Winter 2018/19

[coldie]

49 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Here are some of Accuweather's recent winter forecasts...make of them what you will.

 

You missed out 15-16

[Radiating Dendrite]

Updated Accu Forecast, just released.

 

In all seriousness though, their attempts at this are a complete joke. We are either wet or stormy, the one time they opted for something different in 15/16 (cold spells) the winter was the 3rd warmest on record.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Radiating Dendrite

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Updated Accu Forecast, just released.

 

In all seriousness though, their attempts at this are a complete joke. We are either wet or stormy, the one time they opted for something different in 15/16 (cold spells) the winter was the 3rd warmest on record.

Jan-march 16 was cooler and drier to be fair.

[BruenSryan]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

Jan-march 16 was cooler and drier to be fair.

January and February 2016 were still very wet months and January had exceptional mild conditions later on.

[Mapantz]

I wonder why people have started bashing weather companies long range forecasts? Let's be fair here, there's been quite a few members on here who have posted their long range forecasts in the past and have gotten them either partly wrong, or catastrophically wrong. The official Netweather Winter forecasts haven't always gone to plan either.. each individual/group will see things differently and base a forecast on their own knowledge - they won't all come to the same conclusion. There's also a minority in the hardened cold camp who are likely to be the ones to be doing the ridiculing because it doesn't show what they want to see.

[Roger J Smith]

Here are a few more encouraging factoids:

After hot summers of 1976 and 1826, winters produced more cold than mild spells. Dec 1976 was cold almost all the time. Feb 1827 would be more remembered had it stayed below freezing for an average, just escaping with three milder days at the end (CET was -0.5 as late as 25th). 

After the cold spell late Feb early March 1785 the next winter produced plenty of cold and had an even colder day in early March of 1786 than the records it set in 1785. 

[Snowyowl9]

Coldest October snap for 10 years is showing up now.

Edited October 20, 2018 by Snowyowl9

[Summer Sun]

A cold winter incoming?

Winter 2018/19 update 3

Summary

Since the last update in September the TWO view is the chance of winter 2018/19 being cold or very cold has increased. Despite recent climatology favouring milder conditions some of the seasonal models, background signals and the increased propensity for high pressure blocking to form since the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in February suggest otherwise.

At this stage the TWO view is there an elevated chance of winter 2018/19 being colder (or possibly much colder) than average.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=4557&title=A+cold+winter+incoming?

[Froze were the Days]

from 5% to 10%

[summer blizzard]

Still undecided myself. Solar activity favours average to cold. Weak to moderate Nino favours average to cold. 

Nino and +qbo is a very bad combination however and the PDO has become less negative. 

16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Here are a few more encouraging factoids:

After hot summers of 1976 and 1826, winters produced more cold than mild spells. Dec 1976 was cold almost all the time. Feb 1827 would be more remembered had it stayed below freezing for an average, just escaping with three milder days at the end (CET was -0.5 as late as 25th). 

After the cold spell late Feb early March 1785 the next winter produced plenty of cold and had an even colder day in early March of 1786 than the records it set in 1785. 

Sadly the link overall is weak statistically.

4 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Coldest October snap for 10 years is showing up now.

Are we sure the 2012 northerly was not as cold.

[Don]

Gavs Weather Vids CFS V2 six month outlook.  Not too pretty for those wanting a cold winter.....

 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Gavs Weather Vids CFS V2 six month outlook.  Not too pretty for those wanting a cold winter.....

 

I must admit I am getting that gut sinking feeling about this winter. To all intents and purposes I should be feeling positive but something just tells me this is going to be one of those frustrating winters where the Atlantic is 'just' strong enough to stop the intense cold just across the north sea. Gut feeling, that's all!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

I must admit I am getting that gut sinking feeling about this winter. To all intents and purposes I should be feeling positive but something just tells me this is going to be one of those frustrating winters where the Atlantic is 'just' strong enough to stop the intense cold just across the north sea. Gut feeling, that's all!

As far as gut feelings go, I've been seeing the number 46 and occasionally 47 quite a lot for some time now which is weird (when checking the time and battery power remaining on my kindle and such). Maybe it means we're heading for a Winter on the scale of 1946/47. Or maybe I'm just going mad .

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Wow, apparently that was the 162nd reply as well (this the 163rd) along with 19,362 views. Those are some pretty good numbers there, even 19 shows up. That's got to be a cert now .

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Wow, apparently that was the 162nd reply as well (this the 163rd) along with 19,362 views. Those are some pretty good numbers there, even 19 shows up. That's got to be a cert now .

I really do hope that your gut reactions fair better than mine ha ha  

[Walsall Wood Snow]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I really do hope that your gut reactions fair better than mine ha ha  

Battery power on kindle 62% a d you posted 19 minutes ago and I'm not joking, just keeps getting better .

