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Weather online's seasonal outlook for Jan and Feb

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Drier January

Colder February?

Issued: Saturday 24th November 2018 
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling


*January* 

Higher pressure to the south. 
Drier weather for most, maybe milder than average. 
Some colder days as winds turn to southeast, fog and frost risk. 
More mixed northwest Scotland. 
Possibly colder later in the month. 

*February*

A colder month seems likely. 
Threat of wintry weather, sleet and snow. 
Maybe that the cold weather lasts throughout the month. 
Sharp overnight frosts. 

 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

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7 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

You should add 1956 to the coldest winters, although the cold never reached the UK that was one of the coldest winters for continental western Europe 

The coldest Winters list is based on the Central England Temperature (CET) series and Winter 1955-56 had a CET of 2.9c so does not fit in the top 10 which that list was based on. Would appear if I made the list a bit longer.

As others said, early February 1956 brought a severely cold easterly in. It's kinda incredible how the transition happened from zonal to easterly.

archives-1956-1-28-0-0.thumb.png.bef88137f94f27edf29c080905724214.pngarchives-1956-2-1-0-0.thumb.png.8f3d5c7aefb562f8d29576bcc7aff2e0.pngarchives-1956-2-1-12-1.thumb.png.5cce8c343a23e20038885c7cb2230e4c.png

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Not sure where this should go as it does not fit the 6-15 or 15-30 day outlook by UK Met

 

Anyway this is their prediction for planners for this winter.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v2.pdf

Edited by johnholmes
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7 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

That's the old one.

okay then would you like to post the new one please?

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1 hour ago, Rambo said:

Its the latest available one, from 25th October. I'm assuming this months one will be available soon?

Yes, anytime now I would think.  Will be interesting to see what they go for, especially since the latest GLOSEA5 shows more blocked conditions.  My guess is they will go for higher chances of above average temps early on before trending colder later in winter.

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Gavs latest video around the seasonal models show a bias towards blocking! A lot has changed since the 25th of October in forecasting terms..

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3 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Gavs latest video around the seasonal models show a bias towards blocking! A lot has changed since the 25th of October in forecasting terms..

Indeed.  That’s why the upcoming update will be particularly interesting.

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So, before the 18z(s) roll, what has today told us?  Yesterday's 12z suite offered a smorgasbord of possibilities mostly with a strong element of high latitude blocking, although not all beneficial as far as UK cold is concerned.  

0z were a letdown (as usual - I'm sure there must be a scientific reason for this due to when the data is collected, I'm not imagining it...). 

Moving on.  Some sort of Arctic high looks highly probable.  Which means there is no coherent trop vortex, phew!  But a lot of runs seem to invigorate the jet across the Atlantic, without an obvious zonal patters, these look (slightly) suspect to me.  A few runs, more so on the ens, push Atlantic heights north towards Greenland, the earlier evolution of a Scandi high looks more probable maybe?  

And then there's the strat, FV3 has the best chart for that T336:

image.thumb.jpg.71347c546b4e61b10b14d63539467c4b.jpg

But no obvious SSW yet, weakens vortex a bit.  In my view the days ahead hold very interesting model viewing indeed.

Edit: Sorry, meant to put this in the MOD!

Edited by Mike Poole

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Still have more research to do but initial thoughts are good in terms of a colder Jan-Feb period. First half of Jan and Feb likely to be the coldest periods of the winter. Feb potentially very dry.

December likely to be mobile though not overly warm. March is likely to be relatively blocked near the UK, two of my analogues see 20c+.

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On 13/10/2018 at 12:50, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So an early look at my LRF for winter 2018/19.  Before I go into it I want to say I believe a winter to rival a 20th century great will occur within the next 3 winters.

Let’s start with why I believe this. Following taken from Spaceweather in relation to sunspot count.

2018 total: 165 days (58%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 

2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%) 
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

I compare 2018 to 2007 = 11 year cycle going forward.  We know the winter 09/10.  Potentially we could get an 07/08type winter...but I think we are past that as one can see we have still got 2 1/2 months to go and we are 13 more spotless days already....I think 190 but 200 is not insurmountable.  I am also not of opinion of Gavsvid updates that this year ‘could’ be solar minima.  19/20 imo more like it.  And if it continues as last minima.....moving on from this year we could be in territory not seen for over 200 years.  (Interesting RJS mentions 1819/22)

El Niño (weak?) so not unfavourable 

Will the cold Atlantic to our West be of relevance?

