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syed2878

Winter 2018/19

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You can still have it hot in Southern Europe and with High pressure but then have a trough over France and an Easterly into UK - there are many different combinations you can have, its not always simple.

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If that's in reference to the Accu-weather forecast, I don't think they are implying an easterly regime for the UK there, though. But I agree, lots of combinations can occur. 

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To be fair, I don't think any 'profesional' forecaster would be so bullish to forecast a dominance of easterly air during Winter into the UK anyway, especially this far out. I could be wrong,but it seems they'd rather play it safe to me, in which case if such was to ever occur we'd be unlikely to hear of it from them until it was almost upon us, which would be advertised by the models long before we heard about it from them.

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The good thing about accuweather is that you can see how their previous winter forecasts fared. Still, they at least stick their neck out and do it.

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I don't think we should be taking any long range forecasts as the gospel. Lessons should've been learnt by now! But the one thing im sure of this winter is it will be alot colder and darker :D
 

 

 

 

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Thought I would switch gears a bit and delve into raw statistics for a while.

As you know, the winter season (D J F) mean CET temps in recent years have been around 5 Dec, 4 Jan and Feb, and longer term more like 4, 3 and 3, so the long-term seasonal average has been drifting erratically upwards mostly from the Maunder period to modern times. So back in the earlier part of the record, a cold winter would average about 2.0 or lower. Since about 1900, winters of 3.0 or lower can be considered cold. 

Since the very cold winters of 1894-95 and 1916-17 (1.2 and 1.5 respectively) the only winters to beat them were 1946-47 at 1.1, and then 1962-63 at --0.4. Only two winters were colder than that (1683-84 was -1.2 and 1739-40 was -0.4). The next three coldest (in chronological order) after 1917 would be 1928-29 (1.7), 1939-40 (1.5) and 1978-79 (1.6). The coldest winter since then was 2009-10 (2.4). 

The number of winters that averaged 3.0 or lower in each 30 year interval starting with 1661 to 1690 (the first two in the CET included a partial one that was milder, although we don't have Dec 1658, and a colder one in 1659-60 which averaged 2.0) went from frequent in the Maunder to infrequent in the warmer mid-18th century then back to frequent from 1755 to 1895, very infrequent from then to 1939, then somewhat less so but with irregular variations through the mid-20th century and very infrequent after that; the list looks like this:

1661-1690 _14 ____ ____1841-1870 _ 8

1691-1720 _ 8 ____ ____ 1871-1900 _11

1721-1750 _ 4 ____ ____ 1901-1930 _ 2

1751-1780 _14 ____ ____1931-1960 _ 7

1781-1810 _13 ____ ____1961-1990 _ 5

1811-1840 _ 8 ____ ____ 1991-2018 _ 3

The chances of such a winter have steadily fallen from more or less one in three odds for much of the first three centuries of the records, to less than one in five since then. Is this all due to the AGW signal? Probably not, because there were two other significant cold-free intervals. From the cold winter of 1715-16 to the very cold winter of 1739-40, there were only two winters that averaged below 3.0, those being 1728-29 (1.7) and 1730-31 (2.5). So that was two out of 23 winters in that stretch, similar to what we've seen since the mid-1990s. Then there was an interval between 1895 and 1917 with no really cold winters (0 out of 21 in that case, there were two at 3.1). The longest interval without a 3.0 or below winter in the Maunder first half-century of the records appears to be ten (from 1699 to 1708) but before that, it was rare to have even two in a row, three in 1686 to 1688 being the longest before the ten year stretch. The longest in the Dalton and the cold interval before that began, let's say from 1770 to 1845, was six consecutive from 1832 to 1837. As with the Maunder, it was rare to see even two consecutive above 3.0 through much of that interval. 

What does this mean for our winter ahead? A pessimist would say it reduces the chances of a cold winter. An optimist would say we are overdue for a really cold one. The longest wait for a winter at or below 1.5 before the current impending winter's 56 years (since 1963) was 34 years from winter 1844-45 (1.5) to 1878-79 (0.7). The longest wait for a winter at or below 1.6 drops to 40 (since 1979) years. So we do seem to be running out a long string and with the solar downturn and evident propensity of this past year to produce record cold and heavy snow (if somewhat late for the cause of cold winter average) I think our chances start to look a bit better to break these strings. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Thought I would switch gears a bit and delve into raw statistics for a while.

