Winter 2018/19

[Earthshine]

@coldie Nah my birthday is in May and a beach party at night ain't much fun when it's cold.  

Edited December 20, 2018 by Evening Star

[cheeky_monkey]

6 hours ago, Evening Star said:

Can spring please start in March next year?  Was fed up of the cold and snow this year and wanted something a bit warmer after such a long winter.

long winter.?..wana try living here every winter last from October 1 - Mid May...pretty much 6 months every year

[Earthshine]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

long winter.?..wana try living here every winter last from October 1 - Mid May...pretty much 6 months every year

Sounds horrendous and depressing.

[Mapantz]

It has been ridiculously wet here, with more rain to come. December is currently at 160.8mm. The average temp is running 3°C above the Met Office's average for this area. In fact, the period 1st November until today has seen less frosts than 2015, 2016, and 2017.

All good fun from a statistical point of view though.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Evening Star said:

Sounds horrendous and depressing.

its not so bad...its much sunnier than the UK and no rain

[Earthshine]

Cold weather is more bearable if it's sunny.  Much prefer it to cool and damp weather.  Since moving to Exeter the weather this December has been predominantly the latter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It has been ridiculously wet here, with more rain to come. December is currently at 160.8mm. The average temp is running 3°C above the Met Office's average for this area. In fact, the period 1st November until today has seen less frosts than 2015, 2016, and 2017.

All good fun from a statistical point of view though.

my EWP guess was 172mm, surely even I haven't underestimated rain in Dec?

[Earthshine]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It has been ridiculously wet here, with more rain to come. December is currently at 160.8mm. The average temp is running 3°C above the Met Office's average for this area. In fact, the period 1st November until today has seen less frosts than 2015, 2016, and 2017.

All good fun from a statistical point of view though.

Last sub -3C temperature here was back in October!

[damianslaw]

There has been a north-south split of sorts to start this winter, the north has seen near average temps, with some frost at times and a bit of snow on high ground - nothing much, and the coming days will continue in similiar vein, temps hovering in the 5-9 degree range, however, the south has been very mild in the main with few cooler days. 

Recent winters of 90s, 00s and 10s have seen very mixed Decembers, sometimes very mild, sometimes cold.

However, we have had cold winters following mild Decembers, 84/85 and 85/86 and 86/87 being three very good examples. Likewise we've had cold Decembers followed by mild remainder of winter 96/97, 10/11 being good examples.

Winter northern hemisphere base states tends to settle into its groove around christmas, a rampant vortex and atlantic flow at that time of year, can be hard to shift and suggests a probable zonal unsettled westerly winter - conversely a weak PV, high pressure fending off the atlantic around christmas as forecast this year, is not the norm, and probably indicates a much higher chance of blocked colder conditions rest of winter. 

Its unusual to see a high pressure forecast to languish and settle over the UK with such weak central core height pressure - it indicates the atlantic is really struggling.

[jules216]

I must say I am glad to have moved out of Ireland weather wise, since last week we had below -10, sunny crispy days and few appreciateble snow falls mainly yesterday around 10cm. That all in one week. Before we had rain every single day in Ireland thus far in December around mild windy days.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, jules216 said:

I must say I am glad to have moved out of Ireland weather wise, since last week we had below -10, sunny crispy days and few appreciateble snow falls mainly yesterday around 10cm. That all in one week. Before we had rain every single day in Ireland thus far in December around mild windy days.

We do have a rancid climate at the best of times, probably one of the most boring and undesirable in the world. What you describe sounds like bliss. I wouldn't even mind the stupid mildness we've had if it were at least dry and/or sunny.

Oh to shut off the Gulf Stream...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looking not good currently.....we suddenly have the ‘slug’ developing.....this is now reminding me of winter 07/08...the last winter before the last deep minimum which featured mid lat blocking.  There was a very near miss come New Year back then....models were suddenly homing in from slugsville to a seriously cold HP to our NE.  We looked stone bonker for it to eject serious bitter cold air SW over us Jan 2nd onwards....but with just 2 days to go the models picked up that the HP would suddenly stop in it’s tracks and sink south.  Let’s see what happens this time round.

 

BFTP

Edited December 21, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looking not good currently.....we suddenly have the ‘slug’ developing.....this is now reminding me of winter 07/08...the last winter before the last deep minimum which featured mid lat blocking.  There was a very near miss come New Year back then....models were suddenly homing in from slugsville to a seriously cold HP to our NE.  We looked stone bonker for it to eject serious bitter cold air SW over us Jan 2nd onwards....but with just 2 days to go the models picked up that the HP would suddenly stop in it’s tracks and sink south.  Let’s see what happens this time round.

 

BFTP

Why the surprise? That HP has been off Iberia, over Canaries for a few weeks now. As forecast by Spanish meto for Winter, dry and settled across Iberia this Winter. It is about to move into S Europe and poss migrate further North.

It is not a surprise at all. Changes maybe by mid-Jan?

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looking not good currently.....we suddenly have the ‘slug’ developing.....this is now reminding me of winter 07/08...the last winter before the last deep minimum which featured mid lat blocking.  There was a very near miss come New Year back then....models were suddenly homing in from slugsville to a seriously cold HP to our NE.  We looked stone bonker for it to eject serious bitter cold air SW over us Jan 2nd onwards....but with just 2 days to go the models picked up that the HP would suddenly stop in it’s tracks and sink south.  Let’s see what happens this time round.

