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Winter 2018/19


syed2878

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, and good riddance.

but just hope it dosen't lead to a lousy Spring, must be high chance of N/E winds during April/May

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Well we aren't at the end of winter yet, but with no cold spell on the horizon it's worth putting in an early review of winter 2018/19. 

Until the cold spell a couple of weeks ago, this winter was turning out to be pretty dire for snow. Until then we'd barely even had a frost down here. 

Two light to moderate snowfalls here in London on the 22nd of Jan and 1st of Feb (a few cm's each) helped pull things around a little. 

Assuming we see no more snowfall this winter, then 2018/19 will go down as relatively poor, but not a disaster. It was a very mild December and first two thirds of January. Also looks like being a very mild second half of Feb. 

As underwhelming as this winter has been, we have seen far worse. 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 were virtually snowless. 2013/14 had frequent bouts of wind and rain - the worst kind of winter weather in my opinion. This winter has been pretty mild oveall, but it has also been quite settled - which in my opinion is a good thing. I would prefer cold, frosty settled weather to mild, settled, however the latter is definitely better than a raging jet with barrelling lows piling in giving frequent wind and rain. 

Out of 10, I'd give this winter a 4. Poor, but I've seen far worse.

Edited by danm
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I'd give this winter a 0, just 3 dustings that never lasted even 2 hours

Somerset/Bath etc are the snowiest locations I'd say (away from Scotland) they get full whack of systems from the SW

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Agree with the above, what is frustrating about the winter, is we have had a run with the exception of last year, some preety woeful ones for snow and cold, some of the worst on record in 13/14 and 15/16. We are being dealt a poor run, but we've been here before winter 71/72 - 75/76, 87/88- 92/93 (exception 90/91), 97/98-07/08 (yes 00/01 wasn't that bad overall, and Dec 01 was ok along with 05/06), now 13/14 - to 18/19 at least except last year).

Things will break again no doubt and a decent winter will pop up again.. hopefully next winter, and certainly you can never discount cold and snow until April is out..

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
9 hours ago, jules216 said:

I agree very much so and would like to see consecutive winters with -PDO and also with a reasonable Atlantic tripole signature. Then see what NAO response it does create in winter

It will be interesting to see if the AMO is entering a more negative phase too given that it has tended to rebound once Nino events end rather than stay negative.

11 minutes ago, danm said:

Well we aren't at the end of winter yet, but with no cold spell on the horizon it's worth putting in an early review of winter 2018/19. 

Until the cold spell a couple of weeks ago, this winter was turning out to be pretty dire for snow. Until then we'd barely even had a frost down here. 

Two light to moderate snowfalls here in London on the 22nd of Jan and 1st of Feb (a few cm's each) helped pull things around a little. 

Assuming we see no more snowfall this winter, then 2018/19 will go down as relatively poor, but not a disaster. It was a very mild December and first two thirds of January. Also looks like being a very mild second half of Feb. 

As underwhelming as this winter has been, we have seen far worse. 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 were virtually snowless. 2013/14 had frequent bouts of wind and rain - the worst kind of winter weather in my opinion. This winter has been pretty mild oveall, but it has also been quite settled - which in my opinion is a good thing. I would prefer cold, frosty settled weather to mild, settled, however the latter is definitely better than a raging jet with barrelling lows piling in giving frequent wind and rain. 

Out of 10, I'd give this winter a 4. Poor, but I've seen far worse.

This. Were it not for the abysmal lack of snow (largely because northerlies and north westerlies been more dominant) this would not be near the bottom of the pile.

2013/2014 was no winter, it was a hellish endless Autumn which failed to produce any lying snow at all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'd give this winter a 0, just 3 dustings that never lasted even 2 hours

Somerset/Bath etc are the snowiest locations I'd say (away from Scotland) they get full whack of systems from the SW

We're looking highly likely to go an entire winter here in Darlo without 1 disruptive snowfall I can't remember when that last happened even in the mild winters of past we've always had one heavy fall. Not this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Summer Sun said:

We're looking highly likely to go an entire winter here in Darlo without 1 disruptive snowfall I can't remember when that last happened even in the mild winters of past we've always had one heavy fall. Not this winter.

Ay, need a convective ESE'ly I'd say for snow there with -8 or colder uppers, in other words true beast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, need a convective ESE'ly I'd say for snow there with -8 or colder uppers, in other words true beast

It tried at the beginning of the month but the showers from the sea where hit n miss and those that were 'heavy' only lasted 10 mins or so

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

I think the most galling thing for cold and snow lovers this winter has been the constant misguidance from the models to build high pressure to our north or over Scandi in the medium term. 