As you know, the winter season (D J F) mean CET temps in recent years have been around 5 Dec, 4 Jan and Feb, and longer term more like 4, 3 and 3, so the long-term seasonal average has been drifting erratically upwards mostly from the Maunder period to modern times. So back in the earlier part of the record, a cold winter would average about 2.0 or lower. Since about 1900, winters of 3.0 or lower can be considered cold. 

Since the very cold winters of 1894-95 and 1916-17 (1.2 and 1.5 respectively) the only winters to beat them were 1946-47 at 1.1, and then 1962-63 at --0.4. Only two winters were colder than that (1683-84 was -1.2 and 1739-40 was -0.4). The next three coldest (in chronological order) after 1917 would be 1928-29 (1.7), 1939-40 (1.5) and 1978-79 (1.6). The coldest winter since then was 2009-10 (2.4). 

The number of winters that averaged 3.0 or lower in each 30 year interval starting with 1661 to 1690 (the first two in the CET included a partial one that was milder, although we don't have Dec 1658, and a colder one in 1659-60 which averaged 2.0) went from frequent in the Maunder to infrequent in the warmer mid-18th century then back to frequent from 1755 to 1895, very infrequent from then to 1939, then somewhat less so but with irregular variations through the mid-20th century and very infrequent after that; the list looks like this:

1661-1690 _14 ____ ____1841-1870 _ 8

1691-1720 _ 8 ____ ____ 1871-1900 _11

1721-1750 _ 4 ____ ____ 1901-1930 _ 2

1751-1780 _14 ____ ____1931-1960 _ 7

1781-1810 _13 ____ ____1961-1990 _ 5

1811-1840 _ 8 ____ ____ 1991-2018 _ 3

The chances of such a winter have steadily fallen from more or less one in three odds for much of the first three centuries of the records, to less than one in five since then. Is this all due to the AGW signal? Probably not, because there were two other significant cold-free intervals. From the cold winter of 1715-16 to the very cold winter of 1739-40, there were only two winters that averaged below 3.0, those being 1728-29 (1.7) and 1730-31 (2.5). So that was two out of 23 winters in that stretch, similar to what we've seen since the mid-1990s. Then there was an interval between 1895 and 1917 with no really cold winters (0 out of 21 in that case, there were two at 3.1). The longest interval without a 3.0 or below winter in the Maunder first half-century of the records appears to be ten (from 1699 to 1708) but before that, it was rare to have even two in a row, three in 1686 to 1688 being the longest before the ten year stretch. The longest in the Dalton and the cold interval before that began, let's say from 1770 to 1845, was six consecutive from 1832 to 1837. As with the Maunder, it was rare to see even two consecutive above 3.0 through much of that interval. 

What does this mean for our winter ahead? A pessimist would say it reduces the chances of a cold winter. An optimist would say we are overdue for a really cold one. The longest wait for a winter at or below 1.5 before the current impending winter's 56 years (since 1963) was 34 years from winter 1844-45 (1.5) to 1878-79 (0.7). The longest wait for a winter at or below 1.6 drops to 40 (since 1979) years. So we do seem to be running out a long string and with the solar downturn and evident propensity of this past year to produce record cold and heavy snow (if somewhat late for the cause of cold winter average) I think our chances start to look a bit better to break these strings. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice reasoning... Is the big gap at the end indicative of a potential white out?! 

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Text version for Accuweather

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-europe-winter-forecast-for-the-2018-2019-season/70006310

Quote

Windstorms to batter British Isles, northern Europe throughout the season

Areas from Ireland and the United Kingdom into northern France, Germany and Scandinavia will be at risk for frequent windstorms this winter.

Wet weather experienced during autumn will continue right into winter across Ireland and the United Kingdom as storms from the Atlantic bring the risk for damaging winds, flooding and travel disruptions.

The official windstorm season got off to a fast start with back-to-back named storms -- Ali and Bronagh -- in late September, followed by a third, Storm Callum, on 10 October, giving a preview of the upcoming winter.

While the season as a whole will feature more windstorms than normal, the most active part of the winter is expected from January into February.

