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Posted (edited)

I expect Storm Callum will become the third named Storm of the Season today or tomorrow. Latest Runs show quiet a nasty System for Ireland and Western Scotland. Gusts of 70-80mph widely over land, up to 90mph and possibly up to 100mph on coasts. Stay tuned.

UKMO T72

UW72-21.GIF?09-06

GFS T72 T78

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ICON T71 81 84 87

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12Z ECM Gusts(I will mist this mornings run)

Gust as it approaches SW Ireland

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Edited by Jo Farrow
Has been officially named by Met Eireann

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Yep, been keeping an eye on this cheeky chappie. All models singing from the same hymn sheet on this one. Best tie everything down outside!

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Direct hit for Ireland & Scotland on the ICON but other models have it further west but the GFS not far off the ICON also would 'nt take much to be direct hit also.

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Even outside of the core of strongest winds, it looks a very windy day for most of the UK with gale force S'ly/Sw'ly gusts across a wide area.

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Is much disruption likely? Heading from Birmingham to Glasgow Saturday morning by train. 

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Is it just me, or - based on this documentary of the 1987 "Great Storm" - does this incoming system remind one of the same? Bitterly cold preceding winter, abnormally hot summer, very wet in places during Autumn.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIQX9UhOhwU&t=121s

 

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The met have been steadily reducing expected wind speeds for central Scotland over the last day or so with top gusts only around 45mph here which is barely worth a yellow warning.Ali had gusts to 65mph where i am and unless there's a big upgrade i can't see this storm getting to that level at least not through central Scotland.

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8 hours ago, Ross90 said:

The met have been steadily reducing expected wind speeds for central Scotland over the last day or so with top gusts only around 45mph here which is barely worth a yellow warning.Ali had gusts to 65mph where i am and unless there's a big upgrade i can't see this storm getting to that level at least not through central Scotland.

Looking like a non event for us in terms of wind, but serious in terms of rainfall after all that we’ve had lately.

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Looking wild for the Western Isles on Friday as the winds veer from SE to SW during Friday. More rain will come from second low following Callum Friday night into Saturday. So wind issues early Friday Ireland and western Britain, Irish Sea, North Channel, the rest of day for western Scotland. Rain concerns into Saturday as feed continues 

1010rainfrisat.png

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Is Callum the remuneration of hurricane Micheal ?? Any one know where he goes on leaving the us ?

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24 minutes ago, aggy said:

Is Callum the remuneration of hurricane Micheal ?? Any one know where he goes on leaving the us ?

No, AFAIK Callum is a deep Atlantic low, typical of Autumn. Hurricane Michael, if it makes it over here, won't arrive until early next  week I understand. 

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1 hour ago, JeffC said:

No, AFAIK Callum is a deep Atlantic low, typical of Autumn. Hurricane Michael, if it makes it over here, won't arrive until early next  week I understand. 

Michael will almost certainly hit us on Monday, whether it still has tropical status is debatable,  nothing about Michael has matched model expectations yet.

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Just noted that metoffice warning has gone to amber for rain. The setup is very similar to November 2009 during the Cumbria floods

2009-2018 comp.png

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1 hour ago, mike57 said:

Just noted that metoffice warning has gone to amber for rain. The setup is very similar to November 2009 during the Cumbria floods

2009-2018 comp.png

there is the potential for some really big rainfall totals if the fronts get stuck over in particular the Lake District - whether we get that again who knows the upgrade to amber already is of note though - pretty sure it went rain before or during the events in 2009 and 2015. We no longer have home just outside Keswick but did for the 2 previously mentioned events we never flooded as on a hill but it was a very dramatic time. In particular the 2015 event I remember seeing the Derwent river right up to the top of the flood defences in Keswick, they have glass panels in them to view the river and it was right up to the top of the pane. I do hope for the sake of the residents we are not looking at a repeat if I still had a property there I would be currently watching events very closely !

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Keeping an eye on this puppy. I'm leaving the horses out tonight and bringing them in early in the morning. They were stuck in for 2 days this week and went ballistic when they got out yesterday, damn near killed me. I'm hoping by the morning they'll be rather keen to come in. I noticed that the winds pick up through the Central belt ahead of everywhere else. That's a bit boding for me. Please keep your updates and thoughts coming, you have no idea how useful they are.

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Flood warnings info for Wales http://www.naturalresources.wales/?lang=en

Press release from Met Office about wales Amber https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/amber-rain-warning 

Netweather MR model does keep main feed of rain into S. Scot and Cumbria Isle of Man Saturday.

Like #StormDesmond this will be about the rain by the end of the weekend, even if Friday is pretty wild.

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Quick video from Jo on Storm Callum

 

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Looking like this is going to be a nasty one, EURO4 12z accumulative are a worry across Wales/Cornwall/NW

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Sat 24 showing what looks like a sting jet ,could be rough for western  Ireland 

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Winds starting to pick up. Rain looks the main concern. Amber alert for South Wales.

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1 hour ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Winds starting to pick up. Rain looks the main concern. Amber alert for South Wales.

Yes looks very wet for Wales and SouthWest England in particular flooding is likely by Saturday.

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