Winter 2018/19

[damianslaw]

Good to see the winter moving up the rankings in the index shown above, this is turning into quite a decent wintry spell - better than anything that occurred in some recent winter - but alas given the dearth of anything wintry in the first 6 weeks, we are languishing still at a low level. 

Still have February to go and I suspect it will enable the winter to move a few notches higher in the rankings but a fair bit behind winter 14/15. We only needs a few northerly or polar maritime blasts earlier in the winter and it would be much higher - the last 10 days of December killed things really.

[Summer Sun]

Updated cold weather alert

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:51 on Fri 1 Feb 2019

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Friday 01 Feb and 0900 on Monday 04 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Nil

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[Summer Sun]

Month ahead forecast from TWO

Quote

 

February weather: Changeable  

Forecast Issued 01/02/2019

Temperature

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Slightly below average in the south, slightly above average in the north.

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/30-day-uk-weather-forecast

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

2018-19: 42 (up to 1st Feb)

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[Summer Sun]

Winter over and out

Will winter return in February?

Posted Sat 2nd February 2019 14:30

Cold conditions continue in the short term but a change takes place early next week. Disturbances push in from the Atlantic and a predominantly west or southwesterly flow becomes established. It brings milder air across the UK, so is that it for the winter?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx?type=buzz&id=4699&title=Winter+over+and+out

[Summer Sun]

Late winter forecast from John Hammond

• Drier than normal
• Rather chilly
• Wettest in southwest

Full thought's for subscribers is here https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/02/late-winter-forecast-cold-weather-time/

[North-Easterly Blast]

Winter 2018-19, has, after a mild December with most of the country seeing little frost and snow, in the final two weeks of January and into the early days of this month, seen colder weather with snow for some parts of the country, but in the scope of things it has been no big freeze and nothing more than is typical in most winters in the UK. 

What has been disappointing is that the colder weather we have had recently has not been as significant a big freeze as some were expecting, and what the SSW could have helped to set up, and also the failed easterly around January 25th.  Up until around a week ago it looked favourable that we could see cold weather sticking around for much of February, but what is now very disappointing is that it now looks as though a milder SW flow will take over in the next few days, and that the carpet has been pulled out of any significant cold spell in February, although I suppose that the later part of February is still up for grabs.

[Don]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Late winter forecast from John Hammond

• Drier than normal
• Rather chilly
• Wettest in southwest

Full thought's for subscribers is here https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/02/late-winter-forecast-cold-weather-time/

Given the current model outlook, I won't be too upset if that comes off!

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2018-19: 48 (up to 3rd Feb)

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

All cold weather alerts have now expired and England is on level 1 until further notice

[Rambo]

19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All cold weather alerts have now expired and England is on level 1 until further notice

Does that mean I should stop panic buying then?

[Snowyowl9]

I always remember 1987-88 was a poor winter,this winter beats that.

Anyway February 1998 was a record breaker.

Edited February 4, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[Don]

1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

I always remember 1987-88 was a poor winter,this winter beats that.

Anyway February 1998 was a record breaker.

Tonight's ECM is showing a similar chart for the same date.......

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, Rambo said:

Does that mean I should stop panic buying then?

Still got March to get through yet, and we all know how topsy-turvy a month it can be

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Still got March to get through yet, and we all know how topsy-turvy a month it can be

First it was late December, then early January, mid January, late January, early February, mid February, late February and erm? Oh well, we can get snow in April!

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

First it was late December, then early January, mid January, late January, early February, mid February, late February and erm? Oh well, we can get snow in April!

Could we get a white Easter again it's that late this year the football league season finishes 2 weeks after

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could we get a white Easter again it's that late this year the football league season finishes 2 weeks after

More like a heatwave this year....

[Snowyowl9]

Even a poor winter can end on a Northerly.

[damianslaw]

Many a poor winter for cold and snow has ended with a northerly blast, 1993, 1995 and 1998 other examples. 2005 brought an easterly late Feb. 

