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We now have Tropical Depression 14 moving slowly north and forecast to become a hurricane before landfall in around three days. 

Track is between New Orleans and the Panhandle, strength is variable but low end hurricane most likely. 

gfs_midRH_watl_14.png

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[Key Messages]

 

Now exists as tropical storm Michael

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As said now Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical storm winds expand 200 miles from the center so quite a large system.

GFS and Euro both go cat 3, 950 and 953mb at landfall. 

Onshore flow into Cuba and Florida will provide some extreme rain totals too.

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Oh boy are things getting good.

..

To start with, recon 40 minutes ago found 984mb and 58KT (that's an 11mb drop since 6 hours ago).

Secondly both the Euro and HWRF go for a hit on the Panhandle.. at category 4.

Best system since Harvey at landfall in all possibility.

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Some of the model runs fetch a very big storm in very close to N.O.?

This might turn interesting!

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Well I think the thread needs a name change and folk need a 'heads up' to the storm and its potential to cause a pretty big mess in either panhandle of mid west coast Florida!

With such a short time until it arrives folk in threatened areas are already stripping stores in their rush to 'prep' and queues for petrol are also now occurring.

It looks likely to come in as either a cat2 or up to cat4?

.As it is it has 'threaded the needle' with the eye looking to stay over open water as it heads into the Gulf.

Plenty of hot water in front of it so we might expect it to bomb over the coming 24hrs giving us a better idea of its strength at landfall whilst still 24 hrs before its due to hit.

Sadly some models show it exiting into the Atlantic over S.C. giving them a deluge as they recover from their storm a month ago?

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Good grief, I take a two day break and hurricane Michael appears out of nowhere!

I hope something gets in the way of its development because this storm looks worrying. Reminds me of hurricane Matthew in 2016 - it seems to be one of those situations where this hurricane can intensify very rapidly. 

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Good grief, I take a two day break and hurricane Michael appears out of nowhere!

I hope something gets in the way of its development because this storm looks worrying. Reminds me of hurricane Matthew in 2016 - it seems to be one of those situations where this hurricane can intensify very rapidly. 

I was wondering what the temp of the Gulf waters are re historical temps, ie are they warmer or cooler than is normal for this time of year?

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2 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I was wondering what the temp of the Gulf waters are re historical temps, ie are they warmer or cooler than is normal for this time of year?

anoma.10.4.2018.gif Generally above average unfortunately, notably so in the Northern portion of the Gulf

 

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

anoma.10.4.2018.gif Generally above average unfortunately, notably so in the Northern portion of the Gulf

 

Oh... that is boding...

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As said, now a Hurricane and so far east of its forecast position that it might actually make a technical landfall in Cuba.

30 mile closed eyewall. A little ragged but hot towers in and around it so definitely trying to strengthen.

Currently dragging in some mid level dry air to the south which is why it looks a little bandy to its east but that should tighten and give it more protection.

Nhc now on board for cat 3 at landfall as we await tonights runs.

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Tonights Euro is 947mb near Panama City, Florida.

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=vis

Explosive development for the area north of cuba an hour or so ago ( the delay on the images updating?)

This could be a bit of a night as it drifts clear of Cuba's influence and settles over the warmer waters of the gulf proper!

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@Gray-Wolf

Nice link that,cheers,it shows them cloudtops rotating anti-clockwise now and can clearly see the eye vis at the end of the loop.

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Michael   could  be interesting   cat3  now

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978mb, less than 20 miles from eastern Cuba so they'll be right in the eyewall (legit cat 1 conditions you'd imagine). 

goes16_truecolor_14L_201810081950.jpg?21

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Michael is looking healthy this morning with 90mph winds and further strengthening expected during the day.

The track still takes him to the Florida Panhandle.so no variation there.

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15 minutes ago, karyo said:

Michael is looking healthy this morning with 90mph winds and further strengthening expected during the day.

The track still takes him to the Florida Panhandle.so no variation there.

Indeed, the overnight discussion seems to imply that the NHC have been caught off guard by Michael

 

Quote
Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant
 

 

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Posted (edited)

Hearing reports that SLP at the centre of the hurricane has dipped to 955mb with sustained winds of 97.2 knots which would imply its a high end category 2.

Hope these aren't true as that would imply some seriously rapid intensification but we will find out soon enough....

EDIT: That was according to a dvorak analysis, the most recent update still has it at 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 973mb, why such a discrepancy?

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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59 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Indeed, the overnight discussion seems to imply that the NHC have been caught off guard by Michael

 


 

 

I don't have any relevant qualifications to speak of, I have no training or experience in met-type stuff so just ignore me if you want to, but something about this bunny has me concerned. Conditions seem to be right for it to absolutely bomb.

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Hearing reports that SLP at the centre of the hurricane has dipped to 955mb with sustained winds of 97.2 knots which would imply its a high end category 2.

Hope these aren't true as that would imply some seriously rapid intensification but we will find out soon enough....

EDIT: That was according to a dvorak analysis, the most recent update still has it at 90 mph and a minimum pressure of 973mb, why such a discrepancy?

Dvorak Analysis is the analysis of visible and InfraRed satellite representation against a baseline set of images. It is an estimation only.

 

 

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