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Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Hi BFTV,

 

Are thicknesses still poor, or are we at least seeing see ice thicken more so than previous AGM Winters! 

Hi,
Volume has increased at a much faster than average rate over the late Autumn. From 4th lowest to 6th lowest (for the time of year). We'll need a colder winter over the Arctic than we've seen in recent years in order to keep the good volume growth up. The SSW coming up may scupper the chances of that occurring though.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Hi,
Volume has increased at a much faster than average rate over the late Autumn. From 4th lowest to 6th lowest (for the time of year). We'll need a colder winter over the Arctic than we've seen in recent years in order to keep the good volume growth up. The SSW coming up may scupper the chances of that occurring though.

BFTV

Have you studied the effects of SST's and Arctic volume?

I was very surprised at the way that the ice volume initially decreased, but then increased suddenly after  the SST occurred this year (end of Feb).

Was  this an abnormal response?.

 

DMI chart for reference  - 

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20181212.png

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

BFTV

Have you studied the effects of SST's and Arctic volume?

I was very surprised at the way that the ice volume initially decreased, but then increased suddenly after  the SST occurred this year (end of Feb).

Was  this an abnormal response?.

DMI chart for reference  - 

CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20181212.png

I suspect its to do with 2M temperatures over the central Arctic being well above average until mid-March (and especially so in Feb during the SSW), but then recovering to only just above average by late-March/early-April. Volume generally increases until May, so with much cooler relative temperatures and 6 weeks of net growth time still left it rebounded quite well:

meanT_2018.png 

Edited by reef
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
23 minutes ago, reef said:

I suspect its to do with 2M temperatures over the central Arctic being well above average until mid-March (and especially so in Feb during the SSW), but then recovering to only just above average by late-March/early-April. Volume generally increases until May, so with much cooler relative temperatures and 6 weeks of net growth time still left it rebounded quite well:

meanT_2018.png 

Reef...

Thanks for the response.

You were right, I was referring to the SSW and not the SST's.

Whilst you are correct in terms of the temperatures, it still doesn't  explain why the temperature dropped so quickly.

It was widely reported at the time that the SSW would displace the cold air from the Arctic.(eg into Europe and ourselves). It seems as though any  heating caused by the SSW in the upper Arctic, was rapidly dissipated. Perhaps the cold dry air allowed clearer skies which allowed the temperatures to drop?

Why did sending this warming into the pole cause the temperature to fall so rapidly afterwards in the polar regions?

I have not seen an explanation so far for this effect.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

While the SSW certainly had a big impact, it's easy to read too much into the temperature variations afterwards, especially as huge swings can happen with regular changing weather patterns anyway.

However, a related paper might be of some interest.

What caused the remarkable February 2018 North Greenland Polynya?

During late February and early March 2018, an unusual polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland. This period was also notable for the occurrence of a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Here we use satellite and in‐situ data, a reanalysis and an ice‐ocean model to document the evolution of the polynya and its synoptic forcing. We show that its magnitude was unprecedented and that it was associated with the transient response to the SSW leading to anomalous warm southerly flow in north Greenland. Indeed, regional wind speeds and temperatures were the highest during February going back to the 1960s. There is evidence that the thinning sea ice has increased its wind‐driven mobility. However, we show that the polynya would have developed under thicker ice conditions representative of the late 1970s and that even with the predicted trend towards thinner sea ice, it will only open during enhanced southerly flow.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080902

And a summary of the paper
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-sudden-stratospheric-linked-polar-ice.html

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

BFTV..

 Thanks for your reply. Like Reef's reply to me it looks as if you describe a small-scale symptom of the SSW.

The wider view is that a large cooling of the Arctic seems to have been initiated by the SSW.

You may well have explained why the temperature rose during the first couple of days. But surely the more interesting phase was the month long cool period? The temperature then stayed much cooler than in most recent years for a while during the spring, despite the massive outpouring of cold into the Northern Hemisphere. As a result the ice volume thickened by a figure of about 1M KM3.

(see the above chart - not much extra extent was observed whilst the cooling took place).

