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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Last pressure was a bit lower than that Steve. Even a bad vdm drop has 945mb. 

The eye is clearing and the deeper convection is wrapping around the eye again so more intensification occurring.  

Despite this the affects at are now being felt on the panhandle as the cdo starts to come ashore. 

A classic pinhole eye. 

23F7A503-1A32-47FA-A158-FA34C641CA8F.png

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Folk need to realise how vanishingly rare an October Cat 4 is. Michael looks likely to come ashore as a record breaker.

With even warmer waters on its final approach there is still a potential for further strengthening.

If it does prove costly for the U.S. expect further debate about how much AGW has impacted the storms development/strength. After the ipcc report this could really put the cat among trumps denialati?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

A true Monster of a hurricane is upon America how come the forecast was wrong for a cat 2/1? And can it strengthen to cat 5 before landfall?

It is less than 20mph off reaching Cat5 but it does have a chance of making that up over the coming hours.

It truly is a monster of a storm!

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives

Looking at the radar in the last couple of frames it looks like Michael has started the turn to the North East

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Let's not forget Harvey jumped from cat2 to cat4 as it approached the coast and got over those 'bath tub warm' waters. It is now looking like Michael will arrive at a Cat5 'cane.

This is mad!

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
13 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Looking at the radar in the last couple of frames it looks like Michael has started the turn to the North East

Haven't seen it personally, but could just be a wobble? The strong ones (especially the RI ones) do that sometimes.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m

Jeff piotrowski on is video feed just said a strong Cat 4 160 mile per Hr wind. Boarder line cat 5 on landfall!

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks
1 minute ago, Love Snow said:

Jeff piotrowski on is video feed just said a strong Cat 4 160 mile per Hr wind. Boarder line cat 5 on landfall!

(160mph would officially be a 5)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
2 hours ago, Iceberg said:

The storm is starting to become a once a lifetime occurrence. 

This is not a forecast and their isn’t time for things to change much. Once the cdo reaches the coast it will be too late for any safe evacuations. 

Latest sat shows it approaching. 

I know that dvorak seems to be overestimating things but raw dvorak is still increasing and is now 7.3. Easily cat 5 sustaining. And highest dvorak of the year of any storm. 

Re the ec above its sustained gusts of 150mph seems insane however it had min pressure in the 940s. This is already too high and even that is underestimating things. 

Recon are just moving north to take a pass thru the ne quad. 

87DA0E4B-7E7C-4BCD-8D29-E3464DA802F5.png

Only for the location. 

Charley 04 although it started in the Carribean had a similar path and bombed on approach. 

Harvey last year was epic and going for it all the way up to landfall (still marginally prefer him to Matthew). 

Nice to see something approaching a coast and not chocking on dry air like Florence though. 

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

last up to date pressure was 947-MB

we will get close to CAT 5 -

However of more importance is whether hes stable at landfall ( or worst case still trying to intensify )

For the region it hits it could be Katrinaesque in terms of damage...

Katrina was larger so i doubt we can match the storm surge but for the Panama City area this will be worse for structural damage. Systems that strengthen on approach keep higher gusts (up to 175mph) so this will feel every bit as bad as anything they can remember. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
7 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Jeff piotrowski on is video feed just said a strong Cat 4 160 mile per Hr wind. Boarder line cat 5 on landfall!

Just watching him on periscope...he is talking that there are still lots of people including elderly still in mobile homes on the coast !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Yes I fear this may well become a category 5 storm. How well prepared are people given this storm popped up at such short notice? I haven't heard much about it on the news here whereas with Florence everyone seemed aware well in advance.

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Posted
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
  • Location: Morley Leeds (West Yorkshire) 166m
Just now, FetchCB said:

Just watching him on periscope...he is talking that there are still lots of people including elderly still in mobile homes on the coast !!!

Just been watching myself

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes I fear this may well become a category 5 storm. How well prepared are people given this storm popped up at such short notice? I haven't heard much about it on the news here whereas with Florence everyone seemed aware well in advance.

When you have a president who talks about fake media , conservative commentators who talk about a deep government global warming conspiracy overstating hurricanes and a population who voted 70-80% for Trump , messages of impending disaster are probably falling on deaf ears

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
7 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Just watching him on periscope...he is talking that there are still lots of people including elderly still in mobile homes on the coast !!!

Wow thats one powerful lens    You're right though  alerts being issued all over the Affected regions

ALERT BAY: Conditions are rapidly deteriorating. Winds are now 140 miles per hour for Hurricane Michael. Zones A, B, and C, persons in mobile homes and low-lying areas, you have ONE HOUR to get to Rutherford High School to seek shelter.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Folk need to realise how vanishingly rare an October Cat 4 is. Michael looks likely to come ashore as a record breaker.

With even warmer waters on its final approach there is still a potential for further strengthening.

If it does prove costly for the U.S. expect further debate about how much AGW has impacted the storms development/strength. After the ipcc report this could really put the cat among trumps denialati?

Cat 4 in October is not that rare, remember that October is still regarded as peak season. 

Gonzales 14 - Cat 4

Joaquin 15 (my fav of the last few years) - Cat 5

Matthew 16 - Cat 5

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

A true Monster of a hurricane is upon America how come the forecast was wrong for a cat 2/1? And can it strengthen to cat 5 before landfall?

The system only formed on Saturday and models are notorious at forecasting tropical systems poorly before they actually form. When it did form the intensity guidance was modest and even the more aggressive global models were only going cat 3 at most. 

Only about 2 days ago did the Euro and HWRF especially start to forecast what we see now and they even backed off a little before coming back in yesterdays runs. 

Simply put the NHC can only rely on the models and only two of them (fairly late on) really wanted to gung ho. Even GFS was capping out at cat 3 yesterday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Can anybody link me to a decent news stream of him.

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Cat 4 in October is not that rare, remember that October is still regarded as peak season. 

Gonzales 14 - Cat 4

Joaquin 15 (my fav of the last few years) - Cat 5

Matthew 16 - Cat 5

The system only formed on Saturday and models are notorious at forecasting tropical systems poorly before they actually form. When it did form the intensity guidance was modest and even the more aggressive global models were only going cat 3 at most. 

Only about 2 days ago did the Euro and HWRF especially start to forecast what we see now and they even backed off a little before coming back in yesterdays runs. 

Simply put the NHC can only rely on the models and only two of them (fairly late on) really wanted to gung ho. Even GFS was capping out at cat 3 yesterday. 

I think the biggest issue was that the NHC guided by the models expected the wind shear that affected Michael up until yesterday to have inhibited development.

Any intensification being from a tropical storm to a cat 1 or 2 but instead it kept growing and then hit the GOM as a cat 1/2 moving into the most conducive environment possible for hurricanes

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Can anyone shed any light on why this is getting virtually no media coverage? The BBC was all over Florence yet Michael doesn't get a single mention on their front page!

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