Winter 2018/19

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

This depends on location. Here in Leeds Jan 13 was epic and provided my 3rd highest snow totals in the past 20 years. It was also different to both 2010 winters because it was frontal.

was here too, Friday 18th Jan, legendary day

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-18-0-0.pnghttps://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-18-12-0.png

Edited November 24, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

was here too, Friday 18th Jan, legendary day

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-18-0-0.pnghttps://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-18-12-0.png

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just testing this to see if i can still post charts after the change

Edited November 24, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Paul]

You just need to save the image locally and upload it to your post. Remotely linking won't work.

[Always a red]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

[Don]

Well, this should please some who want a cold winter......

 

[summer blizzard]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

was here too, Friday 18th Jan, legendary day

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-18-0-0.pnghttps://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archives-2013-1-18-12-0.png

What impressed me most was the repetitive nature of the frontal attacks and how moisture laden/large flakes we had. Prior experience of 'Atlantic battlegrounds' had been for something like 12th March 06 where a few hours of snow would produce 2 inches as the front died against the block. 

I still think your quasi-stationary occlusions fronts from the east that are horizontal are best even if you do run the danger of pushing in warmer air from the north Sea. 25th Feb 05 and 2nd December 2010 were two such examples when it all came good. Albeit Feb 06 and Feb 09 did see the poor versions with too much warm air limiting the falls here (though in 09 Leeds-Bradford airport with more elevation did get 7 inches from my 5cm event). 

Best fall of course was 6th Jan 2010 which was something i fear i may not experience again. 21cm in 10 hours at ~200m asl. Front came from the north (unusually heavy from the off but then a wave developed in the channel forcing a stall as that became the primary center. 

2018 was pretty good considering it was all showers (i think i measured 9 or 12cm maximum) but pretty short for the snowfall aspect even if we froze for two weeks with the epic windchill (something i had not properly experienced to such a degree - it is rare cold weather makes me turn back). 

[Weather-history]

58 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I am surprised he mentions Cohen's snow index. I didn't think that would be that considered by the larger community. Infact, he doesn't even mention solar activity. I would have thought that would be of importance. 

I'm slightly surprised to be honest. There is no straight forward relationship with El Nino, QBO, etc, its a matter of whether they increases the chances of an outcome. 

[Tim Bland]

He’s not buying any strat warming having an effect. Re sunspot activity ...there is no proven scientific link between that and an effect on our weather at surface level so why should this factor ? 

[BruenSryan]

I'd rate solar activity higher than ENSO or QBO for correlation given my research although even solar activity has its odd ones out. All elements have to be considered rather than taking one completely as a basis. 

One thing I know that definitely points towards a mild Winter is the Atlantic SST anomalies, they are just not conducive to negative NAO going by the UKMO methodology. 

Edited November 24, 2018 by BruenSryan

[feb1991blizzard]

Nothing to worry about then lads - he doesn't think solar cycle is important.

[Froze were the Days]

Just one man's view - doesn't bother me, more seasonal models are going for a colder than average one rather than milder particularly back loaded it now seems.

[JeffC]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nothing to worry about then lads - he doesn't think solar cycle is important.

Indeed... So. Solar output doesn't impact the weather and climate of the earth, which is why the Maunder and Dalton minima impacted as they did?

As others have observed, no one driver makes any given outcome an absolute, but individually they influence things and sometimes 1+1+1+1=4, whereas 2+2 can often equal zero because they work against each other. 

Probably not explained that very well. 

I used to rate Chris Fawkes, if only for his great great great great great great grandfather's attempts at fettling the politics of the day! 

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Indeed... So. Solar output doesn't impact the weather and climate of the earth, which is why the Maunder and Dalton minima impacted as they did?

As others have observed, no one driver makes any given outcome an absolute, but individually they influence things and sometimes 1+1+1+1=4, whereas 2+2 can often equal zero because they work against each other. 

Probably not explained that very well. 

I used to rate Chris Fawkes, if only for his great great great great great great grandfather's attempts at fettling the politics of the day! 

I dont know about his great grandfather but i agree with the first sentence, solar output does have a slight impact on our climate.................

 

[Mapantz]

Let's not turn this in to a mud slinging contest just because you don't agree with him. He has his own opinions, you have yours.

[JeffC]

23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I dont know about his great grandfather but i agree with the first sentence, solar output does have a slight impact on our climate.................

 

I was thinking of Guy Fawkes.... 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Let's not turn this in to a mud slinging contest just because you don't agree with him. He has his own opinions, you have yours.

Believe it or not, i still don't think this is going to be the stonker winter that some people think on here, i think there will be some short periods of extremeties rather than an extreme winter overall, however, you cant say solar outpur doesnt affect our weather.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, JeffC said:

I was thinking of Guy Fawkes.... 

Hahaha!

Edited November 24, 2018 by Don

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 you cant say solar outpur doesnt affect our weather.

He didn't say that though...

[JeffC]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Let's not turn this in to a mud slinging contest just because you don't agree with him. He has his own opinions, you have yours.

Indeed so, and I personally don't have the same training as he does. But I'm not sure the two major minima in the last millennium can be discounted 

[SMU]

I did have to correct him on the fact the vortex isnt getting colder...

[ArHu3]

12 hours ago, BruenSryan said:

I'd rate solar activity higher than ENSO or QBO for correlation given my research although even solar activity has its odd ones out. All elements have to be considered rather than taking one completely as a basis. 

One thing I know that definitely points towards a mild Winter is the Atlantic SST anomalies, they are just not conducive to negative NAO going by the UKMO methodology. 

You should add 1956 to the coldest winters, although the cold never reached the UK that was one of the coldest winters for continental western Europe 

[Bristawl Si]

I think the Russian high will be our foe this Winter. UK will be the parking 'lot' for atlantic troughs. Hunch only.

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

You should add 1956 to the coldest winters, although the cold never reached the UK that was one of the coldest winters for continental western Europe 

Yes, and late Jan into February that year was frigid in the UK too. Just look at the archive chart for Feb 1st 1956.

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Yes, and late Jan into February that year was frigid in the UK too. Just look at the archive chart for Feb 1st 1956.

Indeed the temp here in Dorset dropped from 8c at 8am on 31st Jan 1956 to minus 2c by midday as the cold wave came west out of Europe