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Time is 00:46 as well. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Must have done at least 47 online matches on the Switch version of Mario Kart tonight . And I think it must have been about 19 times where I made some really silly mistakes. 

Yep, no doubt a really cold Winter is coming! 

[Snowyowl9]

15 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

 

Are we sure the 2012 northerly was not as cold.

Looks like that one went off my radar,it was a dry one lasted 1 day.

This one coming now looks lasting longer.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The northerly blast of 26/27 October 2012 brought my old home town of South Shields its first October snowfall since 1992.  I was living in the Vale of York near Thirsk at the time, just far east enough to catch the showers, and it was briefly cold enough for a dusting of snow there that night, but I don't think October snowfall is as rare in that part of the country - it certainly snowed around Thirsk on 30 October 2000 and probably in late October 2008 as well.  The one that is currently forecast looks about as cold as the 2012 one and less cold than the 2008 one, but as others have said, this one will probably last a day or two longer than the 2012 northerly.

I am still envisaging a cold cyclonic November as per the N-W autumn forecast, possibly with some further northerlies, but don't have many ideas yet on how winter 2018/19 will pan out. 

Edited October 21, 2018 by Thundery wintry showers

[bluearmy]

17 hours ago, Don said:

Gavs Weather Vids CFS V2 six month outlook.  Not too pretty for those wanting a cold winter.....

 

Luckily it’s the CFSv2 which verifies just behind my favourite piece of seaweed .........

Edited October 21, 2018 by bluearmy

[damianslaw]

10 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

The northerly blast of 26/27 October 2012 brought my old home town of South Shields its first October snowfall since 1992.  I was living in the Vale of York near Thirsk at the time, just far east enough to catch the showers, and it was briefly cold enough for a dusting of snow there that night, but I don't think October snowfall is as rare in that part of the country - it certainly snowed around Thirsk on 30 October 2000 and probably in late October 2008 as well.  The one that is currently forecast looks about as cold as the 2012 one and less cold than the 2008 one, but as others have said, this one will probably last a day or two longer than the 2012 northerly.

I am still envisaging a cold cyclonic November as per the N-W autumn forecast, possibly with some further northerlies, but don't have many ideas yet on how winter 2018/19 will pan out. 

Shouldn't pattern match, but a number of northerly episodes in late October in many of the last 20 years have preceded generally cold or at least non-dominant atlantic winters. 2000 was quite a cold winter at least in the north, 2008 was followed by an episodic winter with some lengthy wintry periods, early Dec, late Dec/early Jan and again early Feb, 2010 followed by the very cold late Nov - early Jan period, 2012 was followed by again a cold start to the winter, further cold weather in Jan and generally consistent cold in Feb and then the very cold March.

The last five Octobers have been devoid of any northerlies in late October, and much mild weather has been the theme.

I'm encouraged by the synoptics on offer for the end of the month - a time when the atlantic in an average year normally ramps up a gear. However, a much better promising signal for those hoping for colder weather to win out in winter, is for a blocked ineffectual atlantic in late Nov/early Dec, when the atlantic should be on turbo charge - often a sign things aren't normal, last year delivered quite a blocked atlantic as such stage, 2016 also, but it waned rapidly, 2012, 2010, 2008 saw blocked conditions hold into the second week of December. 1995 and 1996 also saw blocked conditions hold sway.

 

Edited October 21, 2018 by damianslaw

[Norrance]

Someone earlier mentioned ssts in the North Sea being too high for snow. Does anyone know what the ssts were like in October 2012 and 2008, both of which brought snow showers to low levels (widely in 2008)? I had snow falling here at sea level both years though admittedly just a flurry in 2012. 

Edited October 21, 2018 by Norrance

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

38 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Someone earlier mentioned ssts in the North Sea being too high for snow. Does anyone know what the ssts were like in October 2012 and 2008, both of which brought snow showers to low levels (widely in 2008)? I had snow falling here at sea level both years though admittedly just a flurry in 2012. 

Not sure if these help 

2008 -  

2012 -  

latest sst chart  does look like the current sst's are a lot cooler to the north/ north west of the uk than they were in 2012, although there was some cool water in 08, current chart looks warmer to the east/se of the uk

Edited October 21, 2018 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[summer blizzard]

With regards to the model thread debate on strat-trop coupling it is true that in 2016 and 2017 there was always a danger that a good trop could give way to an agressive strat (2016 especially we saw a zonal wind rebound) however it is worth noting that even with the unfavourable enso-qbo combination the one advantage we have this year is the potential for MJO assistance as we see waves able to move over the basin.