Are you suggesting that it was a complete coincidence?

MIA

.

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I dont think its terribly unusual to have a rapid cool down after a massive warm up which the Arctic had back in February. Thankfully it did cool down in March otherwise we were heading towards 2017 levels in terms of ice volume. 

Been an interesting refreeze season so far in terms of temperature with the very warm October(mainly thanks to the large open water in the Laptev) to a much colder November with an Arctic high dominating. December so far has been mixed with some areas at average or just below and some areas still having large positive anaomlies, mainly along the Atlantic front and parts of the Kara, the high anaomolies mostly because of the open water mind so ill be interested too see the updated volune figures because it has not been anything like 2016 and its been much colder in general on the Pacific side of the basin hence the Chuckchi finally refreezing over. The slow refreeze despite mostly favorable conditions tells me just how warm the SSTS were and if we had the southerlies like last year then the open water would be much larger than even last year.

I think the big question for this refreeze season will be will Svalbard stay totally ice freeze during the whole season? And if so, what impacts that could have on the melt season? 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
3 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

I dont think its terribly unusual to have a rapid cool down after a massive warm up which the Arctic had back in February. Thankfully it did cool down in March otherwise we were heading towards 2017 levels in terms of ice volume. Been an interesting refreeze season so far in terms of temperature with the very warm October(mainly thanks to the large open water in the Laptev) to a much colder November with an Arctic high dominating. December so far has been mixed with some areas at average or just below and some areas still having large positive anaomlies, mainly along the Atlantic front and parts of the Kara, the high anaomolies mostly because of the open water mind so ill be interested too see the updated volune figures because it has not been anything like 2016 and its been much colder in general on the Pacific side of the basin hence the Chuckchi finally refreezing over. The slow refreeze despite mostly favorable conditions tells me just how warm the SSTS were and if we had the southerlies like last year then the open water would be much larger than even

Thanks for the reply GS..

So the verdict seems to be that  it was somewhat of a coincidence.

I think I need a bit more convincing.

Towards that end .. the seeming now nearly certain SSW can be watched over the next month.. It may give us an answer. Or it may do something totally different..

Certainly it will be worth watching the Northern ice situation.

MIA

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Bering sea ice extent in the last few days has now gone pass the maximum amount we saw all last winter which showed just how extraordinary last year really was in this region but also shows the year to year variability in certain regions.

Suspect Kara sea extent will continue to grow from current below average conditions with cold Northerlies set to dominate. Will the ice edge actually ever hit Svalbard as the current/warm SSTs just seems to be preventing the ice pack moving further Southwards despite the cold conditions with just 'pancake' looking ice around Svalbard, certainly one to watch because the ice edge did not hit Svalbard at all last year and could of been a factor of the extreme Atlantification last summer. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Arctic sea ice is continuing its slightly erratic behaviour.

Over the last week or so, it climbed up to 12.84 million km2 and 9th lowest for the date, but has since shrunk over last 2 days, dropping a total of around 70k and is now back down to 4th lowest.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
58 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Arctic sea ice is continuing its slightly erratic behaviour.

Over the last week or so, it climbed up to 12.84 million km2 and 9th lowest for the date, but has since shrunk over last 2 days, dropping a total of around 70k and is now back down to 4th lowest.

Out of interest, why is only ads data used, as nsidc never seems to get a mention? Nsidc always paints a better picture, but I've never found any definitive answers as to which data is the best way of measuring sea ice!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
3 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Out of interest, why is only ads data used, as nsidc never seems to get a mention? Nsidc always paints a better picture, but I've never found any definitive answers as to which data is the best way of measuring sea ice!

