Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond

[Man With Beard]

Great to see Knocker posting in a longer term model thread again

As this post is not strictly focusing on cold potential, I shall stick it in here. Out to T300 on the clusters - a split. 22 members still trying to maintain some sort of northern blocking especially near to Scandi (not too convincing though) with possibilities for cold being maintained, 16 members stick us between westerly source and SEly (uncertain if cold or mild), and 13 members give the main trough license to move freely to our north, bringing in milder westerlies. 

[Summer Sun]

This would bring some pretty exceptional warmth to parts of Europe for the time of year if it came off with winds coming up from Africa

T-Shirt weather for Halloween

 

[Methuselah]

It's good that there is still this thread available. It's good to get an idea what the weather's actually likely to do, rather than endure a non-stop reinforcement therapy-session for snow-starved coldies...Too much time spent in an echo chamber can be detrimental to one's long-term sanity, sanity, sanity.

[mb018538]

I agree - better to keep the cold hunting on its own thread, as you can quickly lose sight of the here and now.

looks likely we’re staying cold for a little while, with a definite increase in ppn after the weekend. Temps gradually recovering back to average as we head into November.

[Zesyph]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's good that there is still this thread available. It's good to get an idea what the weather's actually likely to do, rather than endure a non-stop reinforcement therapy-session for snow-starved coldies...Too much time spent in an echo chamber can be detrimental to one's long-term sanity, sanity, sanity.

Except the potential warm up end of next week has also been noted in the coldies model thread? No need for baseless digs at other members looking forward to winter. 

If you dont have anything to say regarding the model outputs then please dont pollute the threads with witty remarks that provide no contribution. I look forward to reading the posts from knowledgeable posters here as I'm new to this but these types of comments are not needed. Keep it to the moans thread. 

Edited October 22, 2018 by Zesyph

[knocker]

To very briefly answer my own question in the short range thread  The renewed amplification in the western Atlantic forces the next trough south east creating a cut off high cell to the north, which eventually connects to the east European ridge, and a complex area of low pressure in the vicinity of the UK. The evolution next week is a long way from a done deal

Edited October 23, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

One has to say this morning's GEFS anomaly is sympathetic to the det, run evolution.

[Summer Sun]

2nd run in a row from ECM which shows milder/warmer air flooding north through Europe and towards the UK as we leave October and go into November

[knocker]

Yes indeed SS as the ecm takes the trough on more a more southerly route. As mentioned previously next week is a long way from a done deal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

It's good that there is still this thread available. It's good to get an idea what the weather's actually likely to do, rather than endure a non-stop reinforcement therapy-session for snow-starved coldies...Too much time spent in an echo chamber can be detrimental to one's long-term sanity, sanity, sanity.

4 weeks yet until I start looking for cold, living here, for now let's have it warm

[Methuselah]

Not a bad evolution at all - if indeed it verifies:

[mb018538]

Parts of Germany must be heading for some record breaking temps if that ECM verifies. 850s north of 15c into the first week of November are amazing really.

As for us - potential there to go from something wintry to a complete reversal a few days later. Autumn in a nutshell.

[Summer Sun]

3 or 4 day's of something cooler looking at the ECM mean (red line) then something a bit milder again as we head into November for the south

Scotland holds onto the colder air longest

[BlueHedgehog074]

If the likes of the ECMWF keep showing that sort of outlook with Low Pressure becoming more concentrated to the South/South-West of the U.K with the flow becoming more South-Easterly, then it will be something worth taking more notice of. Particularly if  other models start supporting it.

While the 00Z GEM isn’t exactly the same towards the end (the blocking High is generally positioned more further North-East towards Eastern Scandinavia/Russia, it does still have the flow generally becoming more South-Easterly for the U.K..

Probably not as warm as the ECMWF. But having the flow becoming more towards the South-East or South could be a feasible evolution to head towards.

Personally, if the likes of the ECMWF does start to occur more frequently, then would personally love for that Eastern UK blocking High Pressure to be a little further West or South-West, so that it ends up becoming more settled with any Low Pressure to the South-West being pushed out the way.

Admittedly though, an looking forward to the Northerly before worrying too much about what may happen after. The mid-Atlantic ridge toppling into Scandinavia does look a likely solution, though.