"Some locations that will be at the highest risk for significant impacts from multiple windstorms this season includes Cardiff, Manchester, Belfast and Glasgow," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

"While there will be plenty of windstorms throughout the winter, we do not expect the Beast from the East to return. That's not to say there won't be cold and snow, but accumulating snowfall will be limited to the more typical areas," he added.

 

 

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13 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

The accuweather winter forecast is hardly inspiring! 

C6E3C703-03B7-4140-A6E5-D1768AA1A5FD.thumb.jpeg.6db3c736ad5a8132a6e677b67c4ace6a.jpeg

Very much a +NAO forecast

Thanks for posting. What on earth do accuweather mean by wet and chilly though? So vague and non-descript. 

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'Wet and Chilly' as regards to Accuweather forecast for Poland into Norway and Sweden!?!, well if that's the case it won't be wet as anything that falls from the sky is likely to be snow in those countries. Fortunately their track record isn't that 'Accu'rate.

re: @ Netweather feature on why there is so many freezing winter headlines - I thought last winter came out average over most of England (slightly milder where I live due to the mild January) but undoubtedly would have been slightly milder going by the 1961-90 stats.

2018_winter_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

Edited by Froze were the Days

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For the beauty of a printscreen, I can remember accu saying I would get some snow while other sites said nothing of the sort and it did in fact snow. Just the once, mind. If you want a laugh look at their long range, it normally predicts thunder and all sorts. Even get the old snow shower on Christmas day show up. The dream is there.

Getting a bit twitchy regarding this winter, twitter has spoken and says we will get the main cold end of November / late December. Now I am out of thunderstorm season here, I look for cold at these two months and hopefully more in December. Hubs has taken it upon himself to buy bubs 2 new coats and myself a jacket, I hope he hasn't jinxed it. 

I await this kind of forecast with bated breath.

 

 

snow.png

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4 minutes ago, Dami said:

For the beauty of a printscreen, I can remember accu saying I would get some snow while other sites said nothing of the sort and it did in fact snow. Just the once, mind. If you want a laugh look at their long range, it normally predicts thunder and all sorts. Even get the old snow shower on Christmas day show up. The dream is there.

Getting a bit twitchy regarding this winter, twitter has spoken and says we will get the main cold end of November / late December. Now I am out of thunderstorm season here, I look for cold at these two months and hopefully more in December. Hubs has taken it upon himself to buy bubs 2 new coats and myself a jacket, I hope he hasn't jinxed it. 

I await this kind of forecast with bated breath.

 

 

snow.png

With a record as 'scintillating' as that, they'll ought be heroes among the coldies? 

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46 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:

Summer 2018.

Here was their prediction :) 

downloadfile.jpg

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16 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

The accuweather winter forecast is hardly inspiring! 

C6E3C703-03B7-4140-A6E5-D1768AA1A5FD.thumb.jpeg.6db3c736ad5a8132a6e677b67c4ace6a.jpeg

Very much a +NAO forecast

The only way I can see France being wet is southerly tracking lows. A Bartlet high set-up will not lead to such a scenario. Got to say, their winter forecasts have not been that brilliant and strange at times. Almost an ignorance of what set-ups will bring. Remember that 2015-16 one! And the one that said a large number of named windstorms and we only got a very few.

Edited by Weather-history
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3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

'Wet and Chilly' as regards to Accuweather forecast for Poland into Norway and Sweden!?!, well if that's the case it won't be wet as anything that falls from the sky is likely to be snow in those countries. Fortunately their track record isn't that 'Accu'rate.

re: @ Netweather feature on why there is so many freezing winter headlines - I thought last winter came out average over most of England (slightly milder where I live due to the mild January) but undoubtedly would have been slightly milder going by the 1961-90 stats.

2018_winter_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

Cheers for your thoughts @Froze were the Days yes indeed I was thinking of Poland in my case. Just sounds silly though as I was thinking exactly the same thing as you. And you're right about last winter in the UK, people forget one brief 'Beast' doesn't define the whole winter mean temp anomalies.

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20 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Cheers for your thoughts @Froze were the Days yes indeed I was thinking of Poland in my case. Just sounds silly though as I was thinking exactly the same thing as you. And you're right about last winter in the UK, people forget one brief 'Beast' doesn't define the whole winter mean temp anomalies.

There were two beasts, a big snow event in December and frequent north westerlies which brought snow showers throughout December and January 

Edited by coldie

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