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Arctic Sea Ice - The Refreeze 2018/19

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It's time for a new thread as we've passed the minimum this year and the regrowth of Arctic sea ice has begun.

As always, please stick to the rules for the section, the end of the last thread was already going well off course.

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Not sure if this belongs here, but why is Arctic warming so much more then Antarctina, what would be the scientific explanation to that, or any link  to a research document?

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Well guys we inch to a possible record-

After staging a comeback over the last few days - we are again teetering over the edge.

Yesterday saw a LOSS of 8k - just 132k shy of a record minimum-
This is a backdrop of a fairly positive AO which should lock the early cold in-

The next 10 days see a -AO setting up with more warm air imported Northwards in waves-

I would say 3-4 more days could tip us over the edge...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Okay so the world is ending in a few days before it does I'll post a chart that was behaving and now has gone a bit mad

meanT_2018.thumb.png.dd76736abe5fd3dd1e9a3215d0f972a2.png

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Okay so the world is ending in a few days before it does I'll post a chart that was behaving and now has gone a bit mad

meanT_2018.thumb.png.dd76736abe5fd3dd1e9a3215d0f972a2.png

Is it? Who said that?

Oh, hang on, you did...

Anyway..., there is much less ice this October , or in recent October, than there was just a few decades ago during October.

Edited by Devonian
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The record is set to go sat or sun....,

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deleted

Edited by knocker
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On ‎18‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 18:44, The PIT said:

Okay so the world is ending in a few days before it does I'll post a chart that was behaving and now has gone a bit mad

meanT_2018.thumb.png.dd76736abe5fd3dd1e9a3215d0f972a2.png

Anyone got the link for this ? Cant find it

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Well after the warmth of October, its good too see temperatures have dropped to near average values near the pole, I really was fearing we would see another 2016 type of set up but the PV really formed well. forecasts are saying this will split again but with pressure set to rise across the basin, temperatures are not set to rise all that much and that cold air spilling into the Barants and Kara seas should see ice growth in these regions, especially in the Kara. Hudson Bay should see decent growth also in the next 5 or so days before the weather potentially switching to much milder conditions. The Chuckchi sea is cooling down rapidly and wind direction is a Northerly so whilst open water is there, the temperatures will remain high but hopefully we should see some wind assisted ice growth there also unlike this time last year. 

Look at the GFS archives for this time in November 2016 and we got temperatures in the Barants up towards the Laptev sea approaching 0C with the basin experiencing well above temperatures whilst temperatures in the same area a good deal 25C lower! 

Of course as we head through to winter, will this pattern continue or will we see the storminess of 2016 return? I looked back through the winter of 2016 and the sheer size of the storms were impressive even for winter storms. At least last winter was less stormy but it was very mild because of frequent southerlies through the Bering stright hence the very slow ice growth there. Thank goodness March 2018 was a cold one in the Arctic! 

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Sea ice extent really booming now, at 11th lowest according to the ADS extent measure.
If we keep up anything close to the current rate we could start moving above some 90s years in a few days, and could be mid-pack by months end. An incredible turnaround from lowest for the date just a few weeks back.

How likely is a continuation of the current refreeze rates though?

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5 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Sea ice extent really booming now, at 11th lowest according to the ADS extent measure.
If we keep up anything close to the current rate we could start moving above some 90s years in a few days, and could be mid-pack by months end. An incredible turnaround from lowest for the date just a few weeks back.

How likely is a continuation of the current refreeze rates though?

Checking NSIDC it's mostly because of more ice than usual on the Canada/Hudson bay side than both 'ends' of the Russian Arctic which are still in a big deficit? Interesting to watch tho and to wonder how long it will go on.

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6 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Sea ice extent really booming now, at 11th lowest according to the ADS extent measure.
If we keep up anything close to the current rate we could start moving above some 90s years in a few days, and could be mid-pack by months end. An incredible turnaround from lowest for the date just a few weeks back.

How likely is a continuation of the current refreeze rates though?

BFTV...

 Any theories why this may be happening?

Hudson (before today) was only slightly above average. Ok, today it has suddenly exploded with a refreeze of 130K Km2, and it may well boost numbers in the short term, but the increased rate of refreeze (generally) has been happening for 5 weeks now.