Anyone is free to mention whatever sea ice measure they like!
The different monitoring groups use different satellites, sensors and processing algorithms. There is no all around perfect measure really, mainly different measurements for different purposes

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent
  • Location: Ramsgate, Kent

https://www.vedur.is/hafis/tilkynningar/ - Sea Ice approaching fast towards Iceland. Sea Ice typically around Iceland has diminished since 1987 and recent levels have been similar to the late 1920's-30's and 50's, but recently Ice is slowly starting to reappear again.

https://www.vedur.is/media/hafis/frodleikur/is_koch_hlynur_1877-1968.pdf - Ice levels around Iceland between 1881-1968 (I saw a copy of this book when I was in Reykjavik 3 years ago - Interesting read) 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Fascinating to see the sea ice around Iceland in the late 1800s. Thanks for sharing!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Thought I come on here and get depressed. Neither ice pack doing brilliantly at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Thought I come on here and get depressed. Neither ice pack doing brilliantly at the moment.

Surely the Arctic is doing fairly ok considering?

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 hours ago, Rambo said:

Surely the Arctic is doing fairly ok considering?

yep esp when you consider ice levels are always bench marked against the high tide of Arctic sea ice which was 1979..i wonder why?

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
9 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

yep esp when you consider ice levels are always bench marked against the high tide of Arctic sea ice which was 1979..i wonder why?

You, and others, keep repeating this myth, despite it being false and demonstrated to be false on many occasions.  I wonder why?

Here's a selection of several records going back before 79, different approaches, seasons, etc. Not one shows 79 as being any kind of high point at all. 1979 isn't even the year with the most ice since 1979!

walsh-et-al-2016-fig8.png?w=768&h=521 seasonal-extent-1900-2010.png?w=768&h=62 11.png

HistSummerArcticSeaIceExtent.jpg

Please don't link to a climate contrarian blog as justification, it will just get removed. Try to explain things yourself.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
14 hours ago, Rambo said:

Surely the Arctic is doing fairly ok considering?

Well in terms of extent its a little bit more with most years than 2017 and 2018 were where they were quite a bit lower than we are now but ita volume that will be the most important. Unfortunately with the goverenment shutdown in the states we have not had any volume updates for December but its safe to say that this freezing season has thankfully not been like 2016/17 where alot of warmth was consistantly spilling in from the Atlantic. Infacts parts of the pacific side of the Arctic has been at or slightly below normal at times although this has now changed with high preasure over the Beaufort sea bringing in warmer air. This looks like breaking down in the coming days and colder conditions could well return.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:

Well in terms of extent its a little bit more with most years than 2017 and 2018 were where they were quite a bit lower than we are now but ita volume that will be the most important. Unfortunately with the goverenment shutdown in the states we have not had any volume updates for December but its safe to say that this freezing season has thankfully not been like 2016/17 where alot of warmth was consistantly spilling in from the Atlantic. Infacts parts of the pacific side of the Arctic has been at or slightly below normal at times although this has now changed with high preasure over the Beaufort sea bringing in warmer air. This looks like breaking down in the coming days and colder conditions could well return.

Will this post be regarded as contrarian?

Masie currently is showing the ice at the 6th lowest in the last 13/14 years.

and it does look to be increasing more rapidly than 'normal' in the next few days.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

which is broken up into the regions as follows -

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

 

This is backed up by the JAXA plots (thanks to ASIF) which show the ice in 7th position currently

The JAXA plots below represent a fairly consistent trend in this  'very variable' winter season.

A slight upturn in the next few days will send 2019 into one of  the highest of the last 15 years.

image.png.ecdc03b59e8d22dcd28ff2a83a8281b9.png

Examination of the graphs displayed above by  BFTV shows that ice reduction in the Arctic commenced in the late 19th century.

It is more than likely that this is reduction in ice from the LIA than anything to do with AGW.

The long term graph although dropping catastrophically seem to be forming a 'bottom' over the last 10 years.

Why might this be? Is it also an artefact of AGW?

 

I have seen a wooden vessel which had sailed through via the Northern Sea Route (and back) in Juneau during the late 18 hundreds.. If the ice had been as extensive as the attempts your graphs attempt to portray then there is no way it could  have survived the route (and back) the following year.

Variability in Artic ice has been ongoing as reported by Swedish and Danish Organisations over the last 100 years and reported in many press articles.  

DMI continues to monitor ice thickness and volume. (see below), -  they confirm that volume has not dropped. 