 

BFTP

Any idea why it went so wrong in 2008? That was a monster high to our NE!

[cheese]

14 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my EWP guess was 172mm, surely even I haven't underestimated rain in Dec?

We've had 57mm here so far which is around average for December. Surprised it's been so wet elsewhere, but then I haven't really been paying much attention to the weather this month.

In fact, other than it being a little duller than normal I don't think this December has been particularly bad around these parts. 

Edited December 21, 2018 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

At least Christmas week is looking quiet weather wise no one will be getting delayed by heavy snow or indeed having to make plans for extended stays I just hope those flying out of Gatwick manage to depart in time after the idiots with the drones

[Don]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Looking not good currently.....we suddenly have the ‘slug’ developing.....this is now reminding me of winter 07/08...the last winter before the last deep minimum which featured mid lat blocking.  There was a very near miss come New Year back then....models were suddenly homing in from slugsville to a seriously cold HP to our NE.  We looked stone bonker for it to eject serious bitter cold air SW over us Jan 2nd onwards....but with just 2 days to go the models picked up that the HP would suddenly stop in it’s tracks and sink south.  Let’s see what happens this time round.

 

BFTP

But wasn’t other background signals completely different then i.e. La Niña, no SSW etc?

[DAVID SNOW]

14 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my EWP guess was 172mm, surely even I haven't underestimated rain in Dec?

I doubt it, probably end up close to average.

[jules216]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

We do have a rancid climate at the best of times, probably one of the most boring and undesirable in the world. What you describe sounds like bliss. I wouldn't even mind the stupid mildness we've had if it were at least dry and/or sunny.

Oh to shut off the Gulf Stream...

@MP-R There is something special about snow days before Christmas with all the festive spirit in the air, smell of cinnamon and home baking stuff, mulled wine when you get  back in from being outside. I will probably never grow old from being excited about the first proper wintry period and a bit of snow. Luckily here in central Europe although we do not have the 80ties style of winters anymore, it is still miles better IE/UK weather. Did enjoy the Feb/March snow in IE, though to my liking it came a bit too late when one is looking forward to spring already, you can not beat December snow in my eyes

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

@MP-R There is something special about snow days before Christmas with all the festive spirit in the air, smell of cinnamon and home baking stuff, mulled wine when you get  back in from being outside. I will probably never grow old from being excited about the first proper wintry period and a bit of snow. Luckily here in central Europe although we do not have the 80ties style of winters anymore, it is still miles better IE/UK weather. Did enjoy the Feb/March snow in IE, though to my liking it came a bit too late when one is looking forward to spring already, you can not beat December snow in my eyes

Yes we had another good dumping last night too!

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

@MP-R There is something special about snow days before Christmas with all the festive spirit in the air, smell of cinnamon and home baking stuff, mulled wine when you get  back in from being outside. I will probably never grow old from being excited about the first proper wintry period and a bit of snow. Luckily here in central Europe although we do not have the 80ties style of winters anymore, it is still miles better IE/UK weather. Did enjoy the Feb/March snow in IE, though to my liking it came a bit too late when one is looking forward to spring already, you can not beat December snow in my eyes

On the few occasions we've had a decent cold spell before Christmas in the UK, it really has been special. Just after is as special too, given the passing of the festive period and the ensuing depressing month that follows. In some ways I miss the Decembers of the 2000s, nearly all of which brought a cold spell of some sort by Christmas or just after.

2000 - 23rd onwards and a snowy northerly from the 27th

2001 - very frosty from the 10th onwards, with northerlies just before and after Christmas, and a frigid New Year (shame about the rest of the winter)

2002 - easterly with a little snow around the 10th

2003 - chilly feeling at least but not overly wintry

2004 - snowfall from a slider on the 19th then the northerly with snow showers on Christmas itself

2005 - the intermittently frosty lead up to Christmas then the easterly and snowy breakdown in the last week

2006 - even this month had a foggy frosty spell around Christmas

2007 - a 10-12 day long frosty and sometimes foggy spell leading up to Christmas

2008 - cold first half then very cold frosty/foggy from Christmas onwards

2009 - say no more

2010 - say even less!

Makes this December utter trash and, so far, worse than the likes of 2006!

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond still going for severe cold during January

• Green Christmas
• Quiet end to 2019 2018
• Increasing chance of severe cold in January

MONDAY 24TH DECEMBER – SUNDAY 30TH DECEMBER

Cloud, sun, frost, fog… but no snow

MONDAY 31ST DECEMBER – SUNDAY 6TH JANUARY                                   

High drama about to unfold?

MONDAY 7TH JANUARY – SUNDAY 20TH JANUARY

Severe cold threatens to sweep in

https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/20/john-hammond-month-weather-mild-bitter/

Edited December 21, 2018 by Summer Sun

[daz_4]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Yes we had another good dumping last night too!

Lucky!  No snow cover in my city in December and it will probably remain like that.

Edited December 21, 2018 by daz_4

[matt111]

19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Quiet end to 2019

Wow they’re forecasting that a year ahead.

[Mapantz]

17 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my EWP guess was 172mm, surely even I haven't underestimated rain in Dec?

The figure I provided was from my own station. Another 14mm from yesterday/last nights rain. The monthly total is now at 174.6mm. I've had 321mm since November 1st.