The most laughable thing from this winter is that the 10cm fall of snow I did get was was supplied by a low pressure channel runner running into the base of a massive trough of low pressure .

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

2013/2014 was worse from a snow perspective, since that winter had no lying snow whatsoever. This winter isn’t far behind though.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, cheese said:

2013/2014 was worse from a snow perspective, since that winter had no lying snow whatsoever. This winter isn’t far behind though.

2cms from Atlantic air on 11th Feb 2014, would rate it slightly better than this, not had 2cms this season, not close

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
19 minutes ago, cheese said:

2013/2014 was worse from a snow perspective, since that winter had no lying snow whatsoever. This winter isn’t far behind though.

2013/14 was the worst winter in my memory.  Didn’t even see sleet, let alone snow.  Plus, lots of people were flooded in the Thames valley and some had to wait months before returning home!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The Beebs forecast at 22:45 talk about rubbing salt in the wounds for UK coldies showing them skiing in the streets across the pond and maybe another 40cm of snow later this week.

Then panning across to the UK high pressure and 14c for some

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
10 hours ago, cheese said:

2013/2014 was worse from a snow perspective, since that winter had no lying snow whatsoever. This winter isn’t far behind though.

Winter 2013-14 was the worst from any perspective, here. Just 3 air frosts during the whole meteorological winter. That's how bad it was. I actually wrote off that winter at the end of January in a post on here. 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
14 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but just hope it dosen't lead to a lousy Spring, must be high chance of N/E winds during April/May

That’s exactly what’s going to happen, and I don’t write off the chance of a poor May this time round. I really hope I’m wrong, but if we have an early spring spell, it usually often leads to a poor early summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.

No it doesn’t. There’s no statistical basis for that just like there’s no basis for saying a warm spring means a cool summer (I’ve read this a million times on here!)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
3 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

That’s exactly what’s going to happen, and I don’t write off the chance of a poor May this time round. I really hope I’m wrong, but if we have an early spring spell, it usually often leads to a poor early summer.

I actually have been thinking the same. Although we could see Azores dominance or just a turn to westerlies i do think that when we get close to the final warming with such a persistant high likely to be nearby, we are likely to see some form of retrogression and so probably a poor April.

May's are usually like September and a bit forgetable though i do think Nino May's tend to anecdotally see more heat.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

Rather than put my thoughts in the Cold Rampers thread which is now a bearpit full of angry young bears upset they've had no snow, we'll try the hopefully more refined waters of this thread.

Part of my working life revolves around post-event analysis and I always approach these projects with two questions in mind:

1) What Happened and Why Did It Happen? - this is 95% of the time and it's quite boring because you have all the information and it's not terribly difficult to ascertain a pattern or sequence of events.

2) What Should Have Happened and Why Did It Not? - this is the really interesting 5% and clients trying to work out what went wrong rarely start from here. It's amazing how often people expect something to happen and are completely flummoxed when it doesn't. A confirmatory mindset takes over and they repeat the same event, get the same result and start wondering what has gone wrong.

Anyone seeking to analyse Winter 2018-19 for the UK should start with the second question.  Nick F's blog this morning is a superb analysis of the first part of the first question though as with all of us enthusiastic amateurs the "why" requires more information than to which we have access. It's disconcerting to see organisations such as ECM and UKMO with access to far larger information resources and infinitely more sophisticated and detailed computer modelling still get it wrong but at the same time mildly encouraging for those who like to think there are mysteries still to be solved.

I'm left with four discordant and possibly unrelated observations as I try to fathom the questions above:

1) Where has all the Fog Gone? - whether caused by AGW or not, the thought I had this morning was another winter has gone by with barely any morning fog. If I were in the physics game, I'd be wondering whether a warmer world creates more energy in the atmosphere making for a more mobile atmospheric environment. More energy in the atmosphere might mean a stronger PV with all that flows (so to speak) from that. I'd love to know what the PV looked like in the mediaeval warm period or during the late 17th Century. Did it exist? Is it where it is now? Did it behave as it does now? It is such a crucial part of the pattern especially as it draws intensely cold air down into North America and encourages cyclogenesis and fires up the Atlantic jet.