Edited October 23, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[Summer Sun]

Tentative hints from GFS moving towards a milder/warmer outlook for a lot of Europe as we leave October and move into November

 

Edited October 23, 2018 by Summer Sun
Spelling typo

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tentive hints from GFS moving towards a milder/warmer outlook for a lot of Europe as we leave October and move into November

 

It's the continued lack of any raging zonality that I find particularly interesting, SS, and not so much whether any particular day turns out mild or cold: do I see another 'rut' forming?

Should the PFJ carry on with its meanderings into winter, anything could happen...From one extreme to the other?

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

It's the continued lack of any raging zonality that I find particularly interesting, SS, and not so much whether any particular day turns out mild or cold: do I see another 'rut' forming?

Should the PFJ carry on with its meanderings into winter, anything could happen...From one extreme to the other?

It's certainly an interesting old year for the weather one full of surprises from the bitter March to the long hot summer

What the final 9 weeks or so of the year will bring is anyone's guess

[knocker]

Just to note the EPS is not adverse to the det run

[Methuselah]

A tad corny I know...But, with all that's happening model-wise, let's hope that we're not about to witness a re-run of General Cluster's last stand?

[knocker]

According to the ecm at T120 the resurgent ridge to the west of the UK has facilitated the southward movement of the trough over the UK which starts to promote high pressure ridging north in south east Europe. Whilst at the same time the aforementioned ridge is under severe pressure from the upper trough tracking east from NE North America.

Within 24 hours the American trough has split the ridge, en route to dipping south east to phase with the other trough, creating a cut off high cell to the north east of the UK which links to the European ridge

All of which within another 24 hours ends up with a very complex area of low pressure in the vicinity of the UK and portending some unsettled weather. But I wouldn't bet the house on it at this stage.

Edited October 23, 2018 by knocker

[damianslaw]

Not your average end of October synoptics on offer at present. Heights building quickly through the east atlantic into Greenland, enabling a long fetch northerly to invade becoming NE for a time, before heights collapse and ridge into Scandi - not the 24 hr northerly toppler.

As we move into November, the models appear to be latching onto a theme whereby heights hold strong to the NE, but also build to our SE, the question is where the atlantic trough positions itself. Indications are that it may sit to our SW and we could then see a rather cyclonic start to November, some milder air from the south getting into the mix, but with heights holding firm to the NE, it will struggle which would result in slow moving frontal rain, with the north exposed to colder drier conditions.

 

[knocker]

The evolution next week is complex and a long way from being settled.

The ecm this morning is similar to last evening in that that the incoming upper trough splits the ridge as it tracks south east, courtesy of ridge amplification in the western Atlantic, which creates the cut off upper cell to the north which then links to the European ridge.

It continues south east into Iberia whilst at the same time our current trough swings north into the North Sea along the western flank of the ridge with the UK sitting in the middle of all the action. Thus probably unsettled with temps a tad below normal but the detail will be a nightmare to sort

 

[johnholmes]

No great confidence in the 500 mb anomaly charts, see their latest below.

However they do all 3 show troughing as the main feature in the UK area, albeit EC-GFS having a cut off from the main trough which NOAA does not show.

The 8-14 NOAA shows no sign of any ridging with a broad trough centred just WSW of the UK from an Atlantic westerly its main feature. This indicates a diffluent trough so surface features developing in the flow may deepen markedly near to the UK?

(diffluent simply means the flow decreases into the trough, confluent means it increases)

Fence sitting time for me!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[knocker]

I don't normally bother with the 06 gfs but this forthcoming evolution is quite interesting. It has the next trough tracking south east closer to the UK and thus the previous trough swinging north into Scandinavia, albeit struggling against the ridge. This tends to stall the front close to western regions of the UK but also facilitates some impressive WAA into eastern Europe. I suspect this going to take a couple of days to sort the detail with any confidence

[bluearmy]

I think the sceuro upper ridge seems pretty secure by day 10 - it would seem that troughing around our longtitude is unavoidable given the Azores ridge to our west is likely to also be more on a N/S axis 

from the coldies perspective this is a decent evolution with WAA being pumped into the arctic to our NNE - better to have this set up in early November than a wishy washy early season northerly ......