Winter 2018/19

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

that's no snow then 11-20 Jan, and no Scandi HP until late Feb

A Fleeting Scandi, so yes you’re probably right

 

BFTP

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 and I’m surprised there weren’t any bites.

Or you forgot what you posted?

[abruzzi spur]

Ah, it must have been the use of well concealed (some might say non-existent) subtlety that threw me....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Or you forgot what you posted?

Not at all, made that CET guess 30/12 and made a reply to Bristle Boy on 31/12 re reverse psychology.  Anyway it’ll probably flunk like Dec...but let’s hope not...but we have a knack of having cold shunted too Far East and that is a concern when the way to cold is for HP to shift west to allow troughs dropping down NW/SE.

 

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

The things is, Fred, that peeps don't know which forecast to believe...your LRF or 'other' predictions?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

none of 'em Ed

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The things is, Fred, that peeps don't know which forecast to believe...your LRF or 'other' predictions?

Mix them all up a Pete, the answer will be in there .....we have a real chance ahead....at least it’s a chance

 

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

John Hammonds latest monthly forecast

• Huge uncertainty
• Risk of severe cold from mid-month
• Longevity unclear

Full forecast for subscribers here: https://weathertrending.com/2019/01/04/john-hammond-month-ahead-beast-returns/

[Stonethecrows]

59 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

John Hammonds latest monthly forecast

• Huge uncertainty
• Risk of severe cold from mid-month
• Longevity unclear

Full forecast for subscribers here: https://weathertrending.com/2019/01/04/john-hammond-month-ahead-beast-returns/

Very different to the above average temps, wind and rain that his old employers the beeb are saying.

[Don]

19 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Very different to the above average temps, wind and rain that his old employers the beeb are saying.

The latest BBC weather monthly outlook updated on the 29th December suggests increased risks of cold weather as January progresses.  Which forecasters are saying above average temps and wind and rain?

[Stonethecrows]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

The latest BBC weather monthly outlook updated on the 29th December suggests increased risks of cold weather as January progresses.  Which forecasters are saying above average temps and wind and rain?

Their 29th dec update says it could get colder the last week of the month yes but the rest of the update - It also looks a little windier than average in most areas.  Temperatures will probably be near normal, perhaps a little bit above normal for central and eastern England and a little cooler than normal for Scotland. The main alternative to this scenario is that the ridge of high pressure will be slower to decline and could linger close to the UK.  This would mean that the weather remains drier and less windy in the south, but wetter and windier for the north, particularly Scotland.  It would also remain milder than normal too.But before we get to the colder weather, we expect the middle of the month to be unsettled with rainfall at or above average and with the potential for some windy weather too.  Temperatures are likely to be near or perhaps a little below normal at this stage.  

How does the part i highlighted equate to Hammond's risk of severe cold from mid month.

[Summer Sun]

Level 2 cold weather alert issued for parts of England

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:55 on Fri 4 Jan 2019

There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather between 1500 on Thursday 03 Jan and 0000 on Sunday 06 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Generally cold across the UK, with widespread frost and patches of freezing fog across the West Midlands, Central Southern England, Southwest England, and perhaps Northeast England. Increased cloud across the Northwest has reduced the risk of reaching cold weather criteria there. Milder conditions developing across England over the weekend.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[Bristawl Si]

I think the subtle differences in UK weather forecasts for rest of January across a number of weather agencies just shows the high level of uncertainty past mid-month. Wait and see, relax is best practice.

[Stonethecrows]

16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Level 2 cold weather alert issued for parts of England

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:55 on Fri 4 Jan 2019

There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather between 1500 on Thursday 03 Jan and 0000 on Sunday 06 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Generally cold across the UK, with widespread frost and patches of freezing fog across the West Midlands, Central Southern England, Southwest England, and perhaps Northeast England. Increased cloud across the Northwest has reduced the risk of reaching cold weather criteria there. Milder conditions developing across England over the weekend.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

so do the think the 30 dayer will be drastically altered aswell?

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

so do the think the 30 dayer will be drastically altered aswell?