2) When is an SSW not an SSW? -  it's now clear the SSW of January 2019 was a very different creature from the SSW of February 2018. The latter was akin to the flushing of a toilet with hot water - this swept down the atmosphere shredding the PV and allowing the cold air to flow down (and more importantly the warmer air to flow up), Within less than 3 weeks from the actual vortex split, we were looking at a significant cold outbreak. We were told then (and indeed at the New Year) not all SSWs work favourably for NW Europe and this one obviously hasn't. I'm less convinced what we saw wasn't an actual SSW but a very strong Wave 1 displacement. These, as we know, usually come from the Eurasian side and shunt the PV lobe back to the Canadian side. They rarely do us any favours apart from as a cumulative effect weakening and destabilising the PV.  We rarely get a warming from the Canadian side (I believe the 62-63 cold spell originated with a Canadian Warming) and it's worth asking why these don't happen. Even now there's no sign of another Wave 1 and while the PV is weakening as we head to month end the comparison with 2018 is incredible. Oddly enough, the best recent comparison is with 2013 - yes, I know.

3) Don't Drink The Water - one or two individuals who were less bullish about the winter than many cited the Atlantic SSTs as a factor behind their caution and after this winter's forecasting debacle it's worth considering this. Are we seeing as was postulated in a certain movie glacial meltwater entering the ocean and lowering the temperature? I'm not convinced but at a time of generally warming oceans parts of the Atlantic remain cold:

 https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomnight.2.11.2019.gif

Curiously, we are now seeing some quite warm water off the eastern seaboard of CONUS so I wonder if that explains why the Atlantic LP are slowing and deepening ? It's one to keep an eye on and an indicator worth revisiting for further analysis.

4) It's the Sun, Stupid - a final thought occurred when doing some reading and I picked up a comment that the winter immediately prior to a solar minimum is often mild in north west Europe. No explanation as to why this should be and I'm not convinced the analysis tells a good story as the Modern Maximum was a huge event but we still got some very cold winters (I'm still wondering if that was related to sulphur dioxide emissions). Clearly, the Maunder and Dalton Minimums were significant periods for colder winters but the 11-year cycle is relevant. Looking at winter 2008-09 there were two significant cold spells but overall it was fairly mild. IF this is valid, it may be the proponents of a cold winter were simply a year too early with both 2019-20 and 2020-21 looking much better. That said, will this minimum be as strong as the 2009-10 Minimum? It will need to be to deliver the cold and snow many on here want.

As the song says, there are "more questions than answers" and I don't have a lot of the latter. I appreciate the angst of the young bears but there's no need to rail against forecasters, climatologists or each other. If you want to understand the weather better, start learning about it. NW has plenty of information as a starting point.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Anything above 15.3c tomorrow in Scotland and it'll be the warmest February 14th on record

2019, trend certainly isn't cooler Dec to Feb

what's the chances of at least 1 date warm record going every year, somewhere between Dec 1, to late Mar, from 2019? high I'd say

but I do believe in mild

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

2019, trend certainly isn't cooler Dec to Feb

what's the chances of at least 1 date warm record going every year, somewhere between Dec 1, to late Mar, from 2019? high I'd say

but I do believe in mild

It certainly seems that getting warm records is far easier than cold records.

The only thing we've still never managed (yet) is a 20c day in winter

19.7c is the closest we've got back on February 13th 1998

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It certainly seems that getting warm records is far easier than cold records.

The only thing we've still never managed (yet) is a 20c day in winter

19.7c is the closest we've got back on February 13th 1998

I actually believe that somewhere in the country even got to 18*C on one occasion in January 2003.  February 2008 also saw 18*C somewhere in the second week of that month I think.  I think that there have been odd other rare instances of somewhere in the country reaching 18*C in a winter month, but I think that the Feb 1998 example is the only instance of 19*C anywhere in the country earlier than March.  I believe although am not 100% sure, that the earliest 20*C in the year, anywhere in the UK was during the early days of March 1977.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I actually believe that somewhere in the country even got to 18*C on one occasion in January 2003.  February 2008 also saw 18*C somewhere in the second week of that month I think.  I think that there have been odd other rare instances of somewhere in the country reaching 18*C in a winter month, but I think that the Feb 1998 example is the only instance of 19*C anywhere in the country earlier than March.  I believe although am not 100% sure, that the earliest 20*C in the year, anywhere in the UK was during the early days of March 1977.

18.3 is the record for both December and January it was last hit in 1948 and 2003 respectively

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

, but I think that the Feb 1998 example is the only instance of 19*C anywhere in the country earlier than March.  I believe although am not 100% sure, that the earliest 20*C in the year, anywhere in the UK was during the early days of March 1977.

There have been 19+C in February before......1891 and 1990

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