Baffin  is only about 150K Km2 above the average for the date.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

All this despite the Central pack and Barents being below the average, with the temperatures being well above the average for the time of year across the whole Arctic Ocean, apart from Greenland and NE Canada.

Going back to the eighties the ice in the North West  used to freeze up much earlier than today. Could this be relevant?

MIA

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

BFTV...

 Any theories why this may be happening?

Hudson (before today) was only slightly above average. Ok, today it has suddenly exploded with a refreeze of 130K Km2, and it may well boost numbers in the short term, but the increased rate of refreeze (generally) has been happening for 5 weeks now.

Baffin  is only about 150K Km2 above the average for the date.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

All this despite the Central pack and Barents being below the average, with the temperatures being well above the average for the time of year across the whole Arctic Ocean, apart from Greenland and NE Canada.

Going back to the eighties the ice in the North West  used to freeze up much earlier than today. Could this be relevant?

MIA

 

 

Temperatures across the Beaufort sea, Baffin and Hudson Bay were around average to below average through the summer with SST's in Hudson Bay during the summer below average. Canada had a below average Autumn especially during September so Baffin and Hudson was poised for early refreezing if conditions allowed that to be the case. Hudson Bay is going to stay below average temperature wise for the next few days before a major pattern shift so it will be interesting just how much ice will grow there before refreezing should largely drop with the above average conditions it will get by Thursday/Friday.

The Barants sea is below average ice wise but conditions look favourable for ice growth with a major cold pool heading through there in the coming days and spreading down the Kara sea. Not convinced the ice edge will touch the northern parts of the svalbard island but ice may form more on the eastern side, one to watch for sure. How much the Kara sea grows will depend on wind direction, earlier runs looked a bit more favourable but we may see some growth in anycase with the cold conditions.

In the Chukchi sea, again conditions look fairly favourable for ice growth(no southerlies from the pacific as of yet!) although how much ice actually grows because of the SST's there is debatable and high pressure look like will be the driving force across the basin so whilst 850hpa temperature look like will rise somewhat, conditions on ground level should still be fairly cold with the coldest condtions across the Beaufort Sea eventually. 

All that said, its the volume figures which is probably more important than extent and because of the warm October, then we are likely to be quite low in that regard but I'm grateful we are as of yet not seeing conditions like we saw during November 2016. 

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48 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Temperatures across the Beaufort sea, Baffin and Hudson Bay were around average to below average through the summer with SST's in Hudson Bay during the summer below average. Canada had a below average Autumn especially during September so Baffin and Hudson was poised for early refreezing if conditions allowed that to be the case. Hudson Bay is going to stay below average temperature wise for the next few days before a major pattern shift so it will be interesting just how much ice will grow there before refreezing should largely drop with the above average conditions it will get by Thursday/Friday.

The Barants sea is below average ice wise but conditions look favourable for ice growth with a major cold pool heading through there in the coming days and spreading down the Kara sea. Not convinced the ice edge will touch the northern parts of the svalbard island but ice may form more on the eastern side, one to watch for sure. How much the Kara sea grows will depend on wind direction, earlier runs looked a bit more favourable but we may see some growth in anycase with the cold conditions.

In the Chukchi sea, again conditions look fairly favourable for ice growth(no southerlies from the pacific as of yet!) although how much ice actually grows because of the SST's there is debatable and high pressure look like will be the driving force across the basin so whilst 850hpa temperature look like will rise somewhat, conditions on ground level should still be fairly cold with the coldest condtions across the Beaufort Sea eventually. 

All that said, its the volume figures which is probably more important than extent and because of the warm October, then we are likely to be quite low in that regard but I'm grateful we are as of yet not seeing conditions like we saw during November 2016. 

Thanks GS..

A fairly comprehensive review.

The weather conditions 'up there' are not fixed as yet (caused by the swinging from side to side of the forecast vortex).

The volume is beginning to pick up nicely now according to DMI. 

It mirrored  the slow ice extent growth back in Sept/Oct but is now beginning to move into the average range for the 2010 period.

Patches of ice are now showing at 4 meters  in the central Arctic, and thickening appears to be increasing in quite a large patch in the ESS now. 

