Hurricane Michael

[Zephyr]

Eye clearing out rapidly now, scary times was not expecting this storm to go the way it has. Have followed it all day and just amazed how its gone this way.

 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Zephyr

[Fiona Robertson]

Got a 948 and a 126 mph few minutes ago. It's gonna make it to Cat 4, I can feel it in me water.

[Gael_Force]

 

[Zephyr]

4 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Anyone got any decent web cam links?

https://pwillys.com/beach-cam/ should come in handy over the next 16 hours or so

[Fiona Robertson]

5 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

https://pwillys.com/beach-cam/ should come in handy over the next 16 hours or so

Thank you so much! I can find all sorts of weird and wonderful sites in hidden corners of the net, but for some reason I really suck at finding live webcams. No matter what I try I end up with utter rubbish.

[matty40s]

Noaa latest. ..

Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael
is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until
landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the
hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with
the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less
hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's
forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. 

 

 

 

Looks like it could also affect UK next Monday 

[Zephyr]

The eye is coming in to range of the Northwest Florida long range radar now still moving in a north or slight nnw motion thought we'd see some nne movement by now?

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=evx&loop=yes

Edited October 10, 2018 by Zephyr

[summer blizzard]

Hwfr landfalls at 18z at 925mb.

[The PIT]

Like how the bbc title the hurricane. I wonder what they would called the likes of Wilma.

[Iceberg]

According to officials nhc update Michael is now 947mb 125mph. Bearing down on Panama City. 

Slider shows a very strong system still intensifying as deeper convection raps around the eye yet again. 

As nhc mention in the latest update dvorak doesn’t seem to be too acccurate. However current dvorak  would support a cat 5 hurricane. 

Recon flight winds are increasing  I think best yet are 130kts, but recon has not been recent and new recon data should be interesting  

 

[Despicable Weather]

5 hours ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Anyone got any decent web cam links?

https://www.downtownapalachicola.com/downtown-webcam/

Not a beach one, from what I can see now in the darkness but this is in the predicted landfall area. So could be ok for viewing tomorrow, if it remains streaming!

[Iceberg]

Pressure down to 942.9mb so still falling quite rapidly. 

Sub 940 pretty certain prior landfall    

No winds yet from the ne quad. 

[Iceberg]

Pressure now 941 just recorded. Some insane se quad flight winds of 136kts.  But several over 130kts

given the ne quad is normally stronger then 140-145kt flight winds seems conservative  

given all this he is probably a cat 4 and still strengthening  

 

[SMU]

CAT 4 dead cert -

CAT 5.... ?? All parameters falling into place .....

[Iceberg]

Flash update from nhc. 

...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...

[Iceberg]

3hr gust winds from the ec just rolling out. 

These are mph. 

Michael is certainly going to have the biggest wind affects of any hurricane this year. Storm surge too will obviously be a problem. 

[Iceberg]

For comparison a chart from September same details for hurricane Florence. 

Winds are forecast to be considerably higher than Florence re same timeframes. 

Florence managed to mess up an erc and so the core was ragged prior landfall. 

It looks like Michael will be strengthening prior landfall will a strong core. 

at least  atm 

[Iceberg]

The storm is starting to become a once a lifetime occurrence. 

This is not a forecast and their isn’t time for things to change much. Once the cdo reaches the coast it will be too late for any safe evacuations. 

Latest sat shows it approaching. 

I know that dvorak seems to be overestimating things but raw dvorak is still increasing and is now 7.3. Easily cat 5 sustaining. And highest dvorak of the year of any storm. 

Re the ec above its sustained gusts of 150mph seems insane however it had min pressure in the 940s. This is already too high and even that is underestimating things. 

Recon are just moving north to take a pass thru the ne quad. 

Edited October 10, 2018 by Iceberg

[JeffC]

8 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

The storm is starting to become a once a lifetime occurrence. 

This is not a forecast and their isn’t time for things to change much. Once the cdo reaches the coast it will be too late for any safe evacuations. 

Latest sat shows it approaching. 

I know that dvorak seems to be overestimating things but raw dvorak is still increasing and is now 7.3. Easily cat 5 sustaining. And highest dvorak of the year of any storm. 

Re the ec above its sustained gusts of 150mph seems insane however it had min pressure in the 940s. This is already too high and even that is underestimating things. 

Recon are just moving north to take a pass thru the ne quad. 

Not wishing to be flippant given the seriousness of the situation but is it just me who thinks this pic makes it look like a malevolent budgie? 

[FetchCB]

According NOAA Radio... Unprecedented Hurricane for Florida Panhandle and Big Bend...No CAT4 Hurricane has hit this area before.

It will redraw the the coastline and the worst case scenario re Storm surge flooding now being realised. 

Last chance to evacuate is now measured in the next few hours

 

[Iceberg]

2 120kts surface winds in the ne quad. Annoyingly the min pressure reading was corrupt.  

Give this somewhere between 125-140kts looks likely for landfall. 

[FetchCB]

During last nights recon pressure drop 8mb during 5 hours of sampling. 

This morning 6 hours on the current recon has extrapolated surface pressure readings at 941mb. Michael is continuing to intensify rapidly 

[Jimmyh]

Question to the fellows what is the lowest pressure recorded in a hurricane like this. Could it go lower as it reaches land because it still seems to be intensifying 

[FetchCB]

8 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Question to the fellows what is the lowest pressure recorded in a hurricane like this. Could it go lower as it reaches land because it still seems to be intensifying 

Hurricane Rita in 2005 895mb Followed by Katrina 902mb also in 2005

[SMU]

last up to date pressure was 947-MB

we will get close to CAT 5 -

However of more importance is whether hes stable at landfall ( or worst case still trying to intensify )

For the region it hits it could be Katrinaesque in terms of damage...