Hurricane Michael

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I don't have any relevant qualifications to speak of, I have no training or experience in met-type stuff so just ignore me if you want to, but something about this bunny has me concerned. Conditions seem to be right for it to absolutely bomb.

Has me a bit jumpy to be sure! The water temps off the coast mean it has fuel to maintain , or even continue intensifying?, as it makes landfall then there is the 'feed' of moisture from the ocean even when its eye is ashore?

The speed of its development, and expected arrival, is leading to issues with folk making preparations to either hunker down or evacuate with the 'last minute' crew battling with everyone else for what is on the shelves/in the petrol station tanks.

Let us see how things look once the sun is up!

[FetchCB]

1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I don't have any relevant qualifications to speak of, I have no training or experience in met-type stuff so just ignore me if you want to, but something about this bunny has me concerned. Conditions seem to be right for it to absolutely bomb.

The forecast does call for Rapid Intensification ( 30 Knots in 24 hrs).

 

[FetchCB]

6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Has me a bit jumpy to be sure! The water temps off the coast mean it has fuel to maintain , or even continue intensifying?, as it makes landfall then there is the 'feed' of moisture from the ocean even when its eye is ashore?

The speed of its development, and expected arrival, is leading to issues with folk making preparations to either hunker down or evacuate with the 'last minute' crew battling with everyone else for what is on the shelves/in the petrol station tanks.

Let us see how things look once the sun is up!

I was watching the NHC Broadcast on Facebook yesterday and what struck you was the message of how little time people had to make prteperations. Tropical storm force winds expected at midnight tonight UK time time.. a little over 13 hours.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like a monster already

[FetchCB]

Mission 10 on the outskirts of Michael

 

[Fiona Robertson]

3 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Mission 10 on the outskirts of Michael

 

They've just measured a 968.

[FetchCB]

Hurricane Camille anyone ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Camille

[Iceberg]

Yep 968-969mb. With winds just touching 90kts in the ne quad. Sw quad quite a bit weaker. 

A hurricane will often lag dvorak which is really where the winds and pressure Will be once the hurricane has responded to how it looks on sat reprensention  

He does look might good atm. And raw dvorak is even stronger at 100-110kts. 

So he say currently 90kts with potential already to go to 110kts but possibly even higher 

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

They've just measured a 968.

I think recon has spotted readings as low as 965mb, either way its poised for rapid intensification going by this image

 Intense convection on the east and northern sides of the storm, its beginning to look well defined.

[FetchCB]

As at 12.45 estimated dvorak pressure at 950mb 105knots

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt14L.html

[Fiona Robertson]

Now officially a Cat 2.

[FetchCB]

The Dvorak estimation from the site whose link I put up earlier has an estimated central pressure of 934mb . I'm not sure if there is any analysis as to the effectiveness of this automated analysis v human analysis but it does indicate that strengthening continues.

What also may be an indicator of further rapid intensification is that on the second pass of the current aircraft in Michael saw a drop in pressure from 970 to 967 in 105 mins and more importantly the eye had gone from being elliptical to circular, albeit open in SW 

 

[summer blizzard]

964mb, flight level winds at 119KT.

He be a major very soon.

[SMU]

Could we get a run at mid end 4?

Ocean heat content very high in the next 24 hours / low shear..

Edited October 9, 2018 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

Last few frames of IR has seen the dry air gradually being squeezed out as the convection wraps around from the WNW

[Fiona Robertson]

They've mentioned the possibility of a Cat 4 at landfall, but more likely a 3. We'll see. I think they're underestimating this thing.

[SMU]

Last hour or so change in appearence

Dry air intrusion gone

Convection wrapped

Eye becoming circular

[Daniel*]

 

[summer blizzard]

Eyewall is now closed.

Euro drops to 934mb (cat 4).

This is the real deal folks, like Harvey and Charley, a cane that is still bombing at landfall.

[summer blizzard]

Gust in eastern eyewall reported at 134mph.

[Fiona Robertson]

Is it just me or is it slightly further west than anticipated?

 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Eyewall is now closed.

Euro drops to 934mb (cat 4).

This is the real deal folks, like Harvey and Charley, a cane that is still bombing at landfall.

& Models also slowing its foreward momentum down slightly giving more time for intensification...

[summer blizzard]

Check out the goes 17 sat, can see all three systems.

[Iceberg]

Both raw and adjusted Dvorak are clear cat 4 120-125kts predictions. 

 

I dint think hes there yet but very likely prior landfall 

[summer blizzard]