As already posted as snippets I think winter starts early.  So overall theme I feel prevalence of northern blocking with Scandi Blocking likely to be a player with at times an active jet bringing in LP systems but ultimately failing to upset the rhythm of winter.

 

December - colder than average.  I won’t put too much meat on bones yet but after a wintry first half I suspect blocking to be in place approaching Xmas and then an Atlantic trying to push in against a cold block that won’t give way (period of note possible). I say it won’t give way as I anticipate January to continue with the colder than average winter.

 

January - colder than average - 1st 10 days earmarked for potential coldest temps of winter with cold block established over (if anticipated) snowfields are widespread.  I think mid and backend of January to be potentially very snowy with LPs attempting to take over the ‘general’ pattern as I think the blocking will be at it’s most vulnerable as we enter February

 

February - Average overall but wet.  I think the rhythm eases somewhat and we could see winter wane.  There is a possibility that jetstream holds on southerly track and wintry conditions elongate but Atlantic vulnerability I’ll call it.  

 

A winter to match a 20th century great over next 3 winters?...means I am saying it could be this one.  For sure imo we have entered a period going forward where we could be in the game for some serious synoptic patterns.  Serious cold and long is still very achievable and imo going to become ever more achievable.

As always, with blocking if in wrong place then is a blow out......and Greece etc are locked into an ice age and we are distinctly average, bland even a touch mild....but better to have prevalent northern blocking to put us in the game for cold.

I’ll add more with what I identify as ‘periods of potential most impact’ in Nov..... 

BFTP

 

 

How happy are you with the December part of your forecast? Are you going to backtrack slightly? Any thoughts? 

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7 minutes ago, Mr Brown said:

How happy are you with the December part of your forecast? Are you going to backtrack slightly? Any thoughts? 

No backtrack, December starts tomorrow so the forecast hasn’t even started 😉.  Models trending colder, remember wintry isn’t snowmaggeddon....but of course isn’t mild.  As the 12z show, some ,ore tweaking and I’ll be very happy.  I’m very much of the opinion a more wintry set up will appear with (‘not anticipated’ snowfall by mainstream) very much in the mix as we go through the first half of Dec.

Last 10 days still a watch period of note for me ( impactual wintry weather period last week to 10 days)

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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I feel also that everything is slowly falling into place for blocking and cold outbreaks, a key period will be 19 to 23 Dec with a high energy peak that may occur as blocking starts to develop. That could produce diving low pressure (NW-SE track) followed by much colder temperatures in Britain and Ireland. 

The North American cold regime that was quite robust around mid-November has weakened somewhat in response to the onset of a classic west coast El Nino pattern (this sometimes brings mild Pacific air across the whole continent) but unlike say 1982-83 this El Nino is weaker and trying to lift a lot of weight with that earlier established eastern arctic blocking cold attached to Baffin Island - Greenland high pressure. So the December outlook in North America is for some resumed cold outbreaks into central and eastern regions, and the usual El Nino warmth in the west. I don't think it will overwhelm the jet stream and force a constant southwesterly, the recent spell has been that temporary response to the first major cold spells in NA. But it won't get worse, just oscillate between weaker versions of same and blocking.

If blocking became very robust before that energy peak then we could see an undercut like Jan 1 1979, probably something like that will happen at a later peak such as 3-6 Jan or 17-21 Jan. Would be surprised and seek out a safe place if there isn't at least one good wintry episode this winter and earlier than last year's injury time miracle. 

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On 28/11/2018 at 04:50, Weather-history said:

No idea what this means

 

It is merely a commentary on the nature of the Nino - and the specific "standing" forcing that the temperature profile creates. Long and short of it is that it assumes Nino is going to evolve. No particular surprise there - when do patterns ever sit still for 4 months? But bearing in mind it is created from the CFS interpretation of Nino I'd take it with the biggest pinch of salt possible because it is looking 6 weeks ahead. Our ability to nail down exactly what the ocean temperature is going to be at a month's range continues to be a matter of educated guesswork....and is one of the big reasons why NWP output gets so varied out at long range. 