Other years with potent northerlies end Feb/early March after not especially cold snowy winters were 2001, 2004 and 2006. Also must not forget the Easter northerly of 2008.

Up to this point winter 18/19 has just been very odd, heights have continued to look like positioning themselves in excellent places for sustained cold against a weak ineffectual atlantic, but alas have never been able to, when in other winters they probably would have..

I'm not enjoying it half as much as last winter which I thought was the best since 12/13 for cold and snow, but its also a far cry from the shockers of 13/14 and 15/16 which were absolutely dire in the main. Other terrible winters for anything especially cold and snowy were 88/89, 89/90, 97/98, 99/00, 06/07, 07/08, 16/17. Its also not quite been the snooze fest that was 91/92.

I'm talking as if it is ended, but we've got about another 6 weeks still to go, I include the first 3 weeks in March as winter still.

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

 

Up to this point winter 18/19 has just been very odd, heights have continued to look like positioning themselves in excellent places for sustained cold against a weak ineffectual atlantic, but alas have never been able to, when in other winters they probably would have..

 

The annoying aspect about this winter is that the high pressure spells have been largely mild. Christmas to mid January was frustrating. Too much cloud at times

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The annoying aspect about this winter is that the high pressure spells have been largely mild. Christmas to mid January was frustrating. Too much cloud at times

Yes we seem to have had the mildest weather during settled periods and our coldest weather when unsettled. Quite often it’s the other way around.

Lo and behold, mild on steroids looks possible later next week, with more high pressure.

[sundog]

This winter needs a bullet to the back of the head to put it out of its misery. At this stage I've given up on it. Waste of time.  

You got to know when to hold,m,            know when to fold,m,                                  know when to walk away,                          know when to run.

I'm folding my cards as regards winter 2018/19 and I'm out. I'm done. 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The annoying aspect about this winter is that the high pressure spells have been largely mild. Christmas to mid January was frustrating. Too much cloud at times

Yes, this is what rescued winters like 06 from being remembered poorly (abundant frost and fog even if nothing much happened). 

..

On the wider question of what went wrong there are a few things..

1) So firstly although the SSW did produce a -AO pattern statistically, it was largely on the Pacific side. The vortex splitting into three rather than two pieces on either side of the Atlantic put too much pressure on any building high. This (although the second half of Jan was fair as winter goes) meant that we missed our stratospheric moment. 

2) Tropical activity. As the chart below shows we have had three waves move across the Pacific this winter (generally speaking they drive up GLAAM and encourage blocking at the mid to high lattitudes. 

The first from around 10th-30th November did see reasonable blocking between say the 20th and 10th (late November saw easterlies even if not cold for more than 10 days, we then saw a second attempt for a week towards mid-December. It was essentially just unlucky that we never got cold from this.

The second from around 10th December-10th January was less effective as we did see a prolonged high pressure build from around the 25th to 10th but that was followed by the Atlantic, possibly because the SSW split being unfavourable overrode the tropical signal. In addition, the high was poorly positioned beforehand so it was actually on the mild side, especially by day. 

The third from around 20th Jan-Ongoing has done very little thus far except try and build pressure to our north east (unsuccessfully). Since we should have its effects until the 20th if not longer should GFS be correct than the jury is still out.

..

My main blame factors..

1) SSW split into three (unlucky essentially)

2) Atlantic SST profile which has been +NAO for months (although many don't believe the SST profile has that much impact we have had a +NAO tripole for months and that was always going to encourage a stronger thermal gradient. Perhaps too strong in this case.

[sunnijim]

We would have been better off with raging zonality in terms of snow prospects, the bore fest of limpet High pressure that ended December and lasted much of January set to return next week.

At least with passing deep  Depressions you can at times have 24hr Northerlys or a potent North westerly with snow for the favoured.

This theory that waiting round for a limpet High to somehow advance our snow prospects in the longer term has been proved to be the nonsense it always was.