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_201811

I am sure the next couple of weeks will define this years refreeze. Your version is certainly not disappointing for an improvement in the ice certainly for this year.

 

MIA

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1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks GS..

A fairly comprehensive review.

The weather conditions 'up there' are not fixed as yet (caused by the swinging from side to side of the forecast vortex).

The volume is beginning to pick up nicely now according to DMI. 

It mirrored  the slow ice extent growth back in Sept/Oct but is now beginning to move into the average range for the 2010 period.

Patches of ice are now showing at 4 meters  in the central Arctic, and thickening appears to be increasing in quite a large patch in the ESS now. 

FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_201811

I am sure the next couple of weeks will define this years refreeze. Your version is certainly not disappointing for an improvement in the ice certainly for this year.

 

MIA

I rather use Piomas as a way too see what the volume is than the DMI model which tends to overthicken ice but of course even Piomas is by no means perfect. 

The general pattern so far this Autumn is to have thicker around Beaufort(thanks to an arm of 2nd year ice being blow there) whilst the Siberian side being much thinner. Of course last year, the thickest ice ended up being on the Siberian side as despite the hot summer there, the ice was slow to melt out with the exception of Laptev whilst Beaufort was thinner than usual so will be interesting too see how things are by March.

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We've dropped from 13th lowest extent to joint 6th lowest in little over a week, on ADS. Some ice loss in the Kara Sea, Chukchi and Bering refusing to freeze while Hudson bay ice growth prevents any significant daily losses overall.
Lots of southerly winds into the Barents and Kara sea over the next week, so likely to see no growth or some losses there. Hudson bay switches from cold to mild (relatively) during the week, while the Chukchi and Bering Seas get some cold northerlies, so hopefully they finally see some decent growth.

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I've been keeping to the Jaxa numbers and again today they note a loss?

In its records this drops us to 5th lowest but the scale of gains . 

This time of year the rest of the years in the record are still putting on large numbers each day and we are only 170,000 off second lowest which would appear to be 2 more stall/loss days?

The other thing to note is how much ice we now see down the east coast of Greenland as Fram picks up its dumping of good ice into the Atlantic.

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21 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I've been keeping to the Jaxa numbers and again today they note a loss?

In its records this drops us to 5th lowest but the scale of gains . 

This time of year the rest of the years in the record are still putting on large numbers each day and we are only 170,000 off second lowest which would appear to be 2 more stall/loss days?

The other thing to note is how much ice we now see down the east coast of Greenland as Fram picks up its dumping of good ice into the Atlantic.

Looks 1 more stalled day will have it back to 2nd lowest on record.
Here's the gaps to the years below us and the gains they had for the 5th
Year: __Gap__ Gain for 5th
2017: ...53k.........  +68k
2010:__97k......... +138k
2006:_171k......... +173k
2016:_583k.........  +18k

A 2k minimum increase to prevent 2nd lowest on tomorrows update.

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ADS extent now down to 2nd lowest on record, despite some larger than average gains in recent days. With Hudson Bay now almost completely frozen over, where will the big increases come from next?
I think we need the Pacific side to start pulling its weight if we want to avoid reaching lowest on record before years end.

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1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

ADS extent now down to 2nd lowest on record, despite some larger than average gains in recent days. With Hudson Bay now almost completely frozen over, where will the big increases come from next?
I think we need the Pacific side to start pulling its weight if we want to avoid reaching lowest on record before years end.

..... for the time of year! 

Let's not get carried away like last time lol 

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38 minutes ago, Rambo said:

..... for the time of year! 

Let's not get carried away like last time lol 

Who's getting carried away here?😅
Do I really have to add the qualifier "for the time of year" every time I references the current state of the ice? Surely we're all capable of using context? 

ADS extent now down to 2nd lowest on record for the time of year, despite some larger than average gains for the time of year in recent days. With Hudson Bay now almost completely frozen over, where will the big increases for the time of year come from next?
I think we need the Pacific side to start pulling its weight 
for the time of year if we want to avoid reaching lowest on record for the time of year before years end.

Gets a bit cumbersome and tedious after a while!

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10 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

 

Gets a bit cumbersome and tedious after a while!

Well, only at this time of year

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