However if that diagramme comes true it represents a strengthening of the warm water around the maritimes which would potentially enhance convection in the sought after 7-8-1 MJO orbit. It also shows a weakening of warm anomalies in the tropical atlantic and cooler waters there. Unsure the impact of this - atlantic impacts rarely (if ever) get talked about because in comparison to the pacific climate engine the atlantic plays much less of a role for the populated centres of the US and Europe which constitutes most of the weather audience in the northern hemisphere...and downstream impacts via torque and interaction with the Rockies and the Himalayas are another factor of the pacific engine and not the atlantic.

So - removing the atlantic discussion as of lesser (or unknown) importance the shifting of the warm anomalies from the indian ocean to the maritimes is not an issue if a cold outbreak is what you are after.

At least - that's my interpretation of it. Others may disagree. Teleconnections sourced from the pacific continue to arouse interesting levels of online forum friction and disagreement!

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14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I feel also that everything is slowly falling into place for blocking and cold outbreaks, a key period will be 19 to 23 Dec with a high energy peak that may occur as blocking starts to develop. That could produce diving low pressure (NW-SE track) followed by much colder temperatures in Britain and Ireland. 

The North American cold regime that was quite robust around mid-November has weakened somewhat in response to the onset of a classic west coast El Nino pattern (this sometimes brings mild Pacific air across the whole continent) but unlike say 1982-83 this El Nino is weaker and trying to lift a lot of weight with that earlier established eastern arctic blocking cold attached to Baffin Island - Greenland high pressure. So the December outlook in North America is for some resumed cold outbreaks into central and eastern regions, and the usual El Nino warmth in the west. I don't think it will overwhelm the jet stream and force a constant southwesterly, the recent spell has been that temporary response to the first major cold spells in NA. But it won't get worse, just oscillate between weaker versions of same and blocking.

If blocking became very robust before that energy peak then we could see an undercut like Jan 1 1979, probably something like that will happen at a later peak such as 3-6 Jan or 17-21 Jan. Would be surprised and seek out a safe place if there isn't at least one good wintry episode this winter and earlier than last year's injury time miracle. 

Hi Roger. Thank you for your updates. I have just read about a cme that has erupted on the sun and could give a glancing blow to earth and thus creating the potential for polar geomagnetic storms around the 5th Dec. Do you think we should be concerned about this? In other words, do you think this will fire up the Atlantic on a more northerly track therefore introducing much more mobility and unsettled, mild weather to the uk? 

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Blizzard81, the geomagnetic storm is striking us today and tomorrow. This is from the same very large coronal hole that’s sent geomagnetic storms our way once a month since July.  Indeed this is not unprecedented but unusual, and imo likely to aid winter chances.  From here I anticipate improved model output for cold regime to show more and more after this current mild blip.  I certainly don’t think our chances will be harmed by them.

 

BFTP

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30 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Blizzard81, the geomagnetic storm is striking us today and tomorrow. This is from the same very large coronal hole that’s sent geomagnetic storms our way once a month since July.  Indeed this is not unprecedented but unusual, and imo likely to aid winter chances.  From here I anticipate improved model output for cold regime to show more and more after this current mild blip.  I certainly don’t think our chances will be harmed by them.

 

BFTP

Hi Blast 

i live in the south you regen will have chance of seeing some decent snow this winter as down here we never really get much ? 

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Just now, iceman1991 said:

Hi Blast 

i live in the south you regen will have chance of seeing some decent snow this winter as down here we never really get much ? 

Yes....I’m in Redhill near Gatwick.....I think Xmas week best be where you intend to spend Xmas hols

 

BFTP

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Interesting that globally we are 0.37 above average now.  Quicksilver1989 was posting the charts and I seem to remember we were 0.56, then 0.46 but of note there was a massive cold anomaly across Siberia to Kazakhstan and into Turkey, large chunks of Africa and almost the entire continent of South America. Those anomalies still stand....some cold anomalies in Arctic as well.....

 

BFTP

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Blizzard81....re the glancing blow on 5th Dec....this is from a CME....an extra to Coronal hole solar hit, indeed this is a potential feature of us getting hit after hit after hit.  Expect wild jetstream meandering and NOT a flat jet.  This really is getting interesting

 

BFTP

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