Winter 2018/19

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

The UK and Ireland is one of the warmest parts of Europe this morning

[Summer Sun]

 

[Aleman]

23 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That one seems to miss out the cold that west Texas and Scottish highlands had. I have family there so keep an eye on them. Both saw snow and and significant cold snaps last month. Also, I have friends in Italy who were trying to complete installation of a new wood-fired heating boiler when it was getting quite chilly and that does not show up either. Weatherbell disagrees and saw none of the three areas as warm, as I would expect. I have to doubt models that don't get the local conditions I know about right (and they always seem to err too warm). I've never been able to fault Weatherbell so give it far greater credence. Weatherbell's December anomaly v 1981-2010 was +0.331C.

(Note the significant difference between the reported anomaly maps for for Africa, too.)

 

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2019 by Aleman

[Benvironment]

18 minutes ago, Aleman said:

That one seems to miss out the cold that west Texas and Scottish highlands had.

 

It's certainly been cold at times and there was a good snowy event mid month for much of upland Perthshire and southern highlands but compared to 'normal' Decembers (whatever those are these days) it's been noticeably milder than usual in the highlands I'd say. Fewer hard frosts. Thankfully there's not been any of those crazy 17C temps you get in some Decembers but even so, Moray and northwest highlands had night time temperatures in double figures between Christmas and New Year. I've certainly noticed it during my attempts to get snowy hillwalks this season, there's just been drizzle up north instead of snizzle, and on the few occasions I went up to Braemar in December it's been quite dispiriting to have it feeling more like October, with brown hills and swollen rivers

[Summer Sun]

 

[Aleman]

42 minutes ago, Benvironment said:

It's certainly been cold at times and there was a good snowy event mid month for much of upland Perthshire and southern highlands but compared to 'normal' Decembers (whatever those are these days) it's been noticeably milder than usual in the highlands I'd say. Fewer hard frosts. Thankfully there's not been any of those crazy 17C temps you get in some Decembers but even so, Moray and northwest highlands had night time temperatures in double figures between Christmas and New Year. I've certainly noticed it during my attempts to get snowy hillwalks this season, there's just been drizzle up north instead of snizzle, and on the few occasions I went up to Braemar in December it's been quite dispiriting to have it feeling more like October, with brown hills and swollen rivers

Note I did not say highlands were cold on Weatherbell or in my expectations, I was just not expecting them to show as warm, even if the southern half of Scotland was slightly. Thanks for the input, though. Temperatures on their own are a long way from the whole story so coal face reports are always of interest.

[Benvironment]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

Note I did not say highlands were cold on Weatherbell or in my expectations, I was just not expecting them to show as warm, even if the southern half of Scotland was slightly. Thanks for the input, though. Temperatures on their own are a long way from the whole story so coal face reports are always of interest.

No worries, point taken  Just getting frustrated with the winter as it's unfolded thus far  The winter hillwalking / snowshoeing season is the absolute highlight of the year for me and in 15 years I can't remember a worse start up here.

[Benvironment]

But then.......on reflection there have been plenty of winters that offered lots of good snowy outings in Oct/Nov/Dec but then fizzled out into Jan and Feb. 2012 springs to mind when all the upland snow disappeared and come 1st March NONE of the ski centres were open. Then we got that weird record breaking heat in March, and just a week later almost 3ft of northerly snow fell on the Cairngorms. The crazy lottery that is our weather

[Summer Sun]

Higher likelihood of colder episodes during the 2nd half of winter but obviously not guaranteed

 

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, Benvironment said:

No worries, point taken  Just getting frustrated with the winter as it's unfolded thus far  The winter hillwalking / snowshoeing season is the absolute highlight of the year for me and in 15 years I can't remember a worse start up here.

Yes it has been a woeful season so far for hill snow, reason being we have had a predominantly dry period with little precipitation, temps at times have been conducive to produce snow at relatively low levels, but we have just not had the frontal systems or showery systems. When any frontal systems have moved in - the air ahead has been too warm. Even in very mild winters, we would have had at least one or two decent doses on snow at highest levels by this stage - even if it does get washed away quickly. Winter 13/14 a good case in point, which produce snow at very high levels in December - lots of rain lower down.

Alas an expected marked change will take place next week, frontal systems and showery airstreams in uppers conducive to snowfall.

Winter 15/16 and 16/17 produced a short lived snowy weekend mid January, last year we also had quite a snowy mid Jan, hopefully this year will be the same.

 

[Mike Poole]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Higher likelihood of colder episodes during the 2nd half of winter but obviously not guaranteed

 

Yes, I watched that - interesting.  I suspect part of a carefully controlled communication strategy by the UKMO to drip feed info on what is now highly likely to come?

Edited January 8, 2019 by Mike Poole

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Like many on here, I would love to see a snowy episode like Feb 2018 repeated this year.  However, the prolonged high pressure we are experiencing right now is more preferable than a convoy of low pressure systems that we frequently get locked into.    My luck may be about to run out on that score next week..

Edited January 9, 2019 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Summer Sun]

 

 

[Isle of Harry]

Has anybody noticed how dry it's been recently or is it just the southeast? Over in my neck of the woods we've had no significant rainfall since 23rd December (17 days ago) and with dry conditions now set to continue into next week and a slight possibility of snowfall towards the end of the month, agriculture may struggle.

[MP-R]

20 minutes ago, Isle of Harry said:

Has anybody noticed how dry it's been recently or is it just the southeast? Over in my neck of the woods we've had no significant rainfall since 23rd December (17 days ago) and with dry conditions now set to continue into next week and a slight possibility of snowfall towards the end of the month, agriculture may struggle.

Same here - no measurable rain since 23rd December. Besides the weather being largely very boring, it's been great for drying the countryside out and getting out and about without having the oh so common mudbath issues.

[hillbilly]

Although the set up has had a potential beast of a winter for some time now it is ironic certainly in these parts that with the exception of a dusting of snow on very high ground here in the pennies we are approaching the 3rd week of January snowless for the winter.I think there has been one other winter when it got as late as 20th Jan before we had snow in these parts from my 40 +years of memory

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

45 sites have yet to record any rainfall this year

 

[Froze were the Days]

Yep dry really since Xmas time - but very very boring winter so far, one to forget unless some how this SSW can save us from the tedium!

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index is now up and running

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

2018-19: 9 (up to 9th Jan)

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Winter Index is now up and running

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

2018-19: 9 (up to 9th Jan)

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

where is 1985-86?

[Weather-history]

50 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

where is 1985-86?

159

[Weather-history]

Strange day, got foggier as the day went on

 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Weather-history

[damianslaw]

Yes its been an exceptionally 'kind' winter so far, with no storms, no really heavy rain, no snow, no very cold temperatures - indeed its been exceptionally calm overall thanks to this high pressure ruling the roost..

In mild winters you normally get the heavy rain and storms as well - but nothing so far.

Its all making for very easy going - no weather headlines to talk about - no-one can blame the weather for anything. Alas I'm now eager for something to kick start the winter - getting a bit impatient. Next week promises a change with finally perhaps some wintry weather to talk about.

We've had winters before with an absence of winter weather in the main, but usually cancelled out by distructive stormy wet weather, 13/14 and 15/16 being very good examples.

Winter 88/89 was exceptionally mild, I think many places didn't record there first air frost until third week of January... At least we've had a few air frosts so far, and come quite cold days at times, so it has felt wintry on occasion. 

Just waiting for the switch to flip - and winter 18/19 to finally get going..