Hurricane Michael

[Iceberg]

Close up from ramb slider visual and ir. 

very impressive to the north, but the southern quads are still weak. 

Smaller possible pinhole eye developing with traces of smaller eyewall in the se quad. 

[Ice Day]

No doubt this is a fast moving event.  Reported that wave heights 'will exceed 40 foot' in the GoM, this could be a big deal!?

[Iceberg]

Pin really starting to become clear with firing towers in the se in the newly formed eyewall very quickly developing from the small traces only 30-45 mins ago. 

[HighPressure]

Just a couple of days ago Michael didn't even exist, I don't know how rare it is for Hurricanes to form so late, and grow so quickly, he was a Cat1 yesterday, a Cat2 on last pass and as others have stated could hit as a Cat4 in less than 24hrs. I am no expert but watching these form this year via NHC says this one is unusual?       

[Iceberg]

Continues to get better on sat ir. 

[Iceberg]

Recon pass just now pressure 958mb and flight winds in the weakest se quad 109kts. 

Given this 105kts seems realistic from nhc in 10-20mins. But 120-125kts possible next 12-24hrs. 

[FetchCB]

 

12 minutes ago, HighPressure said:

Just a couple of days ago Michael didn't even exist, I don't know how rare it is for Hurricanes to form so late, and grow so quickly, he was a Cat1 yesterday, a Cat2 on last pass and as others have stated could hit as a Cat4 in less than 24hrs. I am no expert but watching these form this year via NHC says this one is unusual?       

I wouldn't say that its late in the season but as you can see from the link the origin and path is most likely

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori

I think the rapid intensification itself is not unparalleled ( see Camille in 1969, it had a similar initial track) but what is unusual is that Michael survived so well against the westerly shear that the models indicated would cause weakening initially and therefore a less powerful hurricane at landfall.

The models do seem to have struggled with intensity at times over the last couple of years

[Ice Day]

Wind speeds still increasing, still a Cat 2 though

John Dissauer‏Verified account @johndissauer 4m4 minutes agoore

Hurricane Hunter recon flight just detected winds of 115 mph at 9,500ft in #HurricaneMichael. Adjusted to the surface it is a 97 mph wind. #INwx #FLwx #ALwx

 

Edited October 9, 2018 by Ice Day

[Iceberg]

16 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Recon pass just now pressure 958mb and flight winds in the weakest se quad 109kts. 

Given this 105kts seems realistic from nhc in 10-20mins. But 120-125kts possible next 12-24hrs. 

And nhc update. A MAJOR hurricane now  

The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and
infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a
little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has
continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of
the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited
the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane
Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and
reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a
minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours.
Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of
115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial
intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.

[Iceberg]

The eye is really being squashed by the convective burst. 

[biggreyface]

4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

The eye is really being squashed by the convective burst. 

Is this likely to have any impact on the intensification of this system 

[summer blizzard]

957mb and 120mph based on a reading in the se quad.

NE quad will be sampled soon and may perhaps be stronger.

[FetchCB]

Not sure I really can make sense of the latest discussion from NHC.

It raises the intensity to 105 knots and goes on to talk about additional strengthening over the next 12 to 18 hours but then

"The new NHC intensity forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt"

 

[summer blizzard]

Nhc are following the consensus models which won't be as bullish as Euro/hwrf, hence betting on a modest peak.

Dropsonde is reporting 134mph at 946mb so not far to mix down.

[Iceberg]

8 minutes ago, biggreyface said:

Is this likely to have any impact on the intensification of this system 

The eye is stringing. Which will lead to some big pressure drops imo. In turn a tighter grad. So a sharp small eye wall once convective banding has finished. 

[mezzacyclone]

I`d LOVE to know current cloud top temps?

[Gael_Force]

45 minutes ago, mezzacyclone said:

I`d LOVE to know current cloud top temps?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=ir

 

[mezzacyclone]

958mb (26.03N 86.42W) prev dropsonde was E longtitude of last 951mb ( 26.333N 86.483W) centre so no NE turn as yet?

obv alarming pressure RI drop on hunter SW sweep?

 

[summer blizzard]

Yup, bombs away in terms of pressure.

[HighPressure]

I see he is now a Cat 3 with further strengthening expected over the next 12 hrs.. 

[mezzacyclone]

13 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Yup, bombs away in terms of pressure.

hot (pink) towers prior to 7mb drop?,(lost a good old link to accurate fast strato temps)

apols as above 951mb remark is NOT official therefore suspect? (extrapolated)

Edited October 9, 2018 by mezzacyclone
accuracy

[Fiona Robertson]

Is it just me or is it further west than anticipated?

 

[mezzacyclone]

1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Is it just me or is it further west than anticipated?

 

agree, still ne E turn?

4 sooner or later before landfall? (GOM cookin pot in its optimum)

[Fiona Robertson]

Recent wind speed 113.9 mph, pressure 954 and it's still a long way from land.

 

[Fiona Robertson]

Anyone got any decent web cam links?