss of course, but it takes a lot more to do the business over here than in the SE. My snow appetite is unusually low this winter though - thanks to the amount I saw last Feb-Mar. It's so liberating .

[Tim Bland]

Here’s a graphic showing snow fall on 12z ecm. Remember that we suspect this accumulates all snow that has fallen, so is not a realistic reflection of snow depth. 

 

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Another shot at the 4 wave pattern from the FV3 tonight, here at T174:

And a real cold blast at the UK next weekend too...

fascinating to see where this all leads.

Hi Mike

the most important ingredient to getting ( & sustaining ) a 4 wave pattern is to have high pressure over the pole for the ridges to engage with - like weather historys post earlier-

If you have low heights you will never sustain any 4 waves because at least 2 will be transient --

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi Mike

the most important ingredient to getting ( & sustaining ) a 4 wave pattern is to have high pressure over the pole for the ridges to engage with - like weather historys post earlier-

If you have low heights you will never sustain any 4 waves because at least 2 will be transient --

Thanks Steve, that does make sense, apologies if I was getting a little overexcited, there's a lot of interest in the model output at the moment, despite it still being mid-October!

JMA 12z has the pressure rising into Greenland at T144:

I know the values over Greenland are suspect but nice to see the 1075 contour make an appearance nonetheless.

Meanwhile, in the strat, GFS suggesting the PV brakes coming on big time: