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syed2878

Winter 2018/19

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17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It certainly seems that getting warm records is far easier than cold records.

The only thing we've still never managed (yet) is a 20c day in winter

19.7c is the closest we've got back on February 13th 1998

won't be long

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

won't be long

Yep

February would be my bet for the month to do it especially with the strengthening sunshine and longer days

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18 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Yep

February would be my bet for the month to do it especially with the strengthening sunshine and longer days

after 15th, or very early Dec

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The only thing we've still never managed (yet) is a 20c day in winter

Could it happen this month?

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30 minutes ago, Don said:

 

Could it happen this month?

Position of that high will be crucial if it's sitting over us then I'd say no if it drifts east and opens up more of a southerly then possibly but I think you'd need it to last a good few days for the warmth to build

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Position of that high will be crucial if it's sitting over us then I'd say no if it drifts east and opens up more of a southerly then possibly but I think you'd need it to last a good few days for the warmth to build

The anticyclone would need to be oriented more N-S so as to drag up air from the Mediterranean, that one is more E-W and will more likely just drag mild cloudy gunk off central Europe. 

That chart is made for summer, totally wasted in Feb. 

Edited by Summer of 95

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6 hours ago, Summer of 95 said:

The anticyclone would need to be oriented more N-S so as to drag up air from the Mediterranean, that one is more E-W and will more likely just drag mild cloudy gunk off central Europe. 

That chart is made for summer, totally wasted in Feb. 

Aye but April and May, we'll get the E'lys, the way the weather works, PV virtually gone by then, must be why we get E'lys then every year

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

15.9C in Gogerddan, Ceredigion makes it the warmest February 14th in 21-years

Shame it'll never reach 15!😂

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Today was the UK's warmest day of the year so far with 16.1c at Bala, Gwynedd

Looking at the forecasts and models a few weeks ago, you would have been expecting the coldest day of the year around now!

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Current synoptics are very similiar to mid Feb 1998, which delivered the warmest max in Feb on record. We haven't quite the same degree of surface warmth compared to then though. Another spell akin to now in Feb occurred in 2008, that one brought significant diurnal range temps with exceptionally low lapse rates, some very mild maxima and frosty nights. 

Both February's were followed by cold wintry conditions in March. Last day of Feb 1998 brought a northerly with some snow and the opening days of March were quite cold with further snow for some. 

March 2008 brought cold wintry conditions in time for easter.

April 1998 and 2008 also brought cold wintry weather at times..

Not saying the same will happen this year - but quite noteworthy how those two very mild Februaries with southerlies were followed by March/Aprils with some snow and colder weather. Mother nature often balances herself out, and I've noticed how in recent years notably mild/cold conditions wet/dry conditions relative to the season have quickly been followed by the complete opposite! with sudden flips.

March 2012 / April 2012 a good example warm/dry - cold/wet

Dec 2010/opening of Jan 2011 - mid Jan-Feb 2011 cold/dry - mild/wet

Mar-June 2013 - cold followed by July 2013 very warm

Nov 2009 - very wet mild, Dec 2009-Jan 2010 very cold and dry

 

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Yes, I've been reminded of mid February 1998 recently, which interestingly was in a year with a very strong El Nino, contrasting with the weakly positive ENSO state of this year.  I had a feeling that this mild spell was also likely to be accompanied by plenty of sunshine in many parts of the country, which is relatively unusual at this time of year, and so far it has proved that way.  Mild weather accompanied by bright sunshine may also be widespread in about a week's time, but it does depend on the positioning of the high to the east.

The current setup has the high pressure further north/east which means we're not getting quite as warm an air mass as on 13/14 February 1998 but on the other hand the clear sunny weather has pushed further north today thanks to the more southerly component to the airflow (on the 13th February 1998 it got into much, but not all, of northern England, resulting in maxes of around 17C in the Tyne and Wear region, while in the south it exceeded 19C in some places, but Scotland and Northern Ireland stayed cloudy).  The February 2008 spell had the high pressure further west than this which led to the widespread high sunshine totals and colder nights.  I have fond memories of that latter spell, which I spent in Norwich, where there were some stunning sunsets.

It's hard to see a route to anything significantly colder before the back end of February now, but indeed, it could change pretty quickly as we head into March.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers

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Yep, will probably squeeze a 17c today from somewhere, after so many doubters, its nice to see this come off. It proves not to pay too much attention to what the models literally say when it comes to the temperatures...once again why human interpretation of the models is always an important element of weather forecasting, though ECM wasn't too bad.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

It's the warmest day of the year so far with 17.1c in Rhyl

And the warmest day of the year has risen again with 17.5c in Rhyl

Around 10c above average for the time of year

Edited by Summer Sun

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

And the warmest day of the year has risen again with 17.5c in Rhyl

Around 10c above average for the time of year

nothing like that here, severe frost to start, then cool/cold, much milder though from tomorrow, cloud and wind, warmer dew points I assume

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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Winter was short this year here, 3-3half weeks maybe. It was colder than average in that spell though

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On 24/11/2018 at 13:49, Summer Sun said:

 

Looking like Chris Fawkes made a good call re temperatures one of very few who called an above average winter

Wetter than average wasn't the right call but if it avoids flooding than that can't be a bad thing

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking like Chris Fawkes made a good call re temperatures one of very few who called an above average winter

Wetter than average wasn't the right call but if it avoids flooding than that can't be a bad thing

Sensible forecast, unlike fish 4 likes style posts on here

another sensible one was Ian Pennell

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Sensible forecast, unlike fish 4 likes style posts on here

another sensible one was Ian Pennell

So the winter was anything but wet, and January was average temp wise........but otherwise spot on HAHA

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7 minutes ago, Rambo said:

So the winter was anything but wet, and January was average temp wise........but otherwise spot on HAHA

Today I learnt that winter = January.

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And to add to the above, the large majority of winters since at least the 60's have been above average temp wise, so although his temp prediction was correct, it was more just good odds rather than anything else.

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