We'll find out imminently if the EC46 update will have influenced it as well

[Weather-history]

44 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Level 2 cold weather alert issued for parts of England

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:55 on Fri 4 Jan 2019

There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather between 1500 on Thursday 03 Jan and 0000 on Sunday 06 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

Generally cold across the UK, with widespread frost and patches of freezing fog across the West Midlands, Central Southern England, Southwest England, and perhaps Northeast England. Increased cloud across the Northwest has reduced the risk of reaching cold weather criteria there. Milder conditions developing across England over the weekend.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

I am trying to be indifferent about this but I can't help feel there is a bit OTT about this. It looks  bog standard winter anticyclonic conditions, yet we got that saying 60% probablity of severe cold. Severe cold?! Severe cold was 1st March last year. 

Are we going to have this alert everytime there is a winter anticyclone? 

[Essan]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I am trying to be indifferent about this but I can't help feel there is a bit OTT about this. It looks  bog standard winter anticyclonic conditions, yet we got that saying 60% probablity of severe cold. Severe cold?! Severe cold was 1st March last year. 

Are we going to have this alert everytime there is a winter anticyclone? 

What's OTT about it?   It's for nurses, doctors and care workers who may be looking after persons vulnerable to cold weather.   

And the lowest temp I recorded in all the "severe cold" last Feb/Mar was -6.1c    Which is only 1.5c colder than it was today. 

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Very different to the above average temps, wind and rain that his old employers the beeb are saying.

Good God!...another uncertain prediction, shall we toss a coin?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Essan said:

What's OTT about it?   It's for nurses, doctors and care workers who may be looking after persons vulnerable to cold weather.   

And the lowest temp I recorded in all the "severe cold" last Feb/Mar was -6.1c    Which is only 1.5c colder than it was today. 

I recorded daytime max temps of not much higher than that on the Wednesday of that cold spell.

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Essan said:

What's OTT about it?   It's for nurses, doctors and care workers who may be looking after persons vulnerable to cold weather.   

And the lowest temp I recorded in all the "severe cold" last Feb/Mar was -6.1c    Which is only 1.5c colder than it was today. 

OK, however I point out that the cold at the start of March 2018 was a frigid airmass, very low dew points and strong winds, hence severe wind chill. Plus it was accompanied by snow. 

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

OK, however I point out that the cold at the start of March 2018 was a frigid airmass, very low dew points and strong winds, hence severe wind chill. Plus it was accompanied by snow. 

They issued a level 3 alert for that.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

OK, however I point out that the cold at the start of March 2018 was a frigid airmass, very low dew points and strong winds, hence severe wind chill. Plus it was accompanied by snow. 

Yes ridiculous wind chill, i was walking to shop on the thursday and i saw snow being blown 30 or 40 ft into the air and 50 ft away, belatedly the MO then upgraded the wind warning to amber, i swear there must have been hurricane force gusts here, its the coldest i have felt since Dec 2010 or even Feb 1991, i exclude Jan 2010 in that because the coldest temps were when winds were light plus i was in Salford - a stones throw away from Manchester city centre so wasn't as cold as surrounding areas.

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes ridiculous wind chill, i was walking to shop on the thursday and i saw snow being blown 30 or 40 ft into the air and 50 ft away, belatedly the MO then upgraded the wind warning to amber, i swear there must have been hurricane force gusts here, its the coldest i have felt since Dec 2010 or even Feb 1991, i exclude Jan 2010 in that because the coldest temps were when winds were light plus i was in Salford - a stones throw away from Manchester city centre so wasn't as cold as surrounding areas.

The wind strength was extraordinary from that direction, I can't recall winds being that strong from the east before. I booked that week off well in advance and it just happen to coincide with the easterly blast. Went on to the Moss to do filming of the drifting snow on that Thursday and the cold was really numbing, the wind chill was fierce. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The wind strength was extraordinary from that direction, I can't recall winds being that strong from the east before. I booked that week off well in advance and it just happen to coincide with the easterly blast. Went on to the Moss to do filming of the drifting snow on that Thursday and the cold was really numbing, the wind chill was fierce. 

Yes i actually prefer cold due to my health, however, i thought i was going to die just walking back from the shop, i take it you are referring to Holme Moss (somewhere on the A628?)

Edited January 4, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i actually prefer cold due to my health, however, i thought i was going to die just walking back from the shop, i take it you are referring to Holme Moss (somewhere on the A628?)

Sorry, I meant Chat Moss near where I live and that is only about 20ft above sea level but it was more like the high Pennines.