The next few years will be more than interesting..

image.png.4871423245d1c462c693c1860716a5cd.png

 

MIA

 

 

 

 

 

Arctic Values 190115 ADS NIPR VISHOP JAXA.jpg

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20190115.png

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

I have seen a wooden vessel which had sailed through via the Northern Sea Route (and back) in Juneau during the late 18 hundreds.. If the ice had been as extensive as the attempts your graphs attempt to portray then there is no way it could  have survived the route (and back) the following year.

 

 I presume at the time you made a painting or diary entry to document this Wooden Vessel?  If so could we see it?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, parrotingfantasist said:

 I presume at the time you made a painting or diary entry to document this Wooden Vessel?  If so could we see it?

PF..

Sorry no.

It was a centrepiece of a collection of old ships. Voyages back in the 19th century around the North of Canada can be found on the web. It was possibly the most notable. 

I took pictures of the vessels  (it was in a type of museum (collection) of old boats), on the dock side , but I lost my computer and all my old pictures a couple of years ago. So sorry, the date I do have - it was May 2014.

 

Any comments on the data I supplied?

Masie (as I suggested has just issued today with a 3 times the daily average uplift of 140K km2), so we could be seeing an increase this year (but who knows?). 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
14 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

You, and others, keep repeating this myth, despite it being false and demonstrated to be false on many occasions.  I wonder why?

Here's a selection of several records going back before 79, different approaches, seasons, etc. Not one shows 79 as being any kind of high point at all. 1979 isn't even the year with the most ice since 1979!

walsh-et-al-2016-fig8.png?w=768&h=521 seasonal-extent-1900-2010.png?w=768&h=62 11.png

HistSummerArcticSeaIceExtent.jpg

Please don't link to a climate contrarian blog as justification, it will just get removed. Try to explain things yourself.

no of these charts jive with news articles at the time about the alarming reduction in sea ice in the arctic that appeared from the 1920s through the early 1950s

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
15 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Any comments on the data I supplied?

Masie (as I suggested has just issued today with a 3 times the daily average uplift of 140K km2), so we could be seeing an increase this year (but who knows?). 

MIA

18 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Will this post be regarded as contrarian?

Masie currently is showing the ice at the 6th lowest in the last 13/14 years.

and it does look to be increasing more rapidly than 'normal' in the next few days.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

which is broken up into the regions as follows -

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

Hi MIA,

While none of us are career experts on Arctic sea ice, remember that the NSIDC, who make the MASIE data set, make it explicitly clear that it is not to be used for gauging trends or making historical comparisons. From their documentation:

While operational analyses are usually the most accurate and timely representation of sea ice, they have errors and biases that change over time. If one is interested in long-term trends in sea ice or how it responds to changing climate forcing, generally, it is best not to use an operational product, but rather one that is consistently produced and retroactively quality controlled. The NSIDC Sea Ice Index monthly ice extent, and the satellite passive microwave data sets upon which it is based, is one example. The Sea Ice Index gives a daily image of extent as well as monthly products. However, these daily images [MASIE] are not meant to be used for climate studies or for inferring anything longer than seasonal trends. Satellite data are not quality controlled quickly enough; and for reasons explained in the Sea Ice Index documentation, the daily ice edge position can be off by tens of kilometers or more from the ice edge that an analyst would draw. Reasons include known errors in thin ice detection, bias in summertime concentration estimates, and the relative compactness of the marginal ice zone. See Partington et al. (2003) for an assessment of operational versus satellite-derived ice concentration.

The NSIDC sea ice index, the ADS data, and area, extent and volume data from various other agencies are suited to trend analysis and long term comparisons, but not MASIE.
All of this has been explained to you at length before. So looking at short term (weeks/seasonal) patterns with MASIE is fine. However, if you insist on using the data for historical comparisons (the very thing the experts who created it said not to do), then your future posts doing so will get edited or removed.

Finally, if you're going to make bold claims about wooden ships sailing through the Arctic easily in the 1800s, provide a source for the claim or don't post them at all.
For those interested, here's an interesting article on the history of the northern sea route: https://www.nersc.no/sites/www.nersc.no/files/fulltext-3.pdf

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